2026 05 03 Feed Apricitas Americas Electricity GAP

Summary

Politano argues the US faces a structural electricity shortage: commercial power consumption from AI/data centers is expected to grow more in four years post-ChatGPT than in the prior two decades. Despite record solar/battery investment, the gap between demand growth and supply growth is widening. Electricity prices have risen more over the last 4 years than the prior 14. This directly supports the nuclear-baseload-for-AI-data-centers chain — dispatchable 24/7 power (nuclear) commands an increasing premium over intermittent renewables.

Article

US power consumption has risen more in the last two years than over the previous 15 combined. Despite record renewable energy investments and deployment, this growth has outpaced generation expansion, driving up prices and forcing the retention of aging coal plants.

Primary demand drivers:

AI/Data Centers: Commercial power consumption is expected to grow more in four years post-ChatGPT than in the prior two decades. Hyperscaler capex continues to be revised upward — a structural demand signal, not a cyclical spike.

Industrial electrification: Manufacturing facilities coming online from the 2022-2023 construction surge are adding material baseload demand. IRA-driven reshoring of EVs, batteries, and solar manufacturing requires large industrial power loads.

Transportation and heating: Growing EV adoption and residential electrification are adding to grid stress, particularly in peak demand periods.

Supply response:

Solar generation increased 28% in 2025, projected to reach 11.3% of total electricity by 2027. Battery storage capacity expected to double over the next two years to almost 90GW. Texas alone accounts for 55% of new US battery capacity and 41% of new solar capacity.

The structural problem:

Despite these investments, generation growth remains insufficient. The mismatch is structural, not cyclical: solar and batteries are intermittent. AI data centers require 24/7 dispatchable power — which solar and batteries alone cannot provide. The result: aging coal plants being retained, electricity prices rising, and the grid increasingly stressed.

Electricity prices have risen more over the last 4 years than the prior 14. A systemic underinvestment in dispatchable baseload (nuclear, gas, hydro) is the root cause.

Comparative context:

China invested $849 billion in clean tech versus America's $278 billion, adding 315 GW of solar versus America's 43.4 GW in 2025. The US is deploying renewables at record pace by domestic historical standards — but not by global competitive standards, and not at the pace the demand growth requires.

Investment implication:

The structural electricity gap strengthens the thesis for nuclear baseload (CEG, CCJ) and grid-scale enablers. A data center operator cannot run on intermittent renewables alone; the premium for dispatchable 24/7 baseload widens as demand growth outpaces solar/battery deployment. PJM capacity prices rise precisely because this gap is visible to the market.