vault concepts
Concepts
The recurring ideas, theses, and patterns the vault organizes around, sorted by how many pages build on them. Filter by context, then open one to read it and see what references it.
Nuclear as the only viable AI data center baseload
stock-market·70 refs·2026-07-21
HBM supply bottleneck
stock-market·69 refs·2026-07-22
US fab capacity bottleneck → Intel as the alternative foundry
stock-market·58 refs·2026-07-17
Why the 2026 energy shock is different from 2022
stock-market·55 refs·2026-07-17
US critical mineral independence
stock-market·47 refs·2026-07-22
Open-source share shift is bullish, not bearish, for compute
stock-market·45 refs·2026-07-27
Picks-and-shovels: leading-edge fab buildout
stock-market·45 refs·2026-07-17
CoWoS packaging capacity crunch
stock-market·44 refs·2026-07-17
TSMC capacity shortfall and 4-year pricing power
stock-market·43 refs·2026-07-17
CUDA moat erosion at inference
stock-market·37 refs·2026-07-27
Seat-based SaaS disruption by agentic AI ("SaaSpocalypse")
stock-market·34 refs·2026-07-14
Copper supercycle: AI data centers and energy buildout
stock-market·33 refs·2026-07-17
Supply-shock inflation persistence: why central banks stay tighter than demand suggests
stock-market·28 refs·2026-06-16
AI Coding Tool Landscape (2026)
artificial-intelligence·26 refs·2026-04-21
Helium supply crisis: differentiated fab exposure and LIN/APD pricing power
stock-market·26 refs·2026-07-17
AI ROI reckoning: token-cost blowup vs. flat realized productivity
stock-market·25 refs·2026-07-28
LLMs are a commodity; the moat is proprietary data + workflow integration
artificial-intelligence·24 refs·2026-06-06
Open vs closed source model economics
artificial-intelligence·22 refs·2026-07-09
AI Coding Productivity Paradox
artificial-intelligence·21 refs·2026-05-16
Cattle-cycle beef supply squeeze
stock-market·21 refs·2026-07-10
Passive-flows structural bid: defined-benefit to defined-contribution shift
stock-market·21 refs·2026-05-30
Chinese open-weight models approach frontier parity
artificial-intelligence·20 refs·2026-07-20
El Niño 2026: commodity / agriculture / energy impact
stock-market·20 refs·2026-05-21
IPO comeback → value capture shifts back to public markets
stock-market·20 refs·2026-06-29
Mega equity-issuance supply wave as an absorption-capacity test
stock-market·20 refs·2026-06-08
Electricity-price driver decomposition — load growth is not the national driver
stock-market·19 refs·2026-07-14
Compute utilization overhang as latent supply
stock-market·18 refs·2026-07-09
Inference speed as a pricing premium
stock-market·18 refs·2026-07-13
Phantom data-center load — interconnection-queue demand is heavily inflated
stock-market·17 refs·2026-07-20
Spread on other people's cash — the higher-for-longer float-NII beneficiary basket
stock-market·17 refs·2026-07-20
Technology Adoption S-Curve
technology-adoption-s-curves·17 refs·2026-06-16
AI Assistants for Older Adults
patia·16 refs·2026-04-21
Citizen Journalism vs Mainstream Coverage of State-Program Fraud
politics·16 refs·2026-05-13
Defense industrial-base rearmament: magazine depth + neo-primes
stock-market·16 refs·2026-07-17
S-Curve Evaluation Lens
stock-market·16 refs·2026-07-09
Steroid-era earnings inflation
stock-market·16 refs·2026-07-17
The AI Vampire Pattern
career·16 refs·2026-05-12
Token-price inflation favors asset-heavy compute owners
stock-market·16 refs·2026-07-09
State-Administered Federal Program Fraud Vulnerability
politics·15 refs·2026-05-13
The AI FINRA / self-regulatory-organization (SRO) proposal
artificial-intelligence·15 refs·2026-07-20
The secondary device market is supply-constrained, so trade-in *acquisition* is the scarce asset
stock-market·15 refs·2026-07-17
AI coding agents are asymmetrically weak on code that has never been written before
artificial-intelligence·14 refs·2026-05-15
AI Macro Signals 2026: All-In and Moonshots
career·14 refs·2026-05-16
AI safety as a vector for regulatory capture / centralization
artificial-intelligence·14 refs·2026-07-20
Black Holes
science·14 refs·2026-05-30
Contract structure, not time, is the seam in the memory market
stock-market·14 refs·2026-07-17
Trump 2026 Childcare-Funding Freeze
politics·14 refs·2026-05-13
US biotech strategic technology offshoring: genetic engineering is the next programmable substrate
stock-market·14 refs·2026-07-20
Creators → adopters: the handoff that decides whether capex normalization is a bear market
stock-market·13 refs·2026-07-17
Enterprise token budgeting
stock-market·13 refs·2026-07-17
Forecastability of Technological Progress
technology-adoption-s-curves·13 refs·2026-06-16
Grid-enhancing technologies — ~260 GW of latent capacity in the existing grid
stock-market·13 refs·2026-07-14
Iran War (2025–2026)
politics·13 refs·2026-05-30
Minnesota State-Program Fraud, 2024–2026
politics·13 refs·2026-05-13
PBM profit already left the spread — pass-through promises are cheap
stock-market·13 refs·2026-07-17
Wright's Law (Experience / Learning Curve)
technology-adoption-s-curves·13 refs·2026-06-16
Coder → Builder: Role Consolidation in AI-Native Companies
career·12 refs·2026-05-12
Compute as a financialized commodity
stock-market·12 refs·2026-07-09
Dealer balance sheet as a market-fragility constraint
stock-market·12 refs·2026-06-02
Florida Adoption Costs
florida-adoption·12 refs·2026-06-03
Florida Adoption: Attorney vs. Agency
florida-adoption·12 refs·2026-06-03
Pose-driven vs audio-driven avatars
ai-video-generation·12 refs·2026-05-07
Quantum Entanglement
science·12 refs·2026-05-30
Shame as a UX Blocker
patia·12 refs·2026-04-21
Transformation versus collapse (the late-antique historiography debate)
history·12 refs·2026-05-13
US-Canada Trade War (2025-2026)
politics·12 refs·2026-05-14
Vibe Coding / Greenfield App Builders
artificial-intelligence·12 refs·2026-04-21
AGI definitions disagree — and the benchmarks are saturating
artificial-intelligence·11 refs·2026-06-06
AutoResearch and the recursive-self-improvement loop
artificial-intelligence·11 refs·2026-05-23
California Hospice Fraud, 2024–2026
politics·11 refs·2026-05-13
Externalize and resurface
adhd·11 refs·2026-06-07
Florida Private Adoption Process
florida-adoption·11 refs·2026-04-20
Frontier-class intelligence is escaping the datacenter to the edge
artificial-intelligence·11 refs·2026-07-20
Hidden leverage beyond margin debt
stock-market·11 refs·2026-07-14
IPO as comparable-valuation anchor
stock-market·11 refs·2026-06-02
Low-orbit self-cleaning matches GPU depreciation
stock-market·11 refs·2026-07-13
Senior Mobile UX Principles
patia·11 refs·2026-04-21
Senior Tech Competitive Landscape
patia·11 refs·2026-04-17
Senior Technology Adoption Factors
patia·11 refs·2026-04-21
ACA subsidy cliff: enhanced-premium-credit expiration as a coverage-and-demand forcing function
stock-market·10 refs·2026-07-20
Curve Steepness and Adoption Velocity
technology-adoption-s-curves·10 refs·2026-06-16
FDA rare-disease regulatory "right-shift"
stock-market·10 refs·2026-07-15
Idea volatility in ADHD
adhd·10 refs·2026-06-07
Operating profit per gigawatt
stock-market·10 refs·2026-07-09
US recession-resistance regime (and the Fed-rate-shock kill-switch)
stock-market·10 refs·2026-07-15
Florida Adoption: Vetting Agencies & Avoiding Scams
florida-adoption·9 refs·2026-06-03
Florida Birth Mother Expense Rules
florida-adoption·9 refs·2026-06-03
Florida Private Adoption Types
florida-adoption·9 refs·2026-04-20
Gravitational Time Dilation
science·9 refs·2026-05-30
Journalism Practitioner Codes — Canonical Tenets
journalism·9 refs·2026-05-13
Legislative divergence base rate: ~11% of laws land far from their forecast
stock-market·9 refs·2026-07-17
MCTS vs LLM RL — why the credit-assignment problem makes LLM RL inefficient
artificial-intelligence·9 refs·2026-05-21
Parallel Claude workflow
artificial-intelligence·9 refs·2026-04-21
The three camps of AI: superintelligence-quest / sober-researchers / value-capture
artificial-intelligence·9 refs·2026-05-16
What AI research LLMs can and can't automate (the capability boundary)
artificial-intelligence·9 refs·2026-05-21
Agent output verification
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-04-21
AI Coding Benchmarks
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-04-21
AI Coding Tool Stacking
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-04-21
Bass Diffusion Model
technology-adoption-s-curves·8 refs·2026-06-16
Canada vs US Economic Divergence (2026)
politics·8 refs·2026-04-21
ChatGPT super-assistant vision: chat → actions + proactivity
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-05-16
Concurrency per megawatt
stock-market·8 refs·2026-07-13
Expanding Universe
science·8 refs·2026-05-30
Florida Open Adoption Agreements (PACAs)
florida-adoption·8 refs·2026-04-20
Florida Private Adoption Agencies — Comparison
florida-adoption·8 refs·2026-06-03
Frontier intelligence is a perishable asset
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-07-20
Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA)
history·8 refs·2026-05-13
Late Bronze Age Collapse
history·8 refs·2026-05-13
Limits of Science
science·8 refs·2026-05-30
No-Communication Theorem (why entanglement can't signal)
science·8 refs·2026-05-30
Plan-then-execute coding
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-04-21
RL is more information-inefficient than you think (bits-per-flop)
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-05-21
State NADAC-plus-dispensing-fee floors are the binding-now PBM forcing function
stock-market·8 refs·2026-07-17
Technology Convergence
technology-adoption-s-curves·8 refs·2026-06-16
The "No Surprises Rule" — Right of Reply in Journalism
journalism·8 refs·2026-05-13
The AI job-displacement debate (and the "AI-washing" narrative flip)
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-06-06
The SaaSpocalypse thesis: is AI eating SaaS?
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-05-15
Vision-Only vs Sensor Fusion
autonomous-driving·8 refs·2026-04-20
War-risk insurance is the chokepoint transmission mechanism, not military force
stock-market·8 refs·2026-07-17
AI Implementer Opportunity
career·7 refs·2026-05-16
Antonine Plague
history·7 refs·2026-05-13
Canadian Anti-Trump Sentiment (2025-2026)
politics·7 refs·2026-04-22
Canadian Decline Indicators (Brunet compilation)
politics·7 refs·2026-04-22
CLAUDE.md as team knowledge base
artificial-intelligence·7 refs·2026-04-21
Cosmic Microwave Background
science·7 refs·2026-05-30
Demo-to-product gap: the "march of nines"
autonomous-driving·7 refs·2026-05-15
Diffusion of Innovations (Rogers)
technology-adoption-s-curves·7 refs·2026-06-16
Distillation and iterated amplification (ITAD)
artificial-intelligence·7 refs·2026-07-09
Frontend Role Compression
career·7 refs·2026-04-17
Identity preservation in video diffusion
ai-video-generation·7 refs·2026-05-07
Low-friction capture
adhd·7 refs·2026-06-07
Neutron Stars
science·7 refs·2026-05-30
Oral PCSK9 class disruption: pill economics attack the injectable-antibody cholesterol franchise
stock-market·7 refs·2026-07-20
Post-transformer architectures (and why the transformer keeps winning anyway)
artificial-intelligence·7 refs·2026-07-20
Quantum Internet / Quantum Networks
science·7 refs·2026-05-30
Semicap tool-price inflation: capex dollars ≠ capacity
stock-market·7 refs·2026-07-17
Spectroscopy
science·7 refs·2026-05-30
The Disney IP flywheel
history·7 refs·2026-07-09
The Disney Vault and generational re-release
history·7 refs·2026-07-09
UNet-to-DiT shift in avatar video diffusion
ai-video-generation·7 refs·2026-05-07
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations (2025–2026)
politics·7 refs·2026-04-21
Vibe Coding Security
artificial-intelligence·7 refs·2026-04-21
West–East divergence by geography
history·7 refs·2026-05-13
AB 2624 — "Stop Nick Shirley Act"
politics·6 refs·2026-05-13
AI value accrual and the "universal basics" question (UBI / UBS / UBC / UBE)
artificial-intelligence·6 refs·2026-06-06
AI-native operators rolling up stale first-gen digital businesses
stock-market·6 refs·2026-07-20
Bell's Theorem and the Death of Local Realism
science·6 refs·2026-05-30
Canadian Provincial Divergence (2026)
politics·6 refs·2026-04-21
Editorial Register Classes
triangulate·6 refs·2026-05-13
Exoplanet Detection and Atmospheres
science·6 refs·2026-05-30
Florida Birth Parent Consent Rules
florida-adoption·6 refs·2026-04-20
FSD Safety Data Validity
autonomous-driving·6 refs·2026-04-20
MN Fraud Crackdown Over-Correction Tension
politics·6 refs·2026-05-13
Niche Vertical AI SaaS Playbook
career·6 refs·2026-04-20
Proprietary coding data as a frontier moat
artificial-intelligence·6 refs·2026-07-09
Sea Peoples
history·6 refs·2026-05-13
Technology Anxiety in Older Adults
patia·6 refs·2026-04-21
The Vault Has Two Separable Functions: Substrate and Methodology
triangulate·6 refs·2026-05-13
Transferable F3 Misinterpretation Patterns
triangulate·6 refs·2026-05-13
Trump-Xi Summit (May 2026): trade reset, Taiwan warning, midterm framing
politics·6 refs·2026-05-15
Agentic AI → CPU resurgence → incremental silicon demand
stock-market·5 refs·2026-07-17
AI Job Application Arms Race
career·5 refs·2026-04-20
Canada-China Trade Deal (January 2026)
politics·5 refs·2026-04-21
Cognitive offloading
adhd·5 refs·2026-06-07
Device-Independent Quantum Key Distribution (DI-QKD)
science·5 refs·2026-05-30
Disruptive Innovation (Christensen)
technology-adoption-s-curves·5 refs·2026-06-16
Florida Adoptive Parent Eligibility
florida-adoption·5 refs·2026-04-20
Investment mistake taxonomy across four levels
psychology·5 refs·2026-05-23
LLM Wiki Pattern
career·5 refs·2026-04-20
Mature-node shortage is confined to AI-adjacent segments (PMIC + sensors)
stock-market·5 refs·2026-07-17
NAV-premium flywheel (and its reversal)
stock-market·5 refs·2026-07-13
Operation Epic Fury (February 2026)
politics·5 refs·2026-04-21
Senior Fraud Susceptibility
patia·5 refs·2026-04-17
Senior Technology Adoption Rates
patia·5 refs·2026-04-17
Spontaneous Parametric Down-Conversion (SPDC)
science·5 refs·2026-05-30
SPR releases are loans, not sales — so the refill is not the bullish catalyst the bulls expect
stock-market·5 refs·2026-07-17
Training and Co-design as UX Levers for Older Adults
patia·5 refs·2026-04-21
Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)
politics·5 refs·2026-04-22
ADHD hyperfocus
adhd·4 refs·2026-06-07
Approach-avoidance framing replaces risk-vs-attraction in investment decisions
psychology·4 refs·2026-05-23
Divergent thinking in ADHD
adhd·4 refs·2026-06-07
Quantum Teleportation
science·4 refs·2026-05-30
The AI robotics / embodiment wave (and the US-vs-China robotics-stack race)
artificial-intelligence·4 refs·2026-06-06
ADHD focus and task initiation
adhd·3 refs·2026-06-07
AI's real-world-data gap — "LLMs are blind"; grounding via Earth-observation and robots
artificial-intelligence·3 refs·2026-06-06
Continual learning as the next breakthrough
artificial-intelligence·3 refs·2026-07-09
Hutchins Commission and Social Responsibility Theory
journalism·3 refs·2026-05-13
Journalism Error Typology
journalism·3 refs·2026-05-13
Multi-Agent Code Review
artificial-intelligence·3 refs·2026-04-22
The "AI cake": five layers, decreasing capital intensity, and the value at the top
stock-market·3 refs·2026-07-17
Video Catalog Schema
patia·2 refs·2026-04-17