open questions
Questions
Open hypotheses and research gaps — the things the vault is still trying to resolve. Filter by context, then open one to see its status and evidence.
Is the $830B CSP CapEx cycle a one-year spike or a sustained multi-year structural level?open
stock-market·24 refs·2026-05-30
Hypothesis: China rare earth control reinstatement in November 2026 → MP Materialshypothesis
stock-market·18 refs·2026-05-28
SpaceX IPO: does the 5/10/15-day index inclusion cadence create a measurable passive-buying tailwind?open
stock-market·15 refs·2026-05-30
Does Samsung have a credible leading-edge foundry comeback that would weaken the Intel-as-alternative thesis?open
stock-market·14 refs·2026-05-27
Solo-Human Company Thesisopen
career·14 refs·2026-05-12
AI-Native Multi-Agent Workflowopen
career·13 refs·2026-05-12
Has Intel 18A reached yield parity with TSMC, or are partnerships outpacing the technical reality?open
stock-market·13 refs·2026-05-27
Hypothesis: Section 232 Phase 2 tariffs → US chip fab structural premium pricinghypothesis
stock-market·13 refs·2026-05-29
What Makes a Compelling Frontend Portfolio in the AI Era?open
career·13 refs·2026-05-12
Future of Frontend Engineeringopen
career·12 refs·2026-05-12
How Competitive Is the Senior Frontend Job Market in 2026?open
career·11 refs·2026-05-12
Senior-led vs family-led signup — which segment is bigger, and what does each want?open
patia·10 refs·2026-04-17
What is time / what are we measuring?open
science·10 refs·2026-05-30
What preceded the Big Bang / what state was the universe in?open
science·10 refs·2026-05-30
Will the Apple-Intel deal convert to actual orders, on which products, on what timeline?open
stock-market·10 refs·2026-05-27
AI Macro Trajectory and Adaptationopen
career·9 refs·2026-05-12
Are there independent benchmarks for avatar generation models, or only vendor-/author-reported numbers?open
ai-video-generation·9 refs·2026-05-07
What AI-First Businesses Should I Pursue?open
career·9 refs·2026-04-20
Are MN and CA state-program-fraud rates actually outliers among states?open
politics·8 refs·2026-05-13
Can LLMs choose the right research question to investigate (not just run the experiment)?open
artificial-intelligence·8 refs·2026-05-21
Hypothesis: Samsung/SK Hynix face disproportionate Section 232 Phase 2 tariff risk; Micron + Intel are structural beneficiarieshypothesis
stock-market·8 refs·2026-05-29
Was the Western Roman fall structurally inevitable or genuinely contingent?open
history·8 refs·2026-05-13
Which Side Business Models Suit a Solo Developer?open
career·8 refs·2026-04-20
How should the wiki enforce its journalism-standards checklist?open
journalism·7 refs·2026-05-13
Hypothesis: Silicon Photonics → AI Cluster Backend Networking as Undercovered Picks-and-Shovels Categoryhypothesis
stock-market·7 refs·2026-05-22
Hypothesis: SpaceX (SPCX) post-listing price trajectory — pop-and-drop, or supported?hypothesis
stock-market·7 refs·2026-05-30
Does screen-aware AI help technology-challenged seniors more than conversational-only AI?open
patia·6 refs·2026-04-17
How much of MN's $9 billion in alleged Medicaid fraud is substantiated?open
politics·6 refs·2026-05-13
Hypothesis: China June 15 2026 mining production controls → production-level REE lever on top of export licensingopen
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-27
Hypothesis: Corning (GLW) as AI optical connectivity picks-and-shovelshypothesis
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-28
Hypothesis: IREN as Nvidia's Preferred DSX AI Factory Operator → Public Equity Beneficiaryopen
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-27
Hypothesis: NextEra/Dominion merger → dominant AI DC power infrastructure playhypothesis
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-30
Hypothesis: TSMC CoWoS overflow → Amkor Technology as uncaptured OSAT beneficiaryopen
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-27
Is ServiceNow (NOW) a buy for a 6–24 month hold — does the consumption-pricing pivot outrun seat erosion fast enough to re-rate?open
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-29
Is the China-via-Malaysia Blackwell compute routing loophole durable, and does it structurally expand Nvidia's TAM?open
stock-market·6 refs·2026-05-22
Was the Antonine Plague a structural shock to the Roman Empire?open
history·6 refs·2026-05-13
Does remote-supervised robotaxi qualify as driverless?open
autonomous-driving·5 refs·2026-04-20
How do current avatar models compare on hand fidelity?open
ai-video-generation·5 refs·2026-05-07
How Much Does ICPC Add to a Florida Private Adoption Timeline?open
florida-adoption·5 refs·2026-04-20
Hypothesis: Lattice FPGA + AMI → AI Cluster Management Layer as Standalone Categoryhypothesis
stock-market·5 refs·2026-05-22
Were the Late Bronze Age destructions synchronous or sequential?open
history·5 refs·2026-05-13
Will NHTSA EA26002 trigger an FSD recall?open
autonomous-driving·5 refs·2026-04-20
Hypothesis: Big Tech direct financing of SK Hynix expansion → new structural supply-demand mechanic in HBMhypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-21
Hypothesis: CHIPS Act quantum computing grants → IBM Anderon / GFS spinoff as first-mover commercialization playshypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-25
Hypothesis: MP Materials Mountain Pass HREE commissioning Q2 2026 → first domestic Tb/Dy production, structural defense supply chain de-riskhypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-21
Hypothesis: Pentagon DoD contract pipeline → USAR/CRML revenue visibility catalyst as China export controls tightenhypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-30
Hypothesis: SK Hynix helium cliff + Section 232 Korean targeting → Micron HBM pricing window in Q3 2026hypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-30
Hypothesis: SoftBank Roze + ABB Robotics → Robotics as Data Center Construction Playhypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-22
Hypothesis: TSMC Kumamoto → Emerging Physical AI Hub for Automotive/Roboticshypothesis
stock-market·4 refs·2026-05-22
Is real-time / interactive avatar puppeting feasible on consumer hardware in 2026?open
ai-video-generation·4 refs·2026-05-07
Is vision-only perception sufficient for L4 autonomy?open
autonomous-driving·4 refs·2026-04-20
What Are the Practical Mechanics of Florida's Adoption Advertising Requirement?open
florida-adoption·4 refs·2026-04-20
Does AB 2624 chill citizen journalism in practice, even with intent thresholds?open
politics·3 refs·2026-05-13
How High Is Match Disruption Risk in Florida Independent (Attorney-Only) Adoption?open
florida-adoption·3 refs·2026-04-20
Hypothesis: AI power delivery ICs — M&A consolidation premium in MPWR/VICR/TXNhypothesis
stock-market·3 refs·2026-05-27
Hypothesis: Iran/Hormuz LNG Disruption → Cheniere as Primary US LNG Exporter Beneficiaryhypothesis
stock-market·3 refs·2026-05-28
Hypothesis: Meta cloud compute business → fourth hyperscaler disrupts AWS/Azure/GCP oligopoly pricinghypothesis
stock-market·3 refs·2026-05-29
What is DreamActor-M1 and how does it compare to Act-Two and Wan-Animate?open
ai-video-generation·3 refs·2026-05-07
Hypothesis: CHIPS Act 48D December 31, 2026 construction deadline → H2 2026 fab groundbreaking rush → PWR/FIX near-term revenue accelerationhypothesis
stock-market·2 refs·2026-05-30
Hypothesis: NEE/Dominion merger Virginia SCC block risk → NEE priced above standalone clean-energy valuehypothesis
stock-market·2 refs·2026-05-30
Is YouTube a viable pool of senior tech help content for patia to surface?open
patia·2 refs·2026-04-17
Hypothesis: Big Beautiful Bill IRA Changes → First Solar as Domestic Solar Winnerhypothesis
stock-market·1 refs·2026-05-28
Is skeuomorphic design better for seniors?open
patia·1 refs·2026-04-17