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Autoresearch: CEG Constellation Energy FERC large-load tariff ruling nuclear AI datacenters June 2026

FERC CIR waiver restores CEG Crane/TMI 2027 restart; RM26-4-000 final ruling still pending end-June; Calpine secondary offering absorbs 11M shares at $281; 25M shares remain in June 30 lock-up window.

Source

Autoresearch: CEG Constellation Energy FERC large-load tariff ruling nuclear AI datacenters June 2026

Generated by /autoresearch on 2026-06-04. Synthesized across 3 rounds from 12 web pages, anchored by Grokipedia entry for Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. See Provenance. Treat as raw material — review before promoting into a project or thread. Context: vault/projects/stock-market

Summary

Three developments materially update the nuclear-baseload-for-ai-data-centers thesis in June 2026. First, FERC approved a critical CIR (Capacity Interconnection Rights) waiver on June 1, 2026 allowing Constellation Energy to transfer 760 MW of rights from its Eddystone plant to the Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1), keeping the 2027 restart target intact — though full 835 MW deliverability requires transmission upgrades not completing until December 2030. Second, the broader FERC RM26-4-000 large-load interconnection rulemaking (commission-wide, invoked under DOE Section 403) is still pending, with the final order expected by end of June 2026; prior building-block orders (December 2025 PJM co-location order, January 2026 SPP HILL order) are already in effect. Third, Calpine shareholders sold 11 million CEG shares at $281/share on June 2, 2026, with CEG buying back 2 million; 25 million more shares remain subject to lock-up expiring June 30, 2026 — the near-term technical overhang is partially absorbed but not cleared.

Findings

FERC CIR Waiver — Crane/TMI 2027 Restart Now Back on Track (June 1, 2026)

FERC approved a critical waiver for Constellation Energy on June 1, 2026, allowing the transfer of 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights (CIRs) from its Eddystone natural gas-fired generating station near Philadelphia to the Crane Clean Energy Center (the 835 MW Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart) (Utility Dive). The waiver was approved over the objections of PJM's independent market monitor.

Why this matters for the wiki: The prior wiki entry under nuclear-baseload-for-ai-data-centers flagged a CONTRADICTION: PJM had identified that transmission upgrades (765-kV and 500-kV projects) wouldn't complete until December 2030, potentially delaying full interconnection until 2031. The FERC CIR waiver resolves this on an interim basis:

  • 2027 restart preserved: Crane can restart as planned in H2 2027 using the transferred 760 MW of CIRs from Eddystone (Energy Central). The Microsoft 20-year PPA can begin receiving power delivery from 2027.
  • Partial gap remains: The 760 MW transfer does NOT fully resolve the deliverability issue. Full 835 MW deliverability requires the 765-kV/500-kV transmission upgrades, which complete December 2030. Between 2027 and 2030, Crane will operate at approximately 760 MW deliverable capacity rather than the full 835 MW nameplate (Utility Dive).
  • PJM market monitor opposed: Monitoring Analytics argued that the waiver fails four criteria (good-faith error, limited scope, concrete problem, no undesirable consequences) and that "a waiver is not justified where a party merely seeks relief from the consequences of its own business decisions." The monitor also warned of cost-shifting to other interconnection customers (Utility Dive market monitor piece).

Wiki update implication: The "2031 delay" CONTRADICTION in the nuclear-baseload wiki page should be updated: the 2027 restart is now preserved at ~760 MW interim capacity; the "full 835 MW by 2031" language is more accurate than "blocked until 2031."

CEG had submitted the waiver request in April 2026 and flagged at the Q1 2026 earnings call (May 11) that a "FERC decision on the Crane restart is coming in June or July" (ANS Nuclear Newswire). The approval on June 1 came at the earlier end of the expected window.

FERC RM26-4-000 — Commission-Wide Large-Load Ruling Still Pending (Expected End-June 2026)

The broader FERC RM26-4-000 rulemaking — the commission-wide standardization of large-load (>20 MW) interconnection procedures across all RTO/ISOs — has NOT yet been issued as of June 4, 2026, but is expected by end of June per FERC Chair Swett's April 16, 2026 commitment (Holland & Knight, Troutman Energy Report).

Background and current status:

  • DOE Secretary invoked Section 403 of the Federal Power Act on October 23, 2025, directing FERC to consider large-load interconnection reforms. FERC opened Docket RM26-4-000 and issued an ANOPR seeking comment.
  • Prior building-block orders already in effect:
    • December 18, 2025 — PJM co-location order: FERC ordered PJM to create three new transmission services for co-located loads: (1) Interim Non-Firm Transmission Service (bridge service during network upgrade periods), (2) Firm Contract Demand Transmission Service (permanent firm service up to specified MW), and (3) Non-Firm Contract Demand Transmission Service (interruptible). PJM was required to file tariff revisions by February 16, 2026 (Gibson Dunn, K&L Gates).
    • January 2026 — SPP HILL order: FERC approved SPP's High Impact Large Load proposal establishing a new study process for large loads.

What the end-of-June RM26-4 ruling is expected to do: The commission-wide order will "translate the issues identified in the ANOPR and the record into standards for processing large-load interconnection requests" applicable to all RTO/ISOs, not just PJM and SPP. FERC stated the action will address "reliability, cost allocation and timing challenges" and "affect jurisdictional authority, interconnection processes, treatment of co-located load and generation, and cost allocation principles" (Troutman Energy Report).

NARUC challenge still the key bear risk: The wiki's FERC mechanism page correctly identifies that NARUC (state utility regulators) is mounting a jurisdictional challenge to the Section 403 authority. FERC pre-empted this in the December 2025 PJM order by asserting exclusive authority over generator interconnection and wholesale transmission service while explicitly preserving state jurisdiction over "retail sales" and "distribution in intrastate commerce." However, this jurisdictional demarcation is untested in courts and a NARUC appeal could stay the rule.

NERC filed its Accelerated Large-Load Action Plan in RM26-4 docket per FERC direction, demonstrating regulatory coordination that makes the June ruling more likely to be "legally durable" as FERC has stated it intends.

CEG-Calpine Lock-Up Expiry — Partially Absorbed, Overhang Remains

June 2, 2026 secondary offering (now completed):

  • Calpine shareholders sold 11,000,000 CEG shares at $281.00 per share in an underwritten public offering via Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan (Constellation press release, TipRanks).
  • CEG simultaneously repurchased 2,000,000 of those shares for ~$558 million (~$279/share) from the underwriters, leaving ~$3.5 billion remaining in its buyback authorization (StockTitan 8-K summary).
  • The lock-up was waived for the shares in this offering, meaning these sellers accepted early liquidity at $281.

Remaining overhang:

  • The Calpine acquisition lock-up structure is a two-tranche expiry:
    • June 30, 2026 (first tranche): 50% of Calpine acquisition shares = approximately 25 million shares of potential supply (TIKR CEG Q1 earnings).
    • June 30, 2027 (second tranche): remaining 50%.
  • The June 2 secondary offering consumed 11 million shares from the first-tranche cohort (with a lock-up waiver). Given 25 million total shares in the June 30, 2026 tranche, approximately 14 million shares remain potentially available for sale at the June 30 lock-up expiry (25M total first tranche minus 11M sold in the June 2 offering).
  • CEG management "acknowledged flexibility to absorb potential transactions" but made no commitment on timing or scale.

Thesis relevance: The Calpine lock-up creates a near-term technical overhang, NOT a thesis deterioration. The $281/share offering price is well below the $365 analyst consensus PT, suggesting sellers are taking liquidity at a discount. CEG's buyback of 2M shares demonstrates management's view that the stock is cheap. The 14M remaining first-tranche shares are the key watch item for June 26-30.

December 2025 FERC PJM Co-Location Order — The Tariff Framework CEG Was Waiting For

The December 18, 2025 FERC order to PJM directly enables the new hyperscaler co-location deals that CEG has been pursuing. Key implications for the CEG nuclear-co-location thesis:

  • Behind-the-meter generation (BTMG): The order limits BTMG netting to loads below a new MW threshold (likely below 20 MW). Hyperscaler-scale loads (500 MW–1 GW) cannot use the old BTMG netting rules — they must use the three new transmission services. This standardizes the framework hyperscalers need to sign co-location agreements with certainty.
  • Co-location economics clarified: New interconnection customers bear "full cost of modifications" (100% developer cost responsibility). This is consistent with what CEG and hyperscalers had been negotiating bilaterally — the tariff now makes it a standard RTO procedure.
  • PJM compliance deadline: PJM was required to file tariff revisions by February 16, 2026, establishing "specific terms and conditions" for co-location arrangements. CEG's Q1 earnings commentary that "PJM targeting a framework submission to FERC in June" is the next step — PJM's compliance filing on the details, after which FERC issues its response. This is the final gate before CEG can formally sign new hyperscaler co-location contracts with regulatory certainty.

New Hyperscaler Nuclear Deals (June 2026 Context)

No new CEG-specific hyperscaler co-location announcement was found in June 2026 beyond what was previously known. The broader market context (SMRIntel tracker):

  • 9.8 GW total committed across 13 projects as of May/June 2026.
  • Meta leads: 6.6 GW (TerraPower, Oklo, Vistra, Constellation).
  • CEG's existing committed capacity: 5,650+ MW in long-term clean energy contracts with hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta).
  • Aalo Pod reactor + INL AI data center co-location announced (Idaho National Laboratory campus) — a new SMR-datacenter co-location format targeting July 2026 criticality for experimental Aalo-X reactor (iRecruit Insights).
  • AWS co-location with nuclear plant: A search result flagged AWS is acquiring a hyperscale data center directly connected to a nuclear plant (Microgrid Knowledge) — details on this deal not fully retrieved.
  • CEG management's Q1 commentary: PJM framework clarity expected in June 2026 will unlock new hyperscaler co-location deals for "H2 2026." The CIR waiver and the pending RM26-4 ruling create the regulatory environment for these to close.

Contradictions and open questions

  • Crane partial gap remains: The CIR waiver restores 2027 restart but only at ~760 MW. Full 835 MW requires December 2030 transmission upgrades. The wiki's "CONTRADICTION: 2031 delay" entry should be updated to "PARTIALLY RESOLVED — 2027 restart at 760 MW preserved; full 835 MW by 2030." This is thesis-positive vs. prior framing but not a full all-clear.
  • FERC RM26-4-000 not yet issued: The binary catalyst (end-of-June 2026 FERC ruling) is still pending as of June 4. The ruling could be narrower than expected (a NOPR instead of a final rule, or fewer RTOs in scope), reducing the immediate unlock.
  • NARUC challenge unresolved: FERC pre-empted with jurisdictional language in the December 2025 order, but a court challenge remains possible if the commission-wide RM26-4 order is issued. This is the key bear risk on the FERC mechanism chain.
  • CEG lock-up overhang ~14M shares, June 30: The first tranche of the Calpine lock-up has been partially absorbed (11M sold at $281). The remaining ~14M shares are an overhang until June 30. If sellers dump at the open of the lock-up window, CEG stock could dip below $270 temporarily, which the wiki thesis frames as an entry window.
  • AWS nuclear direct-connection deal: Search results suggest AWS is acquiring a hyperscale data center directly connected to a nuclear plant. If this is a new CEG-connected deal (vs. the existing Talen/Susquehanna arrangement), it would be thesis-confirmatory. Not confirmed from sources retrieved.
  • No new CEG-specific hyperscaler announcement in June 2026: Management guided H2 2026 for new deals; the FERC PJM framework and CIR waiver are the enabling conditions. Watch for announcements July–September 2026.

Provenance

Rounds run: 3 of 3

Sub-questions by round:

Round 1 (broad survey):

  1. Has FERC issued its RM26-4-000 large-load tariff ruling in June 2026? What are the key terms?
  2. What is the status of the CEG-Calpine acquisition and the lock-up expiry around June 30, 2026?
  3. What new hyperscaler nuclear co-location agreements or announcements has Constellation Energy made in June 2026?
  4. What is the current regulatory status of nuclear co-location tariffs at FERC (Order 2023 co-location proceeding)?

Round 2 (drill-down):

  1. FERC RM26-4-000 actual June 2026 ruling — has it been issued, what are the specific terms? — targeted FERC binary catalyst status
  2. CEG secondary offering June 2026 + remaining lock-up overhang details — targeted entry window thesis
  3. FERC CIR ruling for CEG TMI/Crane — June/July expected gate — targeted PJM interconnection risk
  4. New hyperscaler nuclear deals June 2026 beyond CEG — targeted thesis breadth

Round 3 (resolve remaining uncertainty):

  1. Crane CIR waiver — does it fully resolve 2031 delay or partial? — targeted key interconnection risk
  2. X-Energy June 4 8-K content — any CEG-related nuclear-AI announcement? — targeted new announcements (SEC filing returned 403)
  3. FERC RM26-4 NERC action plan content — targeted ruling preview

Anchor source (Grokipedia, fetched before round 1):

  • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission — 8,017 chars extracted — Provided FERC history, Section 403 legal authority background, and context on FERC's co-location regulatory authority; noted "AI-driven data centers co-located with generation" as an emerging challenge FERC is navigating.

X sources: Not used (--include-x not passed).

URLs fetched (12 successful, 5 failed):

Round 1:

Round 2:

Round 3:

Tools used: WebSearch, WebFetch, grokipedia-fetch (skill). Generated: 2026-06-04 10:45 UTC

Referenced by
Concepts
Nuclear as the only viable AI data center baseload
Questions
Hypothesis: CEG Calpine lockup June 30 → forced selling pressure → entry window at lower price