2026 07 14 Earnings JPM Q2 Fy2026

Summary

JPMorgan beat Q2 FY2026 (EPS $7.70 vs $5.55 est on $57.35B revenue; net income $16.9B, ROTCE 23%). The load-bearing causal claims: CFO Barnum raised the full-year NII guide to ~$105.5B total / $96.5B ex-Markets (a dated, quantified catalyst for the rate-regime/NII theses), while warning that this quarter's equities-markets strength "is a little bit hard to imagine being repeated." Dimon called the environment "close to as good as it gets… we just don't know how long it's going to last," and management flagged mild but broad credit deterioration — "weaker covenants, some rollover risk" — plus underwriting discipline on deals they declined. Card NCO guided ~3.2%; expenses raised to $107.5B (partly AI/token spend, "trivial" full-year but accelerating H2).

Transcript

(Speaker-labeled excerpts extracted from the Investing.com full transcript; verbatim quotes preserved. Treat as management's stated mechanism, corroborated like any other source — not oracle.)

Jamie Dimon (Chairman & CEO): "It's getting close to as good as it gets. We just don't know how long it's going to last."

Jamie Dimon: "The notion that somehow you can forever increase your operating leverage is a crazy notion."

Jamie Dimon (on AI): "The ultimate beneficiary of AI will be our customers… we can't just say it's going to increase our margins."

Jamie Dimon (on regulatory capital): "Do the numbers the right way. If they think they want to be more conservative, they should add conservatism."

Jamie Dimon (on consumer / credit standards): "We talked about it as a very mild [deterioration] but across several spectrum… weaker covenants, some rollover risk."

Jamie Dimon (on organic growth): "We have huge opportunities for organic growth in every single business we're in."

Jeremy Barnum (CFO — NII guidance): "NII ex-Markets to be about $96.5 billion, and total NII approximately $105.5 billion" for full year 2026.

Jeremy Barnum (markets sustainability): "The particular set of things that happened in equities this quarter, it's a little bit hard to imagine being repeated."

Jeremy Barnum (IB pipeline): "The pipeline remains quite robust, and the current activity levels seem to be encouraging more activity."

Jeremy Barnum (deposit convexity risk): "At some point [negative convexity] kicks in… if rates move meaningfully differently, deposit behavior changes."

Jeremy Barnum (credit underwriting): "We saw some deals come through where we were just like, 'Yeah, we're not doing that.' It's normal, competitive."

Jeremy Barnum (AI expense): "Token expense… trivial for first half… forecasting meaningful acceleration in second half… still full year is trivial."

Key figures (management commentary)

• Card net charge-off rate guidance: ~3.2% full year.
• Expenses raised to $107.5B (up $2.5B; $1.5B already booked H1).
• Credit costs Q2: $2.5B ($2.4B charge-offs, $149M reserve build).
• Dividend raised to $1.65/share, effective Q3 2026.