Autoresearch: Shapiro PA EO 2026-05 makes GRID binding; FERC ER26-3380 comments closed, no order

Generated by /autoresearch on 2026-08-24. Step-1 refresh of state-datacenter-siting-moratorium-risk + pjm-capacity-prices-to-nuclear-premium after Friday's 17:00 ET comment deadline. Compact two-theme scan. Priors skipped (headless). Context: vault/projects/stock-market.

Summary

Pennsylvania is the third large-market siting gate, and it sits inside PJM. On 2026-08-18 Governor Josh Shapiro signed Executive Order 2026-05, converting the previously voluntary Governor's Responsible Infrastructure Development (GRID) standards into binding conditions for DEP permitting and the Computer Data Center Equipment sales-and-use tax exemption for projects with peak demand > 25 MW — a lower threshold than New York's 50 MW EO 62. It is not a moratorium: two tracks remain open, but Track 2 (no Consent Order) loses rolling review, Fast Track, PAyback, and Permit Decision Guarantee. Local municipal approval is a prerequisite to DEP issuance ("if the local community doesn't approve, the state won't"). GRID requires developers to bring incremental capacity in the same PJM LDA and pay interconnection/network-upgrade costs; clean-firm share 10% (2027) → 32% (2035). Shapiro also directs his Special Counsel to advocate at the PA PUC that utilities curtail data centers before other customers in IRAS/emergency events unless they brought incremental capacity — the state-side twin of PJM's still-unaccepted IRAS tariff.

FERC ER26-3380-000 comments closed 2026-08-21 17:00 ET. No order, deficiency letter, or comment-period extension has issued. Requested effective date remains 2026-09-29. Auction window 09-30 → 10-21, results by 12-02, cap $555/MW-day, target 6.8 GW. Do not re-rate CEG on the deadline. The EO itself cites the docket and wants RBP costs assigned to data-center customers, not other ratepayers — a state-level cost-allocation fight that only fires if FERC accepts the tariff.

Replication score for state-datacenter-siting-moratorium-risk: NY (EO 62, environmental permit, 50 MW, Jul 14) → TX (Abbott PUCT/ERCOT audit, grid interconnection, Aug 3, already ingested) → PA (GRID-as-permit-condition, 25 MW, Aug 18, PJM). Three instruments, three parties/regions, 35 days. POWER also names Illinois (Pritzker paused Data Center Investment Program Jun 5 / Jul 1) and Florida (SB 484, May, full cost-of-service). PA is the one that lands on CEG's home RTO.

Findings

Theme 1 — Shapiro EO 2026-05 (primary)

From the executed order (pa.gov PDF, dated August 18, 2026):

• DEP received permit applications for 20 proposed facilities; 14 locations hold active Computer Data Center Equipment exemption certificates; "over 100" publicly reported as proposed. Shapiro (signing remarks, via POWER): no AI data center yet operating; only five have the permits they would need to begin.
• PJM 2025 Load Forecast: 74 GW summer-peak growth through 2045, "primarily driven by data center development." Independent Market Monitor: data centers were $29.4B / 46% of the last four BRA capacity charges even with the Shapiro-negotiated collar.
• Threshold: > 25 MW peak. Effective immediately; remains until amended or rescinded.
• Track 1 (GRID Consent Order): rolling DEP review; final permits only after local comprehensive-plan consistency + all municipal subdivision/zoning approvals.
• Track 2 (no COA): DEP does not begin review until local approvals and water-withdrawal/wastewater authorizations; no rolling issuance; excluded from PAyback and Permit Decision Guarantee.
• Fast Track: all data-center projects removed; no longer eligible.
• NDAs by agencies under the Governor's jurisdiction: impermissible.
• Tax exemption (Article XXIX-D): DOR must update guidelines so applications on/after the effective date comply with GRID.
• Special Counsel (Patrick Cicero) shall advocate at the PUC that utilities: (1) curtail data centers prior to any other customer in pre-emergency IRAS or emergency events unless the DC secured incremental capacity for its entire demand; (2) not classify DCs as critical-load exempt; (3) charge appropriate DC customers for PJM reliability backstop auction costs in accordance with FERC ER26-3380-000; (4) prevent shifting those costs to non-DC customers even on DC insolvency; (5) register large loads in PJM's Large Load Registry.

From POWER, 2026-08-20-ish (Sonal Patel): GRID clean-firm phases 10% in 2027 → 32% by 2035; developers "must build, bring online, or buy incremental capacity"; HB 2650 (codify GRID) passed the House Jun 24, stuck in the Republican Senate — Shapiro: "the absence of legislative approval has left me with no other option." PUC Chair Stephen DeFrank endorsed at the signing. POWER's state roundup also names Illinois (Pritzker paused DC Investment Program) and Florida SB 484 (full cost-of-service).

From Greenberg Traurig / National Law Review, 2026-08-20: explicitly not a moratorium and does not restrict location. GRID workforce floor: $250M new investment, 200 prevailing-wage construction jobs, 50 permanent jobs at ≥125% of PA average wage within four years. Incremental generation must be in the same PJM LDA.

Theme 2 — FERC ER26-3380 comments closed, still no order

The 08-19 clipping (2026-08-19-autoresearch-pjm-ferc-er26-3380-comment-deadline-no-new-order) predicted this: a comment close is not a ruling. As of 2026-08-24 (Monday pre-open, ~60 hours after 17:00 ET Friday):

• No FERC order, deficiency letter, or extension turned up.
• lowdown.today still describes the filing as "pending FERC's review of comments submitted through 21 August," requested start 29 September 2026.
• Auction calendar unchanged: Sep 30 – Oct 21, results by Dec 2, cap $555/MW-day, 6.8 GW target.
• Shapiro's EO pre-wires the state cost-allocation and IRAS-curtailment advocacy to whatever FERC ultimately accepts — so a FERC rejection would strand those PUC-advocacy clauses; an acceptance would give PA a ready retail tariff path.

Do not re-rate CEG. The next dated tell is 09-29 requested effective / whether FERC acts before the 09-30 auction window, and whether it requires the 6.8 GW target recalculated (SemiAnalysis 08-16 falsifier).

What this means for existing pages

• state-datacenter-siting-moratorium-risk — PA is the third large-market gate (NY environmental, TX interconnection, PA permit-condition + local veto). Threshold 25 MW is stricter than NY's 50. Not a pause; a process tax that converts speculative pipeline into phantom load (phantom-data-center-load). Conviction already medium-high after Texas; this is corroboration, not a re-rate.
• pjm-capacity-prices-to-nuclear-premium — ambiguous sign (same as EO 62): suppressed new load is bearish capacity prices; BYOC + clean-firm + IRAS-curtailment-first is bullish existing nuclear / co-location (CEG, TLN). FERC still unruled.
• siting-gate-plus-stranded-capacity-to-demand-side-beneficiary-rotation — graduation test: a third state, in the RTO that clears the 10× capacity print, with an explicit bring-your-own-capacity term. Still a hypothesis until a named BTM/EPC beneficiary prints the mix shift.
• Zero net-new ai-infrastructure chain. Attach, don't mint.

Provenance

• PA EO 2026-05 executed PDF — primary, *.gov.
• POWER — Shapiro GRID — trade press.
• NLR / Greenberg Traurig, 2026-08-20 — law-firm analysis (not a moratorium; LDA + job floors).
• lowdown.today IRAS — FERC still pending post-08-21.
• Prior wiki: 2026-08-19-autoresearch-pjm-ferc-er26-3380-comment-deadline-no-new-order, 2026-08-10-autoresearch-datacenter-siting-gate-load-relocation.

Open questions

• Does FERC accept ER26-3380 as filed, require a 6.8 GW recalculation, or slip past 09-29?
• Does PA PUC actually adopt DC-first curtailment, or is Cicero's advocacy a letter?
• Illinois/Florida named by POWER — not fetched this pass; don't mint from a roundup sentence.