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El Niño 2026 NOAA CPC 13 Aug

NOAA CPC 13 August 2026 El Niño Advisory vintage plus WMO ASO, IMD Jun–Aug rainfall, CF/NTR Q2, water-name Q2, and Aug 27 last prices. Facts only.

Source

El Niño 2026 NOAA CPC 13 Aug

Generated by Grok Bot research on 2026-08-28. Parallel-deep-research + native X. Treat as raw material — review before promoting into a project or thread.

Scope: update el-nino-2026-commodity-impact.md vintage to Aug 2026 against NOAA CPC 13 Aug. KEEP-AS-QUESTION for cbam-elnino-nitrogen-price-spike-cf-ntr. KEEP-AS-HYPOTHESIS for el-nino-drought-to-water-infrastructure-capex. File last prices on names you keep. Do not create XYL/AWK/WTS entity pages. Do not flatten All-In / Odd Lots podcast into grain. Do not carry May "super / ≥3°C / 1-in-3" forward as if CPC still publishes it. Encyclopedia is not a source. Do not write encyclopedia HTML. No buy/sell/size. Gage empty. No Gage ranges.

Summary

NOAA CPC dated 13 August 2026 is now on ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory. Fetched CPC wording, not a tightened paraphrase: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. July Niño-3.4 +1.4°C, Niño-3 +1.7°C, Niño-1+2 +2.9°C. OND 2026 carries a 69% chance of a historic event (3-month RONI +2.5°C or more, exceeding post-1950). Impacts are not guaranteed. Next discussion 10 Sep 2026. WMO GSCU ASO 2026 (31 Jul) says strong event, ASO SST ~2.9°C, peak trajectory November, IOD +0.6°C; no "super El Niño" label. IMD rainfall 1 Jun–27 Aug 2026: country 583.2 vs 672.1 mm (−13%) still category Normal; 14 states Deficient. Do not call 2026 a deficient monsoon. CF EX-99.1 (5 Aug) and Nutrien (5 Aug) do not cite a CBAM / El Niño nitrogen collision or a European stock-out. CF last 125.71, NTR 73.06, XYL 112.65, AWK 136.69, WTS 372.37 as of 27 Aug 2026 4:00 PM EDT. Gage empty. No buy/sell/size.

Findings

NOAA CPC 13 August 2026 (grain; fetched wording)

From the NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and the same discussion as PDF, dated 13 August 2026:

  • ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
  • El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
  • July Niño-3.4 +1.4°C, Niño-3 +1.7°C, Niño-1+2 +2.9°C
  • 69% chance of a historic event for OND 2026 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value), exceeding the post-1950 record.
  • Impacts are not guaranteed.
  • Next discussion: 10 Sep 2026.

File that CPC wording on el-nino-2026-commodity-impact.md. Vintage is now Aug 2026. Do not flatten All-In / Odd Lots podcast into this grain. Do not carry May "super / ≥3°C / 1-in-3" forward as if CPC still publishes it.

WMO GSCU ASO 2026 (31 July)

From the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update ASO 2026 and the WMO media note:

  • Strong event.
  • ASO SST ~2.9°C.
  • Peak trajectory November.
  • IOD +0.6°C.
  • No "super El Niño" label.

IMD rainfall 1 June–27 August 2026

From the IMD state rainfall distribution PDF:

  • Country 583.2 vs 672.1 mm (−13%).
  • Still category Normal.
  • 14 states Deficient.
  • IMD country −13% still Normal through 27 Aug; 14 states Deficient.
  • Do not call 2026 a deficient monsoon.

Nitrogen question — KEEP-AS-QUESTION

KEEP-AS-QUESTION for cbam-elnino-nitrogen-price-spike-cf-ntr. Do not graduate. Do not kill.

Q2 evidence from CF Industries Exhibit 99.1, 5 August 2026 and Nutrien second-quarter 2026 results, 5 August 2026:

  • Neither cites CBAM / El Niño nitrogen collision / European stock-out.
  • CF says prices back to pre-conflict by end-Q2.
  • NTR mentions El Niño once as crop-price risk.

€120/t urea stays podcast/wiki prior — Do not promote €120/t urea as grain. The official EC CBAM definitive-regime page confirms the definitive regime from 1 Jan 2026 and that fertilisers are covered. It does not confirm that euro figure. European H2 urea import prices and the EC CBAM certificate-price page were not fetched. CF and NTR remain the closest listed names.

Water question — KEEP-AS-HYPOTHESIS

KEEP-AS-HYPOTHESIS for el-nino-drought-to-water-infrastructure-capex. Do not graduate. Do not kill. Do not create XYL/AWK/WTS entity pages. Last prices for those three may live on the question page only.

  • Xylem Q2 2026: orders $3.1B; CEO names AI infrastructure not drought.
  • American Water Q2 2026: $3.7B capex on track; weather as EPS exclusion.
  • WTS Q2 issuer text was not fetched.

Last prices (27 Aug 2026 4:00 PM EDT)

House rule: each investment/entity page that this clip keeps carries a short Valuation mark. This pass files the 27 Aug 2026 4:00 PM EDT close. Gage empty. No buy/sell/size. No issuer target, downside, or horizon. Stockanalysis consensus targets were not copied.

CF last 125.71, NTR 73.06, XYL 112.65, AWK 136.69, WTS 372.37 as of 27 Aug 2026 4:00 PM EDT.

Update existing cf-industries.md Valuation block only. Do not overwrite the Q2 print already on that page. Create nutrien.md if none exists; file NTR Q2 facts from this clipping (do not invent). Do not invent Howmet / LLY / TMO / WST / STVN / defense pages in this PR. Do not touch driver-supply trucking pages.

What this is not

  • Not a buy/sell/size.
  • Not a Gage 12–24 month range. Gage empty.
  • Do not promote €120/t urea as grain.
  • Do not create XYL/AWK/WTS entity pages.
  • Encyclopedia pages were not used as sources.
  • Do not write encyclopedia HTML.
  • Do not graduate sparks.

Contradictions and open questions

  • May 2026 wiki vintage still carries NOAA 82–96% and a ~1-in-3 "super / ≥3°C" line from the May triangulation source. CPC 13 Aug 2026 does not republish that framing. Do not carry it forward as current CPC grain.
  • All-In (Friedberg) and Odd Lots (Blas / Roche Kelly) remain May podcast sources. Do not flatten them into the Aug 2026 CPC grain.
  • IMD country −13% is still category Normal. Do not call 2026 a deficient monsoon. 14 states are Deficient.
  • CF EX-99.1: prices back to pre-conflict by end-Q2. That sits against the H2 2026 nitrogen-spike clock on the question page. Neither CF nor NTR cites CBAM / El Niño nitrogen collision / European stock-out.
  • €120/t urea is podcast/wiki prior only. Official EC page confirms definitive regime from 1 Jan 2026 and fertilisers covered, not that euro figure.
  • XYL Q2: orders $3.1B; CEO names AI infrastructure not drought. AWK Q2: $3.7B capex on track; weather as EPS exclusion. WTS Q2 issuer text was not fetched. Water-name drought-capex link stays unverified.
  • Provenance misses (do not invent fills): BOM, ECMWF, IRI/CPC strength tables, WMO early-Sep ENSO update, WTS Q2 issuer, European H2 urea import prices, EC CBAM certificate-price page, native X.

Provenance

Method: Grok Bot / parallel-deep-research / native X Generated: 2026-08-28

Web sources:

X sources:

  • none found — native X not used this pass (provenance miss; do not invent fills)

Grokipedia:

  • not used

Provenance misses remaining (do not invent fills): BOM, ECMWF, WMO early-Sep ENSO update, WTS Q2 issuer, European H2 urea import prices, EC CBAM certificate-price page, native X. IRI August Quick Look and CPC official strength / phase-probability tables are in the addenda below.

Addendum — CPC official strength + phase tables; IRI August 2026 Quick Look

Alfred-fetched extras folded into this same source. Do not invent. Do not open a second El Niño product. Do not graduate either question-page.

CPC official strength table (issued August 2026, verified on RONI)

From CPC RONI strengths — Index ≥ +2.0°C (very strong bin):

  • JAS 20%, ASO 75%, SON 93%, OND 95%, NDJ 90%, DJF 70%, JFM 35%, FMA 6%, MAM 0%.

This is the official strength table the first clip listed as a provenance miss. File it. Do not collapse ≥+2.0°C with the diagnostic’s historic RONI ≥ +2.5°C OND 69% clause — different thresholds.

CPC official phase probabilities (issued August 2026)

From CPC RONI probabilities:

  • El Niño: 100% JAS through JFM, 97% FMA, 82% MAM.

IRI August 2026 Quick Look (published 19 Aug)

From IRI ENSO current:

  • Traditional Niño-3.4 / TONI (OISSTv2, 1991–2020): July monthly +2.03°C; week centered 12 Aug +2.7°C; MJJ seasonal +1.51°C.
  • Mid-Aug plume: 25 of 26 models put OND in very-strong (≥ +2.0°C); 15 models ≥ +3.0°C.
  • IRI El Niño probability 100% ASO through FMA 2027, then 97% MAM, 78% AMJ.
  • July DMI +0.11°C (neutral IOD); models forecast positive IOD Aug–Dec 2026.

INDEX DISAGREEMENT (keep split): CPC diagnostic July Niño-3.4 is +1.4°C; IRI July TONI is +2.03°C. Official CPC probabilities verify on RONI. Do not merge the series.

Do not file Reuters/WHBL unofficial IMD “weakest since 2009 / ~15%” as grain. If mentioned, label unofficial and contested. Official IMD through 27 Aug remains country −13% / category Normal.

Addendum — IMD PDF confirmed extras; GEOGLAM June special report (stale)

Scout part 1 extras. Fold into the same source. Do not graduate. Do not invent.

IMD PDF (Alfred curl)

From IMD state rainfall distribution:

  • South Peninsula cumulative −22% category D (415.5 vs 535.2 mm).
  • Country −13% still N.
  • Category definitions on the same PDF: Normal >= −19% and <= +19%; Deficient >= −59% and <= −20%; Large Deficient <= −60%.
  • 14 states Deficient = 35% of country area.

GEOGLAM Crop Monitor special report 16 Jun 2026

From GEOGLAM special report 202606 — intensity forecast is STALE (June CPC 63% very-strong NDJ). Historical grain only. Do not treat the June 63% as current CPC.

It cuts against a monsoon-failure / 35% calorie-deficit analogue: strong El Niños 1997 and 2015 produced India maize and rice yield deficits of about 0 to 3% below trend. Global rice 1.0–1.5% below trend; soy 1.5–2.0% above. Southern Africa maize is the GEOGLAM regional concern (SA −20%, Zimbabwe up to −40% in those events), not an India 35% monsoon-failure analogue.

Reuters/WHBL unofficial ~15% still not grain.

Addendum — nitrogen extras (Scout part 2)

Verdicts unchanged: nitrogen KEEP-AS-QUESTION, water KEEP-AS-HYPOTHESIS. No second product. No AFC spot. Do not cite Motley Fool / CRU / IFDC unless fetched.

From CF Industries EX-99.1, 5 August 2026 already in this clip:

  • Granular urea Q2 average selling price $593/product ton vs $460 in Q2 2025.
  • Chinese urea exports projected 4–6 million metric tons in 2026 (quotas/price floors from May 2026). Named driver remains Iran/Hormuz, not El Niño.

Do not file Frost India 9–10 MMT from Motley Fool. Vault Q1 10–12 MMT stays as the Q1 prior; do not overwrite it with an unfetched transcript.

From World Bank CMO eight-charts blog, 30 Apr 2026:

  • Agricultural commodity prices projected to decline 6% in 2026 (beverage −30% more than offsets food +2%). This corrects the May wiki prior of −2%.
  • Fertilizer price index projected +31% (blog: "more than 30%") in 2026; urea described as the most pronounced mover; no +60% figure on this page — do not invent +60% from an unfetched PDF.
  • Energy +24%.
  • El Niño appears only as an upside risk to the food-price outlook, not as the nitrogen clearing mechanism.

CBAM/EU stocks still not re-evidenced. Named clearing remains Hormuz.

Addendum provenance

Referenced by
Concepts
El Niño 2026: commodity / agriculture / energy impact
Questions
CBAM supply-routing + El Niño demand collision → H2 2026 nitrogen price spike → CF Industries / Nutrien re-rateEl Niño 2026 drought + atmospheric-river volatility → a structural step-up in US water-infrastructure capex → re-rate the water pure-plays (XYL, AWK, WTS)?
Entities
CF Industries (CF)Nutrien (NTR)
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