Summary

As of Friday 28 Aug 2026, the Intel foundry chain has not graduated. No Intel 8-K, 10-Q, newsroom release, or earnings call since the 23 Jul 2026 Q2 8-K names an external 18A or 14A wafer customer. Honest none-found.

The next dated windows are already on the page: 14A PDK 0.9 in October, then the H2 2026 → H1 2027 customer-decision span (vault prior from the 24 Jul 2026 follow-up; Q2 prepared remarks and 10-Q do not re-date or retract it). Confirm remains a named outside 18A/14A order in a filing or call. The 27 Aug 2026 close of $92.09 still sits on an unproven-foundry print: external foundry $293 million against Foundry revenue $5.8 billion and an operating loss of $2.1 billion. No new primary says external foundry has become material.

Findings

Checkpoints (dated)

1. October 2026 — 14A PDK 0.9 (and the next Intel update). Lip-Bu Tan on the 23 Jul 2026 prepared remarks: “PDK 0.9 is on track for October.” Dave Zinsner, same remarks: Intel Foundry “met critical milestones towards delivering the 0.9 PDK for Intel 14A in October.” Tan closed the call: “I look forward to … providing another update in October.” Intel IR still lists Q2 2026 as the latest results. No official Q3 report-date notice. Do not invent a calendar day for Q3.

2. H2 2026 — first half of the 14A customer-decision window. Already on the vault page (two unnamed prospects; decisions H2 2026 → H1 2027). The Q2 10-Q does not name those prospects and does not move the window. That is the early checkpoint, not a reason to wait.

3. H1 2027 — remainder of the same decision window. Internal 14A risk production is H2 2027; HVM commit 2028 — execution, not the outside-order test.

IEDM 2026 (12–16 Dec, San Francisco) is not a checkpoint unless Intel ties it to a named customer process.

Confirm

A named outside 18A or 14A order in an Intel filing or earnings call. Honest none-found since 23 Jul 2026.

Socionext (18 Aug 2026) “will leverage Intel 18A-P process technology in the development of custom SoCs” (Socionext PR) is a design-house development note, not an Intel 8-K/call wafer order. Leave it off the graduation line. Do not mint a Socionext entity.

Break

• PDK 0.9 misses October, or Tan’s October update walks the on-track language.
• H2 2026 closes with still-unnamed 14A prospects, or the window slips.
• H1 2027 closes without a named outside 18A/14A order.
• Q3 / October call still names no customer.

A Socionext-style ecosystem note, an internal 14A HVM commit, or another equity raise does not confirm or break the chain.

Old-world pricing

Yes. Vault last $92.09 (27 Aug 2026 close, stockanalysis). External foundry $293M vs Foundry $5.8B and ~$2.1B op-loss. 10-Q still “higher-cost” 18A wafers. August $20B offering is capital, not a foundry-order print.

Gage range (~30/~25 Watch) stays on the entity as Gage judgment. Named order is the late tell, not the buy trigger (already on the Gage slot if 165 is on main).

Provenance

Method: Grok Bot / WebSearch / fetch ladder / native X Generated: 2026-08-28 X sources: none found (search_news client-not-enrolled). Grokipedia: not used.

Full retrieved URL list is in /workspace/intel-foundry-checkpoints-clip.md on the research box if you need a citation; do not invent URLs. Prefer citing the Q2 prepared remarks PDF, Q2 10-Q, Q2 8-K, stockanalysis INTC, and Socionext PR already linked above.