Autoresearch: As of 19 Sep 2026, what do primary/official figures say about Taiwan energy reserves, fab restart, and blockade GDP vs “greater than the Great Depression”?

Generated by /autoresearch on 2026-09-19. Synthesized across 2 rounds from CNA/Taiwan News WSJ recaps, MOEA, S&P Global, Bloomberg/IEP. See Provenance. Treat as raw material — review before promoting into a project or thread. Context: vault/projects/stock-market Research-only. No buy/sell/size. No encyclopedia-as-source.

Summary

Gelsinger’s “<3 weeks of energy reserves” compresses a fuel-specific stack. WSJ (via CNA / Taiwan News) citing CSIS wargames: LNG under two weeks, coal seven weeks. MOEA/S&P: LNG buffer 10–11 days (law → 14 days by 2027), coal ~39–41 days, oil 146 days (90-day statutory). Minister Kung: backup coal / hydro / renewables; WSJ “total blackout” is disputed. Modeled blockade hits are large and not a Depression: Bloomberg Economics −5.3% world / −12.5% TW / −8.9% CN / −3.2% US in year one; IEP −2.8% world / $2.7T. Great Depression peak US real GDP drop is a different object. Step 4 stays open. Step 3’s 90-day restart is still not operator-disclosed. 0-for-7 brownout base rate is untouched.

Findings

Reserves are LNG-thin, not “three weeks of energy”

Taiwan News: “If Chinese forces surrounded Taiwan, its ability to generate electricity would be crippled, Wall Street Journal reported. In a wargame conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Taiwan’s LNG supplies lasted less than two weeks, while coal lasted for seven.” A Taiwanese national-security official said supplies “could last longer”; rationing “would affect manufacturing, including the semiconductor industry.” 97% of energy imported (Taiwan News).

CNA via OCAC: Minister Kung Ming-hsin pledged to expand storage “as quickly as possible” after the WSJ piece; “China could ‘force Taiwan into a total blackout’ by conducting a blockade.” Same CSIS split (LNG <2 weeks / coal 7 weeks). Kung: standby coal, renewables, hydro (OCAC/CNA).

S&P Global (industry + MOEA): “buffer stock of natural gas covers 10 to 11 days, while coal is about 39 days and oil is about 146 days.” LNG 83.4% of 2023 gas demand from power. “Once the island is blockaded, its natural gas supply is not expected to sustain for more than two weeks” (a China-based gas executive — qualify) (S&P Global).

CIER: Petroleum Administration Act 90 days oil; MOEA 2022 146 days oil; 11 days LNG security storage; Taipower coal 41 days. Chao/TCAN wartime rationing models can stretch toward ~200 days / ~1 year only by assuming 2027 targets and ~70% demand cuts — not a lights-on fab schedule (CIER).

Step 4 is rhetoric against published models

Bloomberg Economics (Insurance Journal reprint, Feb 2026): blockade year-one GDP Taiwan −12.5%, China −8.9%, US −3.2%, world −5.3%; war path ~$10.6T / ~9.6% world. Advanced-electronics output −60% under blockade (Insurance Journal). IEP: $2.7T / −2.8% world in year one; Taiwan ~−40%; China ~−7% (IEP / Vision of Humanity). Rhodium (2022): >$2T activity at risk in a blockade before responses — not a GDP% (Rhodium).

None of these equals “greater than the Great Depression.” Directionally severe; unquantified as written. Step 4 stays open.

90-day restart still Gelsinger-only

No TSMC/Intel/Samsung disclosure of a 90-day cold-start was retrieved. Do not promote Step 3.

Contradictions and open questions

• Seven prior blockades / exercises → zero brownouts remains the strongest counter; no 2026 primary changes it.
• Do not re-rate INTC/TSM. Option-value framing only.
• OQ on the duration threshold that separates exercises from brownout stays.

Provenance

Rounds run: 2 of 3 (early-exit — WSJ/CSIS + Bloomberg/IEP answered steps 1 and 4). X sources: attempted via X search_news; spend-cap 403. Not used. Grokipedia: not used for any 2026 claim.

Web sources:

• Taiwan News — WSJ/CSIS recap.
• OCAC/CNA — Kung; same WSJ figures.
• S&P Global — 10–11 / 39 / 146 days.
• CIER — statutory vs wartime-ration models.
• Insurance Journal / Bloomberg Economics — −5.3% world blockade.
• IEP — $2.7T / −2.8%.
• Rhodium — >$2T at risk.

Generated: 2026-09-19