Financials / rate-regime bucket: hike printed, NII conversion still open
After Wednesday's 25 bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, Schwab's last disclosed scenario still assumed one December hike. No new 10-Q/8-K this morning isolating post-hike NII. Do not graduate the brokerage-NII hypothesis.
view source ↗Financials / rate-regime bucket: hike printed, NII conversion still open
Filed by the 2026-09-21 stock-market daily routine (headless). Financials is a thin vertical (step 2a). This is a conversion check, not a new chain.
What is new since Friday
Nothing on Schwab's IR or EDGAR this morning isolates post-hike net interest income. The Q2 call (July 21) is still the last primary: CFO Mike Verdeschi's scenario assumed one 25 bp hike in December, "minimal impact on 2026," expansion in 2027; full-year NIM 3.00–3.10%, 4Q exit 3.25–3.30%. (Motley Fool transcript.)
The FOMC did hike a quarter point on September 16, to 3.75–4.00%, with the median SEP at 4.1% for year-end 2026 and 2027. That is earlier than Schwab's December scenario. It is not a revised NII model from the company. Bassman's Macro Voices tape (ingested Friday) remains color on credibility versus inflation, not a Schwab haircut.
AInvest's September recap restates Q2 NIR $3.36 billion / +19% YoY and the cash-sorting fade — already in the Q2 print. It is not a new 10-Q.
What it means
- warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate stays hypothesis. Conversion bar is still sell-side / company NII models that bake the September hike, not the hike itself.
- Do not graduate SCHW. Do not re-date a SCHW signal that was never emitted as active at the 0.4 floor.
- Forward Guidance "Fed is hiking into a growth slowdown" (Sep 18) was in the podcast work list; AssemblyAI returned negative balance this run so the episode was not transcribed. Log and continue.