DAT Dry Van Report dated Sep 21 for week ending Sep 18: van spot linehaul $2.17/mi (−1.2% / −$0.03 WoW, +32.8% / +$0.53 YoY, +19.7% vs 9-year seasonal). Load-to-truck 11.22. 35-day forecast ~$2.15 by late October. Cass shipments turned positive (headline). Do not re-rate WERN/KNX/SNDR.

Transport bucket: van tape eased a penny-plus; the year-over-year premium held

Filed by the 2026-09-22 stock-market daily routine (headless). Transport / logistics is a thin vertical (step 2a / bucket #11). This is a rate tape, not a Q3 print.

What is new (DAT, September 21)

Dean Croke, DAT Dry Van Report (September 21, 2026), week ending September 18, 2026:

Dry van spot linehaul paid to carriers averaged $2.17 per mile last week, minus fuel — down 1.2%, or $0.03 per mile, from the week before.
Rates climbed 32.8%, or $0.53 per mile, year over year and held 19.7%, or $0.36 per mile, above the nine-year seasonal average of $1.82.
Bellwether-state moves-weighted outbound rate $2.96 a mile, essentially flat week over week, +41.5% / +$0.87 vs a year ago.
Van load posts +15.0% WoW / +33.3% YoY. Equipment posts +8.5% on the week, −30.5% vs a year ago. Load-to-truck ratio 11.22.
35-day DAT Rate Forecast: dry van spot near $2.15 a mile by late October (±$0.08). That endpoint is about $0.46 above the same date last year ($1.69).

Monday's dispatch still marked DAT van at $2.20. This week's print is $2.17. A three-cent ease on a still-elevated year-over-year premium is tape, not a cycle break.

The report headline says Cass shipments turned positive, ending the longest freight downturn on record. The fetched body does not reprint the Cass percentage in the opening sections used here; treat "turned positive" as DAT's headline characterization of the Cass August line, not a new Cass table. The August Cass numbers already on the truckload page (linehaul +11.3% y/y / shipments +2.1%) are the last quantified Cass print.

What it means for existing theses

driver-supply-removal-to-truckload-contract-rate-inflection — Step 3 (spot → contract) is already confirmed on prior DAT/Cass. A $2.17 print vs $2.20 is not a falsifier. Do not re-rate WERN / KNX / SNDR. Q3 prints remain late October.
up-nsc-transcontinental-merger-to-pricing-power — no STB news in this pass. Do not re-date UNP.

What this is not

Not a Q3 earnings print.
Not a Howmet aerospace primary (HWM Q3 still unprinted).
Not a reason to mint AI-infrastructure.

Primary URLs

DAT Dry Van Report (Sep 21): https://www.dat.com/blog/dry-van-report-cass-shipments-turn-positive-ending-the-longest-freight-downturn-on-record