Dan Ivascyn
Group Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO
“The real change is that AI disruption's here. All this AI investment is looking to feast on old economy businesses. Businesses that had the so-called moats, they had attractive current cash flows... services, tax software, lawyers, financial services, financial services software. All of these areas of the market that are likely to be disrupted and disrupted with increasing frequency... You're going to see higher realized losses that we've seen in quite some time. And those losses are going to be somewhat independent of the strength of the economy... the more productive AI is at the economy level, the more disruptive it's going to be.”
“It's a steady stream of losses now, not a wave. If you combine this AI disruption with a negative growth shock to the economy, especially if it's stagflationary... almost all of that debt that we talked about that did so well in 2022 is floating rate. If you don't get that short rate down... now you have companies that are facing AI disruption. They already have a lot of debt and higher costs and higher cost to service that debt. So any type of growth shock with inflation remaining elevated would be a far worse scenario for credit... those types of segments of the economy that were used to having losses close to zero are likely going to have a period where those losses end up migrating up to the mid single digits.”
“We're trying to get a bit more of a bearish or cautionary message when you're lending against AI investments. And at best, you get par back, hopefully — unlike some of these private AI companies where you're talking about 5, 10 times multiples, tripling money, it's a different conversation.”
“When you have a lot of AI euphoria going on, when you've had a period where we haven't had a loss cycle in a long time, you can create the illusion of safety just because those types of assets haven't moved around a lot in the past.”
Dan Ivascyn
One-line summary: PIMCO Group CIO; manages the world's largest active fixed-income complex. Surfaced (Compound & Friends, June 2026) the AI-disruption credit-loss thesis: AI is 'feasting on old-economy businesses' (software/services/financial-services-software), driving a steady stream of realized private-credit losses independent of the economy — amplified by floating-rate debt if rates stay higher-for-longer. Primary corroborator of the private-credit-contagion chain.
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Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On ai-capex-derate-to-private-credit-contagion, seat-based-saas-ai-disruption:
"The real change is that AI disruption's here. All this AI investment is looking to feast on old economy businesses. Businesses that had the so-called moats, they had attractive current cash flows... services, tax software, lawyers, financial services, financial services software. All of these areas of the market that are likely to be disrupted and disrupted with increasing frequency... You're going to see higher realized losses that we've seen in quite some time. And those losses are going to be somewhat independent of the strength of the economy... the more productive AI is at the economy level, the more disruptive it's going to be." — 2026-06-15-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-how-pimco-is-preparing-for-the-next-capital-loss (2026-06-15)
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On ai-capex-derate-to-private-credit-contagion, supply-shock-inflation-persistence:
"It's a steady stream of losses now, not a wave. If you combine this AI disruption with a negative growth shock to the economy, especially if it's stagflationary... almost all of that debt that we talked about that did so well in 2022 is floating rate. If you don't get that short rate down... now you have companies that are facing AI disruption. They already have a lot of debt and higher costs and higher cost to service that debt. So any type of growth shock with inflation remaining elevated would be a far worse scenario for credit... those types of segments of the economy that were used to having losses close to zero are likely going to have a period where those losses end up migrating up to the mid single digits." — 2026-06-15-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-how-pimco-is-preparing-for-the-next-capital-loss (2026-06-15)
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On ai-capex-derate-to-private-credit-contagion:
"We're trying to get a bit more of a bearish or cautionary message when you're lending against AI investments. And at best, you get par back, hopefully — unlike some of these private AI companies where you're talking about 5, 10 times multiples, tripling money, it's a different conversation." — 2026-06-15-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-how-pimco-is-preparing-for-the-next-capital-loss (2026-06-15)
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On ai-capex-derate-to-private-credit-contagion:
"When you have a lot of AI euphoria going on, when you've had a period where we haven't had a loss cycle in a long time, you can create the illusion of safety just because those types of assets haven't moved around a lot in the past." — 2026-06-15-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-how-pimco-is-preparing-for-the-next-capital-loss (2026-06-15)
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