Denise Chisholm
Director of Quantitative Market Strategy, Fidelity Investments (Quantitative Research and Investments division); informs 150+ portfolio managers overseeing 450+ mutual funds and ETFs
“when you sort of quartile out the oil like advances that you see over time, 10%, 20%, all the way up to 60%, you say, is there a pattern between what has happened to oil over six months and what the Federal Reserve will do over the next 12 months? There's a negative pattern. The bigger the shock in oil, the lower the probability that the Fed hike 25% is not zero. But even when oil is up 60, what you see is only a 25% chance that the Federal Reserve hikes. Why? Because most of the time since the 1980s, you don't see a pass through to core inflation. And by most I mean 48%.”
“If you look at core CPI and you take out shelter, if you say, let's call shelter a supply shock this time around, because that's exactly what happened, right? Interest rates went up, everybody was locked in their mortgages, so nobody wanted to sell. So it's acting like a supply shock. If you look at core CPI X shelter. Do you know what it was last quarter or last month? 2.3%.”
“At the bubble time, when you measure it, especially relative to free cash flow. At the peak of the bubble in 2000, corporate America in aggregate was spending three and a half to four times their free cash flow. At the time, we are still under one in terms of free cash flow.”
“equal weighted earnings growth has actually been contractionary. From a duration perspective, smaller companies have not had the same earnings boost...the duration of the decline was three years...we're just really getting started...four months into what should be at minimum a three year recovery. This is where it starts.”
Denise Chisholm
One-line summary: Fidelity quantitative strategist. Key data-driven insights: oil shocks historically make the Fed less likely to hike (negative pattern since 1980s, <50% core pass-through); core CPI ex-shelter = 2.3% (shelter acting as supply shock, not demand); capex recovery is not a bubble (FCF still covers capex in aggregate — under 1x vs. 3.5-4x in 2000); S&P 493 equal-weighted earnings recovery only four months old after a 3-year contraction — still early.
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Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On supply-shock-inflation-persistence:
"when you sort of quartile out the oil like advances that you see over time, 10%, 20%, all the way up to 60%, you say, is there a pattern between what has happened to oil over six months and what the Federal Reserve will do over the next 12 months? There's a negative pattern. The bigger the shock in oil, the lower the probability that the Fed hike 25% is not zero. But even when oil is up 60, what you see is only a 25% chance that the Federal Reserve hikes. Why? Because most of the time since the 1980s, you don't see a pass through to core inflation. And by most I mean 48%." — 2026-05-29-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-what-if-it-s-still-early-with-denise-chisholm (2026-05-29)
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On supply-shock-inflation-persistence:
"If you look at core CPI and you take out shelter, if you say, let's call shelter a supply shock this time around, because that's exactly what happened, right? Interest rates went up, everybody was locked in their mortgages, so nobody wanted to sell. So it's acting like a supply shock. If you look at core CPI X shelter. Do you know what it was last quarter or last month? 2.3%." — 2026-05-29-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-what-if-it-s-still-early-with-denise-chisholm (2026-05-29)
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On ai-capex-to-power-and-materials-cascade:
"At the bubble time, when you measure it, especially relative to free cash flow. At the peak of the bubble in 2000, corporate America in aggregate was spending three and a half to four times their free cash flow. At the time, we are still under one in terms of free cash flow." — 2026-05-29-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-what-if-it-s-still-early-with-denise-chisholm (2026-05-29)
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"equal weighted earnings growth has actually been contractionary. From a duration perspective, smaller companies have not had the same earnings boost...the duration of the decline was three years...we're just really getting started...four months into what should be at minimum a three year recovery. This is where it starts." — 2026-05-29-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-what-if-it-s-still-early-with-denise-chisholm (2026-05-29)
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