Harley Bassman
Inventor of the MOVE index
aka Convexity Maven
“What's going on, in my view, is we have a lack of trust in the government in a lot of our institutions, and maybe about the Fed. What's really important here is the Fed needs to go and regain the trust of the market.”
“We've had rates go up 150bps, which is a pretty big number considering where we started at. And the breakeven inflation rate between tips and nominal treasuries is 235 on average for the last four years. And by the way, I checked my Bloomberg before I started this show and we closed at a 234 spread for a 10 year inflation. That's kind of crazy town because what it's telling you is inflation. No one cares about inflation.”
“Can we get higher rates because of their borrowing? Yes, but these guys have, most of them have underlying cash machines. They can certainly cover the cost of the debt. ... Now that doesn't mean the equity holders are going to do well. ... I think the bonds are probably money good.”
Harley Bassman
One-line summary: Fixed-income strategist; Convexity Maven; inventor of the MOVE index. Tracked for Fed-credibility and term-premium color on the SCHW NII hypothesis.
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Said
Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"What's going on, in my view, is we have a lack of trust in the government in a lot of our institutions, and maybe about the Fed. What's really important here is the Fed needs to go and regain the trust of the market." — 2026-09-18-macro-voices-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust (2026-09-17)
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"We've had rates go up 150bps, which is a pretty big number considering where we started at. And the breakeven inflation rate between tips and nominal treasuries is 235 on average for the last four years. And by the way, I checked my Bloomberg before I started this show and we closed at a 234 spread for a 10 year inflation. That's kind of crazy town because what it's telling you is inflation. No one cares about inflation." — 2026-09-18-macro-voices-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust (2026-09-17)
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"Can we get higher rates because of their borrowing? Yes, but these guys have, most of them have underlying cash machines. They can certainly cover the cost of the debt. ... Now that doesn't mean the equity holders are going to do well. ... I think the bonds are probably money good." — 2026-09-18-macro-voices-macrovoices-550-harley-bassman-in-fed-we-trust (2026-09-17)
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