Javier Blas
Bloomberg Opinion columnist (commodities/energy) · Author, The World for Sale
“I do think that perhaps what I underestimated is the amount of demand destruction that we have seen already. Somehow we have managed to reduce demand by probably about 5 million barrels a day. It's about 5% of the market, without really creating a lot of economic pain.”
“for the global economy, for the stock market, it does matter where the demand destruction is happening. It's not the same that it happens say in Pakistan or Bangladesh, that it happens in Germany, as it was the case in 2022.”
“let's use the German contract as an average of Europe pre2022 price, say that it was 50 to €75 per megawatt hour. That went to €1,000 per megawatt hour. Now it's around 80. So not far away to really the normal level.”
“Oil is very important because it permeates everywhere... if we have a food price in the next few months, it's going to be more because everything is more expensive to transport.”
“we are talking about a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day extra compared to a hole in the market of 10 million. It's not really going to move the needle.”
“this is the biggest challenge that I think OPEC has faced... OPEC is dead. And I will say that it is not dead, really bleeding and bleeding badly.”
“The UAE have the ambition to produce a lot more oil... with a capacity of four and a half million barrels a day, they want to go to five million barrels a day and potentially higher. They have the geological endowment to produce that extra oil. And they have also the money to back the dreams that they have.”
“at some point you're going to see a raise for market share. And if we have a race for market share, then everyone wants to produce more oil, then the price of oil has to come down.”
“What is different in 2022 is that the fertilizer price increased a lot of, but the price of corn also increased a lot... this time, corn prices have barely moved. They're at $4.5 a bushel. And the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof. So that spread is effectively negative to the farmer.”
Javier Blas
One-line summary: Bloomberg Opinion commodities/energy columnist; tracked for oil-market-structure and OPEC mechanism articulation (2026 vs 2022 energy shock; UAE-OPEC-exit market-share-war thesis).
What they're known for
Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities and energy; author of The World for Sale (on the commodity-trading houses). One of the most-cited voices on oil-market structure, OPEC dynamics, and the global energy complex. A recurring Odd Lots guest.
Why they matter to stock-market
Blas articulates mechanisms, not just forecasts — exactly the signal this project prizes. In the May 2026 Odd Lots live show he laid out two tradeable causal chains: (1) why the 2026 oil shock is structurally different from 2022 (energy-shock-2026-vs-2022) — oil-via-transport vs. electricity-via-bills, with the ~$100 ceiling held by a temporary demand-destruction/inventory cushion that "cannot go forever"; and (2) the UAE-OPEC-exit market-share-war thesis (uae-opec-exit-to-oil-market-share-war) — why a Hormuz reopening likely pushes oil down, not up. His corn-vs-fertilizer "spread is negative to the farmer" point feeds the ag chains too.
Said
Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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"I do think that perhaps what I underestimated is the amount of demand destruction that we have seen already. Somehow we have managed to reduce demand by probably about 5 million barrels a day. It's about 5% of the market, without really creating a lot of economic pain." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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"for the global economy, for the stock market, it does matter where the demand destruction is happening. It's not the same that it happens say in Pakistan or Bangladesh, that it happens in Germany, as it was the case in 2022." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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"let's use the German contract as an average of Europe pre2022 price, say that it was 50 to €75 per megawatt hour. That went to €1,000 per megawatt hour. Now it's around 80. So not far away to really the normal level." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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On energy-shock-2026-vs-2022, supply-shock-inflation-persistence:
"Oil is very important because it permeates everywhere... if we have a food price in the next few months, it's going to be more because everything is more expensive to transport." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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"we are talking about a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day extra compared to a hole in the market of 10 million. It's not really going to move the needle." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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On uae-opec-exit-to-oil-market-share-war:
"this is the biggest challenge that I think OPEC has faced... OPEC is dead. And I will say that it is not dead, really bleeding and bleeding badly." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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On uae-opec-exit-to-oil-market-share-war:
"The UAE have the ambition to produce a lot more oil... with a capacity of four and a half million barrels a day, they want to go to five million barrels a day and potentially higher. They have the geological endowment to produce that extra oil. And they have also the money to back the dreams that they have." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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On uae-opec-exit-to-oil-market-share-war:
"at some point you're going to see a raise for market share. And if we have a race for market share, then everyone wants to produce more oil, then the price of oil has to come down." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
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On el-nino-2026-commodity-impact, cbam-to-fertilizer-price-deferral:
"What is different in 2022 is that the fertilizer price increased a lot of, but the price of corn also increased a lot... this time, corn prices have barely moved. They're at $4.5 a bushel. And the price of fertilizer has gone through the roof. So that spread is effectively negative to the farmer." — 2026-05-18-odd-lots-why-the-price-of-oil-beef-electricity-and (2026-05-18)
Sources
Related
- energy-shock-2026-vs-2022 — his 2026-vs-2022 energy-shock thesis
- uae-opec-exit-to-oil-market-share-war — his OPEC market-share-war chain
- supply-shock-inflation-persistence — his transport-cost inflation channel
- el-nino-2026-commodity-impact — his corn-vs-fertilizer spread point
- lorcan-roche-kelly — co-guest on the same episode