Joseph Wang
Former NY Fed trader; author of Fed Guy / Central Banking 101
aka Fed Guy
“What really stood out to me is this last sentence where Kevin says the committee will deliver price stability, period. So that's kind of like a mic-drop moment for me. And it reminded me a lot of Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech... I got the sense that Kevin is aiming with a similar effect, trying to tell everyone that the Fed is going to be more determined to get inflation down.”
“The market is now pricing in a little bit more than one hike this year. So the entire curve basically shifted upward... he didn't have to actually hike. He did tighten financial conditions and raise rates just by his communication. We entered the year with the market pricing in a few cuts and then boom, we have the war with Iran, oil prices go up, inflation surges and the market began to price out those cuts, began to price in hikes. And even after the recent resolution when oil prices come down, the market still is pricing in some hikes.”
Joseph Wang
One-line summary: Former Federal Reserve open-market-desk trader and author of Fed Guy; macro/rates commentator. Read the Warsh FOMC debut (2026-06-17) as a deliberate hawkish regime change toward higher-for-longer.
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Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate, p-and-c-insurer-float-income-rate-regime:
"What really stood out to me is this last sentence where Kevin says the committee will deliver price stability, period. So that's kind of like a mic-drop moment for me. And it reminded me a lot of Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech... I got the sense that Kevin is aiming with a similar effect, trying to tell everyone that the Fed is going to be more determined to get inflation down." — 2026-06-17-podcast-forward-guidance-the-warsh-fed-will-look-nothing-like-before (2026-06-17)
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On ai-capex-derate-to-private-credit-contagion, warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"The market is now pricing in a little bit more than one hike this year. So the entire curve basically shifted upward... he didn't have to actually hike. He did tighten financial conditions and raise rates just by his communication. We entered the year with the market pricing in a few cuts and then boom, we have the war with Iran, oil prices go up, inflation surges and the market began to price out those cuts, began to price in hikes. And even after the recent resolution when oil prices come down, the market still is pricing in some hikes." — 2026-06-17-podcast-forward-guidance-the-warsh-fed-will-look-nothing-like-before (2026-06-17)
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