Matthew Smith
Founder & CIO, Chronometer Partners (energy/industrials/materials/power)
“We see an historic deficit in natural gas supply available in the United States, which does portend some pretty serious consequences. Natural gas, which is over 40% of US power generation, is imminently going to become the most important fuel in the country.”
“The die was cast long before AI compute came to the scene. US gas was plentiful starting in about 2010 when shale started to really change things... There's a bigger longer term question about is this just a parenthetical period of time between 2010 and now. We were awash in gas. Prior to that we really weren't. And maybe after this we really won't be.”
“Expand and EQT and others have such mature portfolios the replacement is less costly today than it would have been five years ago. So when you stack all of these wells based on existing acreage up on these companies, assuming they're going to drill optimally based on the forward curve which is depressed... you get to this flow metric.”
Matthew Smith
One-line summary: Energy-sector investor (founder/CIO of Chronometer Partners); argues US faces a structural natural-gas supply deficit by 2026-2030 as AI/datacenter power demand collides with a flow-not-stock takeaway constraint.
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Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On ai-gas-demand-to-appalachian-producer-price-floor, electricity-price-drivers-decomposition:
"We see an historic deficit in natural gas supply available in the United States, which does portend some pretty serious consequences. Natural gas, which is over 40% of US power generation, is imminently going to become the most important fuel in the country." — 2026-07-21-matthew-smith-how-america-runs-out-of-natural-gas-by-2030 (2026-07-21)
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On ai-gas-demand-to-appalachian-producer-price-floor:
"The die was cast long before AI compute came to the scene. US gas was plentiful starting in about 2010 when shale started to really change things... There's a bigger longer term question about is this just a parenthetical period of time between 2010 and now. We were awash in gas. Prior to that we really weren't. And maybe after this we really won't be." — 2026-07-21-matthew-smith-how-america-runs-out-of-natural-gas-by-2030 (2026-07-21)
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On ai-gas-demand-to-appalachian-producer-price-floor:
"Expand and EQT and others have such mature portfolios the replacement is less costly today than it would have been five years ago. So when you stack all of these wells based on existing acreage up on these companies, assuming they're going to drill optimally based on the forward curve which is depressed... you get to this flow metric." — 2026-07-21-matthew-smith-how-america-runs-out-of-natural-gas-by-2030 (2026-07-21)
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