Nick Colas
Co-founder, DataTrek Research
“If SpaceX closes day one [at] 231, we are legit in a 99 bubble, particularly with a deal of this size... We literally are going to set the calendar for where we are versus 1999 or 1997. If we only get last year's average IPO return, it's 174.”
“Tesla finally has a valuation comp [via SpaceX]. He might want to merge Tesla with SpaceX when Tesla is making a lot of free cash flow from robots, because the one thing SpaceX is short is cash flow to finish — that's literally why they're going public, to raise the capital.”
“This is why the S and P is a 20 times earnings. It is not a function of some irrational exuberance. It is a function of the market looking at the last 15 years and saying earnings are pretty steady, we can pay more for them because we're not going to be disappointed next year with a big recession.”
“The cause of that implosion was 110% the Fed. It was the realization like, oh my God, the cost of capital was going to go away very quickly.”
Nick Colas
One-line summary: DataTrek Research co-founder; markets/strategy commentator framing the SpaceX IPO as a 1997-vs-1999 dot-com regime marker.
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Said
Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On mega-issuance-supply-wave, spacex-ipo-post-listing-entry-timing, ipo-comeback-public-market-value-capture:
"If SpaceX closes day one [at] 231, we are legit in a 99 bubble, particularly with a deal of this size... We literally are going to set the calendar for where we are versus 1999 or 1997. If we only get last year's average IPO return, it's 174." — 2026-06-08-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-nick-colas-and-jessica-rabe-on-the-6-standard (2026-06-08)
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On spacex-public-mark-to-space-peer-rerate:
"Tesla finally has a valuation comp [via SpaceX]. He might want to merge Tesla with SpaceX when Tesla is making a lot of free cash flow from robots, because the one thing SpaceX is short is cash flow to finish — that's literally why they're going public, to raise the capital." — 2026-06-08-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-nick-colas-and-jessica-rabe-on-the-6-standard (2026-06-08)
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On us-recession-resistance-regime:
"This is why the S and P is a 20 times earnings. It is not a function of some irrational exuberance. It is a function of the market looking at the last 15 years and saying earnings are pretty steady, we can pay more for them because we're not going to be disappointed next year with a big recession." — 2026-07-13-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-the-number-one-question-facing-investors-how-the (2026-07-13)
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On us-recession-resistance-regime, ai-roi-reckoning:
"The cause of that implosion was 110% the Fed. It was the realization like, oh my God, the cost of capital was going to go away very quickly." — 2026-07-13-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-the-number-one-question-facing-investors-how-the (2026-07-13)
Sources
- 2026-06-08-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-nick-colas-and-jessica-rabe-on-the-6-standard
- 2026-07-13-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-the-number-one-question-facing-investors-how-the
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