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Pat Gelsinger

Former CEO, Intel · Investor (PsiQuantum portfolio)

Quotes

The island of Taiwan has less than three weeks. A big article in the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago on this. Less than three weeks of energy reserves.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#taiwan-energy-blockade-to-fab-restart-cascade#us-fab-capacity-bottleneck

When you turn off a fab, it doesn't come back on for 90 days.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#taiwan-energy-blockade-to-fab-restart-cascade

Never do you need to do anything. A shot to be fired. You just need to say, great, no energy for three weeks.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#taiwan-energy-blockade-to-fab-restart-cascade#taiwan-chokepoint-to-allied-reshoring

And now it's more like seven to one in terms of wafers, you know, to tsmc, to Intel.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#taiwan-chokepoint-to-allied-reshoring#us-fab-capacity-bottleneck#tsmc-capacity-shortfall-and-pricing-power

One is the CHIPS act is having benefit. Yeah, right. You know, when we started the chips act and you know, when 2001, when I came back, the US was building about 12% of leading edge. Today that number is more like 18%.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#us-fab-capacity-bottleneck#us-industrial-policy-tariff-shield

nobody's going to build and buy GPUs and build data centers if they don't have energy. So essentially you have an upper bound on how aggressive and how hyped and bubbled that we get.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#ai-capex-to-power-and-materials-cascade#ai-roi-reckoning

You know, energy capacity in the world is expanding 4, 5%. You know, in the U.S. we had a decade at 1%.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#ai-capex-to-power-and-materials-cascade#electricity-price-drivers-decomposition

And obviously, you know, in the five years, five, six years before I came back, you know, intel gave $100 billion to shareholders.

But it was never standardized in a way that it could be made available for a broad ecosystem using PDKs and all the design tools. We did a lot of our own EDA tools ourself.

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#us-fab-capacity-bottleneck#samsung-as-third-foundry-leg

I have to make AI 10,000x better. Right. You know, it's way too expensive today. You know, we want to drop, you know, by five orders of magnitude the cost per token, you know, the energy, you know, per token, so that we really do have Jevons Law, that we just explode the access to AI

2026-07-15-podcast-all-in-podcast-former-intel-ceo-on-what-went-wrong-what-s-next· 2026-07-15#token-price-inflation-favors-asset-heavy-compute#ai-roi-reckoning
Notes

Pat Gelsinger

One-line summary: Former Intel CEO (2021-2024); career semiconductor engineer. Argues Taiwan's binding vulnerability is energy interdiction, not invasion, and that energy capacity is the physical ceiling on the AI buildout.

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