Rory Johnston
Founder of Commodity Context (oil market research)
aka Rory Johnson
“On multiple days over the past week or two, we've seen flows out of Hormuz alone exceed 20 million barrels, which is the pre war level... we've probably seen days where we've had kind of 130% or so of pre war supply coming out of the Middle East... we've seen give or take kind of 12 million barrels a day getting out of Hormuz, but we've only seen loadings of around 5 ish, 5 to 6 million barrels a day.”
“Iran has proven that it can close Hormuz. That much has been made clear. What we have not yet seen is if one, it can keep it closed and... can they actually manage the flow... right now it seems like Iran has a hammer, but doesn't have like the more fine tuned tools that may be required to actually force compliance here.”
“The delta in crude imports we saw between the December to February average... to the average we... imported through June was a 5 million barrel a day delta... it appears to me, it seems to me be to be a discretionary policy choice by Beijing because you have not seen any real dislocation in domestic mobility indicators.”
“Crude oil is currently the weakest part of the petroleum market... We are also seeing refined product crack spreads exploding across the board. Diesels back up around 60 bucks a barrel versus like a norm of like 20ish. And gasoline also normal 20ish crack spread right now is up around 50... we're retesting the all time high crack spreads... that we experienced only one other time in history, which is 2022.”
“I think we could probably see six to ten dollars a barrel on upside from spec positioning normalization alone. And if we got a kind of a big fundamental development over this period... momentum could probably bring us 15, $20 a barrel higher on positioning.”
Rory Johnston
One-line summary: Oil-flows analyst (Commodity Context); tracked here for Hormuz flow math, crude term structure, and the crude-vs-products split during the 2026 energy shock.
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Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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"On multiple days over the past week or two, we've seen flows out of Hormuz alone exceed 20 million barrels, which is the pre war level... we've probably seen days where we've had kind of 130% or so of pre war supply coming out of the Middle East... we've seen give or take kind of 12 million barrels a day getting out of Hormuz, but we've only seen loadings of around 5 ish, 5 to 6 million barrels a day." — 2026-07-02-podcast-macro-voices-macrovoices-539-rory-johnston-hormuz-crisis-is-it (2026-07-02)
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"Iran has proven that it can close Hormuz. That much has been made clear. What we have not yet seen is if one, it can keep it closed and... can they actually manage the flow... right now it seems like Iran has a hammer, but doesn't have like the more fine tuned tools that may be required to actually force compliance here." — 2026-07-02-podcast-macro-voices-macrovoices-539-rory-johnston-hormuz-crisis-is-it (2026-07-02)
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On china-oil-import-pullback-reentry:
"The delta in crude imports we saw between the December to February average... to the average we... imported through June was a 5 million barrel a day delta... it appears to me, it seems to me be to be a discretionary policy choice by Beijing because you have not seen any real dislocation in domestic mobility indicators." — 2026-07-02-podcast-macro-voices-macrovoices-539-rory-johnston-hormuz-crisis-is-it (2026-07-02)
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On refining-bottleneck-to-refiner-crack-capture:
"Crude oil is currently the weakest part of the petroleum market... We are also seeing refined product crack spreads exploding across the board. Diesels back up around 60 bucks a barrel versus like a norm of like 20ish. And gasoline also normal 20ish crack spread right now is up around 50... we're retesting the all time high crack spreads... that we experienced only one other time in history, which is 2022." — 2026-07-02-podcast-macro-voices-macrovoices-539-rory-johnston-hormuz-crisis-is-it (2026-07-02)
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"I think we could probably see six to ten dollars a barrel on upside from spec positioning normalization alone. And if we got a kind of a big fundamental development over this period... momentum could probably bring us 15, $20 a barrel higher on positioning." — 2026-07-02-podcast-macro-voices-macrovoices-539-rory-johnston-hormuz-crisis-is-it (2026-07-02)
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