Ryan Greenblatt
Chief Scientist, Redwood Research
“I expect full automation of ARD, perhaps somewhere around 2031. 2030, and then getting to the beats. All humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033.”
“R and D is a type of task at which the AIs are especially good because both the companies are trying really hard to make their AIs good at R and D. And it's the kind of domain, it has a lot of nice properties from the perspective of how AI development works right now. So it's like pretty verifiable.”
Ryan Greenblatt
One-line summary: Technical AI-safety researcher; dated 2030–31 full AI-R&D automation / 2033 all-jobs median.
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On continual-learning-to-lab-lock-in-moat:
"I expect full automation of ARD, perhaps somewhere around 2031. 2030, and then getting to the beats. All humans on the job milestone. Maybe I expect median around 2033." — 2026-08-15-dwarkesh-podcast-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can (2026-08-11)
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On continual-learning-to-lab-lock-in-moat:
"R and D is a type of task at which the AIs are especially good because both the companies are trying really hard to make their AIs good at R and D. And it's the kind of domain, it has a lot of nice properties from the perspective of how AI development works right now. So it's like pretty verifiable." — 2026-08-15-dwarkesh-podcast-ryan-greenblatt-what-happens-once-ai-can (2026-08-11)
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