Uranium spot $85.20/lb (2-month low); Ras Laffan helium crisis cuts global supply 30-38% with $500→$1,200/Mcf spot spike; Grasberg copper guidance cut; 9.8 GW nuclear datacenter PPAs confirmed; PJM capacity prices 10x to $329/MW-day.

Energy & Critical Minerals: Uranium, Helium, Copper, Nuclear PPAs — May 2026 Forcing Functions

Synthesized from web research on 2026-05-30. Sources: TradingEconomics, INN, Fortune/Moody's, Motley Fool, SEC EDGAR, SMR Intel, IEEFA, Mining.com. Treat named figures as reported; verify against primary filings.

Uranium

Price Action

Spot: $85.20/lb as of May 28, 2026 — down 0.12% day-over-day, lowest in ~2 months
Prior month: -2.07% decline as speculative momentum from the January peak ($101.41/lb) bled off
Year-over-year: still +18.91%
Long-term contract price: $90/lb — highest since 2008, sustained from Q1
Sources: TradingEconomics, INN Q1 2026 Review

Key Catalysts

UEC — Burke Hollow commences production: Uranium Energy's Burke Hollow ISR project (Texas) commenced production — the world's newest ISR mine and the first new US ISR operation in over a decade. Combined with Christensen Ranch (Wyoming), UEC operates two active ISR hub-and-spoke systems, the only US uranium company to do so. Stock: $13.68 (daily range $13.11–$13.93), +4.3% off lows.

CCJ — India supply deal delivery: The Cameco–India $2.6B, 22M-lb 9-year supply agreement moves into delivery phase starting 2027. CCJ stock: $112.70, +2.07% May 29. Cameco's president: "the forward demand that has yet to come to the market has never been bigger."

Eagle Nuclear (NUCL) — Aurora deposit: 32.75M indicated + 4.98M inferred pounds (38M lbs total) at Oregon-Nevada border; permitting via SLR International; pursuing FAST-41 expedited processing; PFS targeted late 2027.

Structural demand: US government committed to 65M lbs for 10 new reactors. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust resumed active purchasing after 6-month pause in Q1 2026.

Source: PRNewswire NUCL

Helium Supply Crisis (Ras Laffan)

The Forcing Function

Iranian drone/missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City (March 2, 2026, follow-on March 18–19) knocked out ~30–38% of global helium supply (~5.2M cubic meters/month offline). QatarEnergy declared force majeure. Air Liquide's Airgas subsidiary also declared force majeure on contracted volumes.

Source: Rare Earth Exchanges, Fortune/Moody's

Price Impact

Pre-crisis spot: ~$500/thousand cubic feet
Post-crisis spot: $1,000–$1,200/thousand cubic feet (doubling in weeks)
Sources: Hugo Investing, WestAir

Restart Timeline (as of late May 2026)

North Ras Laffan site: could restart within ~1 month of ceasefire confirmation
South site (direct hits): not before end of summer 2026 at earliest
Structural deficit expected to persist 3–5 years
SK Hynix's 6-month inventory buffer expected to close June–July 2026 — a near-term cliff
Sources: Motley Fool May 11, Motley Fool April 18

LIN / APD Positioning

LIN (Linde): Commissioned massive Texas underground storage cavern (July 2025) with >85M cubic meters capacity; positioned to supply from inventory as spot prices surge. Moody's flagged this as a $650B problem for AI hyperscalers — helium sits directly in the AI chip production supply chain (TSMC uses ~500,000 cubic feet/year; SK Hynix sourced 64% from Qatar in 2025).
APD (Air Products): Q1 2026 earnings beat; raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $13.00–$13.25; explicitly cited helium price strength as direct tailwind; activated domestic US storage and boosted liquefaction capacity.
Both control majority of global industrial helium distribution with absolute pricing power over semiconductor customers.
Sources: Fortune/Moody's, Motley Fool April 17, NAI500

Copper

FCX / Grasberg

COMEX copper all-time high intraday: $6.71/lb (May 13, 2026)
Phased restart of Grasberg Block Cave began late March 2026, but ramp has slowed materially
FCX cut consolidated 2026 copper guidance to ~3.1B lbs (down from 3.4B lbs)
Grasberg district 2026 output now guided to ~1.0B lbs copper and ~0.9M oz gold — ~35% below pre-mudslide pace
Full Block Cave recovery deferred to 2027–2029 (avg. 1.6B lbs copper, 1.3M oz gold per year)
FCX stock: ~$65.69
Sources: Mining.com, EverTicker FCX

SCCO / Southern Copper

Q1 2026 copper mined production down 4.0% YoY on lower ore grades
2026 full-year copper guidance: 915,400 tonnes
Tía María catalyst (Peru): Exploitation permit reinstated — a long-standing regulatory hurdle cleared; project optionality unlocked
Q1 2026 capex: $441.9M, up 39% vs. Q1 2025
SCCO +4.00% on May 26, 2026
Sources: SEC SCCO 8-K April 2026, TradingKey SCCO

Nuclear / SMR — Hyperscaler Power Purchase Agreements

Aggregate Pipeline

13 announced projects committing >9.8 GW of nuclear capacity to AI infrastructure (tracker updated May 29, 2026)
Source: SMR Intel nuclear data center tracker

Key Deals

Hyperscaler	Partner	Capacity	Value	Target
Microsoft	CEG (TMI Unit 1 restart)	835 MW	$16B, 20yr PPA	2027
Meta	TerraPower, Oklo, Vistra, CEG	up to 6.6 GW	—	2027–2035
Amazon	X-energy (Xe-100 SMRs)	960 MW (phase 1: 320 MW)	$700M investment	2030s
Google	Kairos Power (KP-FHR)	500 MW	—	2030

CEG (Constellation Energy) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 11)

Adjusted EPS: $2.74 on revenues of $11.12B (+64% YoY)
Crane Clean Energy Center (TMI Unit 1) NRC regulatory decision still pending — may not clear for grid until 2031 under one scenario
Pin Oak Creek plant achieved commercial operation
Texas data center partnership on track for Q4 2026 power delivery
Source: SEC CEG 8-K May 11

NuScale (SMR) — TVA Catalyst

CEO expects TVA PPA resolved by end of 2026; ENTRA1/TVA 6 GW SMR project received $25B in US government funding (part of $550B US-Japan energy agreement)
SMR stock: $12.64; market cap $4.4B; 52-week range $8.85–$57.42
Key risk: ENTRA1 lacks nuclear industry operating history
Source: Motley Fool May 25

Nano Nuclear Energy (NUCL) — Licensing Milestone (May 20, 2026)

NRC formally accepted NUCL's Construction Permit Application for KRONOS MMR™ microreactor at University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign — the first commercially-ready microreactor to reach this licensing milestone
Source: SEC NUCL 8-K

Grid Power / Electricity Pricing

PJM capacity prices: $28.92/MW-day (2024/25) → $329.17/MW-day (2026/27) — an order-of-magnitude increase. Data centers responsible for 63% of the 2025/2026 auction price increase, translating to $9.3B in cost recovery from PJM customers.

US average retail electricity: ~19¢/kWh (+27% vs. 2019). Goldman Sachs (Feb 2026): electricity prices rising at double the rate of inflation; no relief expected given multi-year infrastructure build timelines.

This PJM capacity price spike is a direct forcing function for nuclear/gas peaker owners (CEG, Vistra, NRG) and for hyperscalers' nuclear PPA urgency.

Sources: IEEFA, CNBC/Goldman Feb 2026, Fortune May 19

Lithium / EV Battery Supply Chain

Battery-grade lithium carbonate nearly doubled in Q1 2026 to ~$26,278/tonne
China lithium carbonate: CNY 191,000/tonne as of late May (easing from >2-year high of CNY 200,500 on May 13)
Zimbabwe export ban (February 25, 2026): Suspended exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, tightening upstream spodumene supply ahead of scheduled 2027 ban
Global EV sales +22% in 2025; energy storage lithium demand +71% in 2025
Albemarle: commercial-scale DLE output anticipated by late 2026 (potential supply swing)
Sources: INN Lithium Forecast, Carbon Credits

Key Tickers Summary

Ticker	Catalyst	Status
LIN	Helium oligopoly pricing; Texas storage cavern operational	Structural tailwind, 3–5yr duration
APD	Helium pricing power; raised FY26 EPS $13.00–$13.25	Active tailwind confirmed Q1 results
CEG	9.8 GW nuclear PPA book; +64% Q1 revenue; Pin Oak Creek live	TMI NRC decision is key binary
CCJ	$90/lb LT price; $2.6B India deal; record uncovered requirements	Spot softening but LT book strong
UEC	Burke Hollow production commenced; dual ISR platform	Production catalyst confirmed
FCX	Grasberg restart slowed; guidance cut to 3.1B lbs; COMEX hit $6.71	Near-term supply headwind vs. 2027–29 recovery
SCCO	Tía María permit reinstated; capex +39% YoY Q1	Project optionality unlocked
SMR	TVA PPA expected year-end; $25B gov funding backstop	Highly speculative; execution risk
NUCL	NRC accepted KRONOS MMR Construction Permit Application May 20	First microreactor to reach this milestone

Energy & Critical Minerals: Uranium, Helium, Copper, Nuclear PPAs — May 2026 Forcing Functions

Energy & Critical Minerals: Uranium, Helium, Copper, Nuclear PPAs — May 2026 Forcing Functions

Uranium

Price Action

Key Catalysts

Helium Supply Crisis (Ras Laffan)

The Forcing Function

Price Impact

Restart Timeline (as of late May 2026)

LIN / APD Positioning

Copper

FCX / Grasberg

SCCO / Southern Copper

Nuclear / SMR — Hyperscaler Power Purchase Agreements

Aggregate Pipeline

Key Deals

CEG (Constellation Energy) — Q1 2026 Earnings (May 11)

NuScale (SMR) — TVA Catalyst

Nano Nuclear Energy (NUCL) — Licensing Milestone (May 20, 2026)

Grid Power / Electricity Pricing

Lithium / EV Battery Supply Chain

Key Tickers Summary

Provenance