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Cameco (CCJ)

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Cameco (CCJ)

One-line summary: Largest Western uranium miner; primary listed uranium exposure in nuclear-baseload-for-ai-data-centers thesis — Q1 2026 beat ($845M revenue, $509M EBITDA) and landmark $2.6B India deal for 22M lbs (2027–2035) validate the multi-year contracting story.

What it is

Cameco Corporation (NYSE: CCJ, TSX: CCO) is a Canadian uranium producer and one of the world's largest. Principal assets: McArthur River/Key Lake (Saskatchewan, Canada — world's largest high-grade uranium mine, 70% owned); Cigar Lake (Saskatchewan, 50% owned); Inkai (Kazakhstan JV). Also owns 49% of Westinghouse Electric Company (nuclear services/fuel). Uranium is sold as U3O8 concentrate (uranium ore concentrate) under long-term fixed and market-related price contracts.

Why it matters to stock-market

CCJ is the primary listed vehicle for uranium demand driven by nuclear power expansion and hyperscaler PPAs. As AI data centers drive nuclear PPA demand (see nuclear-baseload-for-ai-data-centers), more reactors must be fueled — uranium volumes under long-term contracts directly benefit CCJ. Stock +105% YoY as of May 2026.

Valuation (August 26, 2026)

Last: $107.36 at the Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT close (+0.40 / +0.37%). From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-ceg-pwr-ccj-etn.

Gage's judgment (as of ~9:22 ET 2026-08-27)

Gage last: $107.34. 18–24 months (slower). Upside: about 25% ($135) if term uranium keeps climbing toward three digits and utilities re-contract. Downside: about 25% ($80) if utilities keep delaying replacement-rate contracts and term/spot rolls over. What would change it: long-term uranium price breaks down from the mid-$90s, the India book or Westinghouse/DOE definitive agreements slip, or a supply surprise closes the deficit. Gage's judgment, not issuer fact. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-ceg-pwr-ccj-etn.

Key facts

Q1 2026 earnings (reported May 5, 2026):

  • Revenue: $845M (uranium segment + Westinghouse equity income)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $509M
  • Net earnings: $131M (+87% YoY); EPS $0.34 (beat $0.31 consensus by 9.7%)
  • Uranium sales volume: 7.8M lbs (+13% YoY); average realized prices up; unit costs down
  • Westinghouse equity income contribution alongside uranium segment strength

Urenco USA expansion (June 2026): Urenco USA (the only US uranium enrichment facility, New Mexico) announced a ~50% capacity expansion — the largest enrichment capacity increase in decades. Directly benefits CCJ as uranium enrichment demand scales. Per 2026-06-03-energy-critical-minerals-macro-bucket-june-3-2026.

India deal (signed March 2, 2026):

  • Counterparty: Government of India, Department of Atomic Energy
  • Volume: 22 million pounds U3O8 over 9 years
  • Total value: ~$2.6 billion at market-related pricing
  • Deliveries: 2027–2035
  • Context: Announced alongside Canadian PM Carney's India state visit; part of Canada-India strategic energy partnership

$80B Westinghouse federal reactor-buildout partnership (from 2026-05-28-autoresearch-energy-critical-minerals-may-28):

  • A strategic partnership between Cameco, Brookfield, Westinghouse, and the US Government (announced October 2025, reaffirmed in Cameco's Q1 2026 filings).
  • The US Government will arrange financing and facilitate permitting for new Westinghouse reactors in the US, with aggregate investment value of at least $80 billion.
  • Categorically different from a single utility PPA — a federal commitment to a domestic reactor buildout pipeline. Cameco's 49% Westinghouse stake makes CCJ a direct beneficiary of both the reactor-build orders and the downstream fuel demand. CCJ shares jumped 5% on the framing.
  • Note: this source reports CCJ Q1 uranium revenue $712M (+15% YoY) and the EPS $0.34 as a ~30% beat vs. a $0.26 consensus — versus the $845M total revenue / "$0.31 consensus (9.7% beat)" figures above (from 2026-05-20-autoresearch-nuclear-uranium-meta-ppa-ccj-ceg-smr-may-2026). The difference reflects uranium-segment-only vs. total (incl. Westinghouse equity income) cuts and differing consensus baskets; both are retained rather than reconciled.

Uranium spot price:

  • $85.20/lb as of May 28, 2026 (-2.07% past month; +18.91% YoY) — 2-month low; speculative momentum from January $101.41/lb peak has bled off
  • Long-term contract price: $90/lb — highest since 2008, sustained from Q1; prior $85.25/lb (May 18)

CCJ stock: ~$112.70 (+2.07%, May 29); prior reference ~$104.89. CCJ president: "the forward demand that has yet to come to the market has never been bigger." India deal ($2.6B, 22M lbs) moves into delivery phase starting 2027.

June 2026 update:

  • Analyst EPS growth projection: 55% FY2026 earnings growth consensus. CCJ contract ceilings $140–150/lb vs. current ~$86 spot demonstrate industry expectation of substantial price appreciation. Offers "more stability and diversification" vs. pure development plays (NXE, DNN). From 2026-06-08-autoresearch-uranium-nuclear-market-june-2026.
  • Structural uranium deficit context: Global demand ~204M lbs/yr vs. primary production ~173M lbs = 31M lb annual deficit; Kazatomprom cut removed a further ~8M lbs. CCJ's multi-year contracted book means the company captures pricing power as term prices reset. From 2026-06-08-autoresearch-uranium-nuclear-market-june-2026.
  • Primary-source Q1 2026 call (reported 2026-05-05). grant-isaac (President & COO): FY2026 guidance reaffirmed (19.5–21.5 Mlb U3O8); "long-term contracting levels remain below replacement rates" — 70% of 2025 contracts market-related with floors mid-$70s / ceilings mid-$150s; the India contract (blocked ~5 yrs) is resolved on market terms at delivery (2027 catalyst); GLE targets 4–5 Mlb/yr via tails re-enrichment (TRL 6); the DOC binding term sheet commits to a minimum $80B AP1000 spend with Westinghouse (US-build leg below the uranium exposure). From 2026-05-05-earnings-ccj-q1-2026.

Q2 2026 earnings (reported 2026-07-31):

  • EPS miss (adjusted $0.1268 vs $0.28 est; revenue $573.46M vs $592.27M) — the miss driven by the absence of a large Westinghouse/Dukovany contribution and temporary operational disruptions — yet shares rose ~4.3% pre-market to ~$92. The load-bearing reason the tape looked through the miss: the long-term uranium price strengthened to decade highs (mid-$90s, "on its way to three digits likely") on very little demand.
  • grant-isaac in 2026-07-31-earnings-ccj-q2-fy2026: "We still don't have utilities coming forward and collectively buying at a volume that replaces what they consume under existing contracts. Yet we found ourselves back into a mid-'90s long-term uranium price on its way to three digits likely." And: "This is really super constructive for the uranium space that on very little demand that underlying long-term price continues to go up."
  • Contract structure: market-related floors now high-$70s escalated, ceilings $160 escalated (up from the mid-$70s floor / mid-$150s ceiling reported at Q1) — grant-isaac in 2026-07-31-earnings-ccj-q2-fy2026. Five-year contract coverage: avg annual deliveries exceeding 28M lbs/yr.
  • Production outlook held at 19.5–21.5 Mlb U3O8 despite Q2 disruptions — tim-gitzel flagged spring road conditions hitting Key Lake / McArthur River, and Cigar Lake production suspended for a couple of weeks post-quarter-end. Cost guidance raised primarily on FX on purchases, not operational inflation.
  • Westinghouse AP1000 pipeline: 91 global opportunities identified (twin-pack CAD $14–17B; ~9–10 yr build). Next catalyst = progression to definitive agreements with specific US utilities + the DOE — dominic-kieran in 2026-07-31-earnings-ccj-q2-fy2026: "the next step that you should be looking for is news from us about progressing to definitive agreements, which will involve obviously specific utilities in the U.S. as well as the Department of Energy."

Related

Sources

Referenced by
Mechanisms
AI capex sprint → power-supply gap → grid-component + materials bottleneck → nuclear/copper/transformer beneficiary cascadeAI DC load growth → PJM capacity auction 10× → nuclear baseload structural premium → CEG/CCJ/UEC benefitKazatomprom 10% cut + Niger nationalization → 31M lb structural deficit → $90/lb term repricing → Western mine developers (NXE, DNN, UUUU, CCJ) capture marginQatar Ras Laffan helium halt → SK Hynix 6-month inventory cliff → HBM production constraint → Micron structural pricing premium
Concepts
Nuclear as the only viable AI data center baseload
Entities
Denison Mines (DNN)NexGen Energy (NXE)Uranium Energy Corp