Forward Guidance: The Portfolio Built To Survive Every Crash | Jared Dillian

Sourced by podcast-ingest on 2026-08-14. Auto-transcribed via AssemblyAI (universal-2, en). Speakers identified by AssemblyAI Speaker Identification using the per-podcast host/regulars hints; the resulting label→name mapping is in the frontmatter. Duration: 32m. Episode page: (not provided). Audio: https://traffic.megaphone.fm/BWG3604561581.mp3.

Show notes (from RSS)

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.

This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.

We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 The Awesome Portfolio

04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk

11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift

14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data

17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting

20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight

22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun

27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold

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EVENTS

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DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Transcript

Jack Farley: Nothing said on Ford Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. All right, what's going on, everybody? Welcome back to another episode of Ford Guidance and excited to be joined today by Jared Dillon, editor of the Daily Dirt Nap and a regular guest of the show. Jared, always great to have you on the show. What's going on?

Jared Dillian: Today's black T shirt day, I'm happy to announce.

Jack Farley: Yeah, in the heat of the summer, what's better than just wearing a black T shirt apparently? Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Jared Dillian: Awesome.

Jack Farley: Well, look, yeah, always, always great to have you on the show. I think the last time you joined were with your, with your man Tony Greer. And at my side was Quinn. But yeah, just a one on one today, which will be great. And yeah, I know that you have a new book coming out your, your seventh book. And so, yeah, feel free to tell us what, what's it about, when's it coming out and why'd you write it?

Jared Dillian: Okay, so the book is called the awesome Portfolio and It comes out September 8th. You can pre order it now. Best place to pre order it is Amazon.

Jack Farley: Typically.

Jared Dillian: I was back. This was like seven years ago. I was doing some tinkering with portfolios. And you know, I started with stocks and I started with stocks and bonds. I started with like a 6040 portfolio and then I started adding stuff to it. I was like, I added gold to it, which brought down the volatility considerably. And I added cash to it, which brought down the volatility considerably. And I kept tinkering with it and I came up with this portfolio that was 20%, stocks, bonds, gold, cash and real estate. And what I found was this thing had the highest Sharpe ratio of any linear combination of asset classes I could come up with. Like just. It has a huge sharp. So since 1971. And the reason I picked 1971 is that's when. That's the first time you could hold gold. Basically since 1971, it has returned just about exactly 9% a year.

Jack Farley: Okay.

Jared Dillian: In the sharp, I want to say is like 0.6 or something like that. And it has half the volatility of an 8020 portfolio. And this is the really remarkable thing in terms of drawdowns. Your worst drawdown ever with this portfolio was down 12%. And that was in 2022. The second worst was down 9%, which was the financial crisis. Was only down 9%. In the financial crisis, the third, fourth and fifth biggest drawdowns were 1% down 1%. So you have this thing which gives you about half the Volatility of the stock market has minimal drawdowns, returns 9% a year. Now the stock market since 1971 has returned 11% a year. Okay, so you're giving up 2% in terms of performance, but your volatility is just smushed, the drawdowns disappear and you have this portfolio that you don't have to look at it ever, right? If you have this thing, you know the worst you can do is 12% in a year. There's no reason to look at your phone, there's no reason to worry about it. Like if the conventional wisdom on investing is you just buy an index fund and, and you dollar cost average and you hold it forever. Well, you know, the s and P500 was down 57% from 2007 to 2009. Like if you had a million bucks and you ended up with 430,000, you are crapping your pants like you're miserable, right? So in those situations, 90% of people are going to puke. Like they're just going to, they're just going to liquidate the lows and then they're going to stop compounding. Or let's say you're in the 10% that doesn't puke. You're going to be, you're literally going to be miserable for years until you get back to the high water mark.

Jack Farley: Right?

Jared Dillian: So what I'm offering with this portfolio is literally just happiness, something you just give up a little way in terms, a little bit in terms of performance. It's really not that much. And you have this thing that basically grows in a straight line for years and years and years.

Jack Farley: So. Okay, I guess my first simple question is to understand the incentive structures of why pretty much every RIA offers and recommends a 6040 portfolio or an 8020 if you're young or something like that, as opposed to something like this if it has a better risk adjusted return. Like is it behavioral? Is it the fact that 20% of isn't in cash and they don't collect fees on cash? Or like what, what do you think is the reason why? You know, there, there's beautiful simplicity here and I'm just curious why you think that that doesn't get embraced.

Jared Dillian: I think there's a few reasons. One, I think just a lot of people don't know about it, and that's the point of the book, is to educate people about it. I think most people don't know. I also think that 20% gold sounds scary to people. You know, most people say, you know, to the Extent that you have any gold at all, it should be like 3% or 5% or. Gold is scary. It's volatile. It's this, you know, very scary thing. Like you don't want to hold too much of it. I mean, to me, 60 or 80% stocks I think is kind of scary. Like, that scares me. Like, I don't know why it doesn't scare most people. So I think that's part of it. And I think the cash part of it, like Most people say 20% cash is way too much, right? Like why it's a drag on performance. You know, the one thing I'll say about this is back in the late 1970s, early 1980s, when, you know, you could get a money market fund for 14, 15%, that was actually the best performing asset in the awesome portfolio. So, I mean, right now cash is giving you 4, 4.5%. It's really not that bad. And it dampens the volatility in the portfolio. Also, cash is an opportunity to buy something cheaper in the future, right? So if you have a million dollars and 200 grand of it is in cash and you go on a vacation to Fort Lauderdale and you get a real estate agent and you're looking at condos and you find your dream condo, you can just put down the down payment. It's. Cash is an option. It's an option to buy something. Right? Like, that's why I like having a lot of cash around. I think 20% is perfect. So.

Jack Farley: So yeah, as you mentioned, you've. You've been talking and developed this, this style portfolio for, for quite a few years now. I'm curious about why, why now for actually releasing the book? Like, is it about where we are in terms of, you know, obviously since, I don't know, 2021 bonds have, you know, kind of sucked, which has really, you know, been detrimental to the 6040 portfolio. And you know, you can make the argument that equities are wildly, highly, like richly valued. Is it some sort of perspective on where we're at and, you know, how the past few years have gone that made you write it or what do you think?

Jared Dillian: Well, actually, I think the timing is not ideal for this book. I would really like to be releasing this book when the stock market is crashing. Like, then I think there would be a much stronger argument for it because, look, with the exception of 2022, which was not that bad of a bear market and the pandemic and maybe 2011, 2012, the market's been going up for 18 years, you know, and so, like, there is no compelling reason to invest in the awesome portfolio when you're making 11% plus maybe 15% over the last 18 years and you say, I don't see what the problem is. Like, what's the problem? Like, like, why is, why is the stock market so scary? I write for Reason magazine in my spare time. I'm like a freelancer. I write articles for them. And I was doing an article about something recently. I was talking with my editor about index funds, and she's like, well, you could go into something safe like an index fund. And it hit me that people really think that index funds are the safe, conservative alternative. It's the s and P500. It's got a volume of 16. It moves around 1% a day. In 1929, you had an 89% drawdown. Right? Like, there's nothing safe about the stock market. But since it's gone up for 18 years, everybody thinks it's actually conservative, you know?

Jack Farley: Yeah, yeah, 100%. Well said. All right, so, yeah, as you mentioned, this is like your seventh book. You've been writing finance books for a while. Um, I don't know, it feels like almost. I, I know you're a big sentiment guy, so maybe there's a contrarian perspective here, but look like we're in the age of AI AI slop AI writing. There's, you know, fint has an attention span of a goldfish. And you're still, still writing finance books. And I'm curious, like, what's your perspective on that industry these days? And like, what, what drives you to, to continue to, to write these books when, you know, seems like everybody's trying to go towards short form content, basically?

Jared Dillian: Well, the interesting thing about the publishing industry is that books are getting shorter. Okay. You know, my first book in 2011 was 135,000 words. The awesome portfolio is 50,000 words. Like most, you know, the average book I would say 10, 20 years ago was about 85,000 words. That's gone down to about 75 or 70. Attention spans are getting shorter. People are publishing shorter books. You know, I. And the other thing I'll say is, you know, I only have really two financial books, maybe three if you count Street Freak. This is a short story collection that I've written. I have two essay collections. I've done a lot of, you know, I actually haven't. I only have two finance books. Basically like that. No worries. But yeah, I mean, to be an author today is really hard because it is just a pain in the ass to get people to read books. Yeah, like it really is. I mean, like, even for me, like, I have a library in my house. I have like this sheepskin chair. It's like my reading chair. And I have a stack of books like a foot high that I want to read that I haven't gotten to because I'm busy and everybody's busy. And the reality is we're not busy. We're just spending all our time scrolling Twitter. Right. Which is not a good use of our time, you know.

Jack Farley: Yeah, 100%. I'm in the seven in the exact same boat. Yeah, interesting. All right, well look, we'll have the weather link in the description here, September 8th, go pre order it. And yeah, should be great. And yeah, we'd love to chat about markets and what's going on there. Talk about the Fed. Kevin Warsh meeting last week was illuminating to say the least, especially his press conference. What's your perspective on the Fed right now and this pivotal shift that seems to be happening?

Jared Dillian: So I think the conventional wisdom around the Fed meeting is that Warsh made a mistake. It was a loss of Fed credibility. The bond market isn't behaving. The long end is cratering. I had the complete opposite view. I think this was completely intentional, 100% intentional. I think that if Warsh, I think Warsh knew the curve would steepen a lot if he kept rates the same. Right. I 100% believe that Warsh has said

Jack Farley: all along

Jared Dillian: that he wants to reduce the role of the Fed in monetary policy and let markets take care of it. So he says, okay, screw it, we're not going to do anything with rates and we'll see what the market does. And he knew what the market would do. It just trashed the long end. The long end got obliterated. And that actually is the monetary policy he was looking for. Like, if he hiked rates, the curve would have flattened, which actually would have been stimulative. Right. Mortgage rates would have come down and it would have been good for the economy. This had the opposite effect. It had an immediate tightening effect. Like, you know, long term rates went up, 10 year rates went up, mortgage rates went up. And it has an immediate tightening effect. So it actually tightens monetary policy. It also has the added benefit of getting Trump off his back about the Fed funds, because I don't think Trump is sophisticated enough to understand the dynamics of the yield curve. I think all Trump cares about is the optics of Fed funds. And also I've seen some stuff recently. Gosh, there's this Guy Ed Bradford on Twitter, full cube.

Jack Farley: Oh yeah, he's great. Yeah.

Jared Dillian: And he posted this quote from a Fed official and he like whited it out like who it came from. But basically the objective of this is to lower short term rates. Right. Like he's tightening with the long end of the yield curve so that in the future he can lower short term rates. Like if you wanted to be long a steepener right now, I, I mean, I think the curve's going to steepen for the next six to 12 months. You know, I think that's what it's going to look like. So I think, I think you'll see Fed funds come down to three and you know, I think the long end stays pretty high.

Jack Farley: So yeah, I agree with a lot of that. So the style that, that steepening, I'm curious, like do you, do you see, obviously the 30 year was the talk of the town and that really sold off and you know, yields are hitting, you know, took out, took out the highs and the yields from 2022, do you see that as sort of peeking out and most of the steepening coming from say the two year yield coming lower? I think it.

Jared Dillian: No, I think it's both. I think it's both. And you know what's funny is, you know, bonds got to 530, you know, I think they're 518 right now as we're talking. So there's actually been a little bit of a rally in the long end. 10 to bond yields have come down. I mean, look like I'm very confused about a lot of things. The stock market has just gone bananas over the last three or four days. I think part of that is what I would call Leopold technicals. Right?

Jack Farley: Yeah. Right.

Jared Dillian: So basically the cleanup off of him puking his portfolio. So I think, I think part of it is the bounce from that. I think part of it is another taco out of Trump with the Iran war. I mean we got, you know, we've had a lot of weak data which nobody is talking about. The last payroll number was bad, CPI was soft, PPI was soft, PCE was soft. We just got a soft jolts number today. Like I would say the data going back about a month has really not been strong at all, you know, so. And people have said to me, look like if you take AI out of gdp, GDP is actually negative. Right. I don't know if that's true. I've never done the numbers on that, but that's what people have told me. So, you know, we'll see.

Jack Farley: Yeah. I think, I mean even in that vein, like yeah, yeah, we did get the GDP data last week and there's a lot of, I don't know, next net exports whipsawing. But you know, it was relatively strong. The cons, the consumer numbers, but that's also like wildly lagging versus some of the other points that you mentioned that are a bit more forward looking or are trending lower at a moment where yeah, like obviously we didn't get the hike at this past meeting, but the market's still pricing in at least a 50% odds of a hike in September. Do you see that happening or do you think that with the long end doing this tightening right now and some of this data starting to roll over that by the time we get to September we might not need that hike?

Jared Dillian: I think both, first of all, I don't think Warsh is going to hike, period.

Jack Farley: Right.

Jared Dillian: Okay. No matter what the data is, I don't think wars is going to hike. But also I do think the data is going to cooperate, you know, so I'm positioned that way. You know, I'm long sofer and twos. So like I'm positioned that way. But yeah, I mean I, you know, right now, the last time I looked, I looked at the warp screen on Bloomberg and we still have 1.7 hikes priced in out to June of next year. I say the number is zero, you know, or negative. Right. Like I, I think it's going away.

Jack Farley: So what else do you think is the role of trying to steepen the curve other than obviously like if it flattens along and comes lower, that's somewhat stimulative. But do you, do you see it contributing to other roles? One being obviously a steep yield curve is great for banks to, you know, in terms of their, their nimble. I think about that and this idea of, okay, if Warsh and the Fed is trying to get out of the game of being the marginal provider of liquidity and moving that towards commercial banks to be more free on lending? That paired with this idea of deregulation, do you think those are important components to look at here for where the marginal liquidity is coming into the market?

Jared Dillian: I mean that is another thing. It is good for banks.

Jack Farley: And

Jared Dillian: you know, if you look at the chart of xlf, it's on the highs, JP Morgan is on the highs, all the big banks are on the highs. And my experience is it's kind of hard for the whole market to sell off if banks are strong. Like I can't really think of an instance where You've had a significant correction in stocks where banks are on the highs. You know, they're usually pretty correlated. I really just think. I just think there's just profound philosophical differences between Warsh and Powell and Yellen and Bernanke and Greenspan and pretty much any other Fed chair going back to Volcker, you know, or before then, like, like Warsh, I mean, look like he wants fewer FOMC meetings. Like, I don't know how many he wants. Like, right now we have eight, so maybe we go to six or four. Like, he just wants a diminished role of the Fed in monetary policy and for the market to do all the heavy lifting. Right. So basically what he's. He's saying explicitly, kind of what we knew all along, because we've always kind of known that the Fed was the tail and the market was the dog. You know, like, we would price in a Fed move, and then the Fed inevitably would do what the market says. Like, wars just said that explicitly. Right? So that's, you know, that's the. I would say the first couple of weeks he was Fed chair, that was the adjustment we had to make. But, you know, the market will get used to it little. It'll be fine.

Jack Farley: So what do you think about the role and function of. Of treasury here? Obviously, you know, Besson was rooting for wars to get in. They've known each other a long time. And it's. It seems quite interesting that on the back of last week's Fed meeting, we also got this outright yen intervention. I think the first outright explicit move from the treasury in something like 30 years. They sold euros and were closely aligned with the boj. It feels like that might be a concerted effort with monetary authorities or how do you think about that? And just the general function of treasury in light of a less active Fed?

Jared Dillian: You know, I, I wish I knew the answer to that question. I literally like you. I haven't thought about it till you asked it. The yen is, is cheap, right? I mean, just, just on a purchasing power parity basis, the end is cheap. I have my stupid nephews going to Japan to buy Pokemon cards and, like, eating dinner for four for like 30 bucks. Like, it's cheap. I mean, the dollar is very strong. Like, even. Even down 10% from last spring. Like, the dollar is still very strong. Dennis Gartman used to say that intervening against your currency always works, but intervening on behalf of your currency never does, because inevitably you have these FX reserves and you're spending them to support your currency, and eventually you run out of reserves and you're screwed right now. I mean, Japan has copious reserves and now treasury is jumping in. But you know, I had a, I had a friend who actually passed away. He was a very smart markets guy and he worked in China for a number of years and Japan and his long term view was that dollar yen was going to 250. Ultimately, I don't, I kind of don't see that happening because like I said, like, it's already very cheap. And Besson, you know, has a history of making money on FX interventions, right. He made money in Argentina, right. Like bought the peso, sold the peso, made a few billion dollars. Right. Like he'll probably do the same thing in Japan. I have some people emailing me saying, you know, when should we short yen? How about 155? And I'm like, Ah, gosh, I don't know. Like, I don't know if that's a good idea.

Jack Farley: I just feel like being on the other side of a guy who like is a pro at FX interventions is a bad thing to do.

Jared Dillian: I don't know.

Jack Farley: That's a, that's a bold one.

Jared Dillian: Yeah. So, I mean I, I don't think I answered your original question which was about the role of treasury here, but that's my thoughts on it. So.

Jack Farley: No, I think, yeah, I think there's a couple of pieces that you can, that you can pull from that for sure. All right. I want to circle back on what you talked about about this, this Leopold thing and I want to get your pulse check as a, as a sentiment reader and trader on how you think about moments like that. Like obviously you had just all this froth and, and bubble like behavior in, in the memory trade. Everybody was trying to, you know, the fact that the last 13F that came out from Leopold, everybody was just spam refreshing. Trying to copy trade him was obviously a clear signal and then sud you get a fun with the target on their back and you know, they got carried out. And I'm curious, how do you think about that framework? Like, is it just a mean reversion play like you mentioned once, once they get taken out of the market or. Yeah, how do you think about all of that?

Jared Dillian: It's a mean reversion play. Also situational awareness, I think is the canary in the whole trade. Like they're the most leveraged player. They got taken out first.

Jack Farley: First.

Jared Dillian: But kind of like, you know, I was trading during the financial crisis. I was at Lehman. Like I, I specifically remember this day, February 27, 2007 was kind of like the starting gun for the financial crisis. It was the day that the ABX, the subprime index, gapped lower 10 points. And it was also the same day that China raised reserve requirements. Right. So in a very sleepy stock market, the S and p was down 4% in the day and the VIX doubled. Right. So that ultimately, ultimately the S and P went on to make new highs in the summer of 07. But that was kind of the starting gun, you know, and that's kind of the way I view this. The price action. The day the Fed meeting was like, basically where the market crashed like a hundred something handles into the close. That was very unusual. And that was obviously because of the liquidation. But I just, I, I look at it as the starting gun in a bear market. That's really the way I look at it.

Jack Farley: So interesting. I feel like one thing people are trying to figure out is, okay, you know, if there's this fund that got up to 45 billion, I think nav. Highly levered. When you look at all these, these tickers that they were in, suddenly the question comes forth of was, was most of this movement and price action just, you know, one big fund over levered with a little bit of retail kind of following along at the last moment? Like now that they're taken out. Yeah. Like, is there any sort of marginal buyer left here? What do you think about that?

Jared Dillian: I don't know the answer to that question. You know, looking at the price action of the S and P the last three days, it feels like more than a bounce. It feels like real money coming in just in terms of the price action. There's no pullbacks. There's. You're not even getting like a tiny pullback in stocks intraday. Like, it's literally just motoring higher, which usually means you're getting inflows, you know, which might mean that people think that, you know, the, the worst has passed or whatever. I mean, keep in mind, like, I don't really pay attention to tech. Like on my Bloomberg launch pad, you know, I have a security monitor, I have a bunch of charts. Most of the time I'm not even paying attention to what tech is doing. The only thing, the only, the only reason I know what tech is doing is because I have the NASDAQ up there. But I don't, like, I don't, I don't watch Micron, I don't watch SanDisk, I don't watch any of this crap. So it, so it all kind of took me by surprise. So

Jack Farley: how do you. How do you think about the average retail trader at the moment? Like, they just obviously got rinsed on all those trades you mentioned. And, you know, you look at some of the market structure, people like, I know Citadel has a bunch of that, like Scott Rener. They're talking about how. Yeah, it seems like obviously they were. They were buying like mad in the last few months and then all got rinsed. What's, what's your read on the average retail trader in the market right now?

Jared Dillian: I think they are indefatigable. That would be the word I would use. They, I mean, look like, you know, I wonder this a lot. Like, is there a drawdown? Like, is there a size of a drawdown that disabuses people of the notion that stocks always go up? Like, how much of a drawdown do you need to take before people capitulate? Like, I don't think people capitulated here, even with the drawdowns. You had memory and tech and some of that other stuff, like the. The belief that stocks continuously go up is still. Is still persistent. So.

Jack Farley: Mm. What. What equity sectors are you excited about right now?

Jared Dillian: I. I'm not sure I'm excited about any sectors, actually. I'm bearish on financials. Just with looking at technicals, I think. I think financials are topping. Could be wrong. Healthcare has looked good for a while. Staples look good. And if you like staples in healthcare, then you're generally negative on everything else.

Jack Farley: Else.

Jared Dillian: I liquidated pretty much all my energy positions in the last couple of weeks, which. And what I found was that, you know, in my newsletter, like, I liquidated these positions and there was a lot of complaining. People really, really believe in energy. And there was a lot of bitching when I sold these names. And, you know, here we are a week or two later and oil is like eight or nine bucks lower. And. And, you know, if this really is the end of the war, it's going back to 60 or 65. So. So.

Jack Farley: So was that mostly a reflection of a view on how this war plays out or is it more so just that the run was done and regardless of how the, how things net out with. With Trump and Iran, you know, the trade was done or what?

Jared Dillian: Yes, the latter. The latter. Yeah. I mean, that was. That was basically just looking at charts. You know, I kind of wish, you know, when oil got up to 120 or at least above 100, that was. That was really the time to sell and I didn't. And we got a second opportunity when oil ran up to about 90, and that's. That's when I sold, so.

Jack Farley: Gotcha. All right, Last major sector I wanted to get your read on is gold and the precious metals, which obviously had. It feels almost like that whole memory complex is going through right now. What happened in gold and precious metals from, like, January until the last couple months. And I'm curious what your read is on there. Obviously, you know, back in January, you saw people lined up outside of places to buy physical gold, and that was a pretty, pretty clear top. But I'm Chris, how do you think about that space right now?

Jared Dillian: Yeah, I like it. I like the tentacles. I think we're. We're bottoming and we're basing without getting into too much geeky technical stuff. I think we need a lit. One more tiny test below 4000 before we complete the base. But I think we're very close to the end of the bottom here. And I think if you get above 4250 in gold, then you're. I mean, then it's blue sky and you're. It's a blue sky breakout and you're going to get back to the highs at some point. So I am bullish. If you're trying to trade it tactically, what you want to see is, I mean, ideally like a small cut below 4,000 in a recovery and then a move above 4,250. That's what you would want to see. So cool.

Jack Farley: Awesome. All right, well, look, Jared, always good to. Great to have you on the show. Appreciate the. The roundup and how you're thinking about markets and. Yeah, super excited to give the book a read once it's out in September. And yeah, well, we'll have the link into the description. Appreciate you joining again.

Jared Dillian: Thanks. Great talking to you. I appreciate it.

Jack Farley: Nothing said on for guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. This podcast is for informational purposes only and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not. Not financial advice or necessarily the views of Blockworks. Our hosts, guests and the Blockworks team may hold positions in the company's funds or projects discussed. As always, investments in blockchain technology involve risk. Terms and conditions apply. Do your own research.