Jared Dillian
Editor of The Daily Dirtnap · Author of The Awesome Portfolio
aka Daily Dirtnap
“I think this was completely intentional, 100% intentional. I think that if Warsh, I think Warsh knew the curve would steepen a lot if he kept rates the same.”
“The long end got obliterated. And that actually is the monetary policy he was looking for... long term rates went up, 10 year rates went up, mortgage rates went up. And it has an immediate tightening effect.”
“if you wanted to be long a steepener right now, I, I mean, I think the curve's going to steepen for the next six to 12 months... I think you'll see Fed funds come down to three and you know, I think the long end stays pretty high.”
“The stock market has just gone bananas over the last three or four days. I think part of that is what I would call Leopold technicals... basically the cleanup off of him puking his portfolio.”
Jared Dillian
One-line summary: Editor of The Daily Dirtnap; tracked here for a Warsh-Fed steepener read (intentional long-end tightening) and the 'Leopold technicals' bounce diagnosis.
What they're known for
Editor of The Daily Dirtnap; former Lehman trader; author of The Awesome Portfolio (20/20/20/20/20 stocks/bonds/gold/cash/real-estate). Interviewed on Forward Guidance for a Warsh-Fed / risk-management read. From 2026-08-05-podcast-forward-guidance-the-portfolio-built-to-survive-every-crash-jared.
Why they matter to stock-market
His SCOPE-relevant claim is the Warsh intentional-steepener read: holding the funds rate trashes the long end on purpose (tightening via mortgages), with Fed funds eventually to ~3% while the long end stays high. Portfolio-construction advice (Awesome Portfolio, gold/oil/defensives) is out of scope.
Said
Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"I think this was completely intentional, 100% intentional. I think that if Warsh, I think Warsh knew the curve would steepen a lot if he kept rates the same." — 2026-08-05-podcast-forward-guidance-the-portfolio-built-to-survive-every-crash-jared (2026-08-05)
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"The long end got obliterated. And that actually is the monetary policy he was looking for... long term rates went up, 10 year rates went up, mortgage rates went up. And it has an immediate tightening effect." — 2026-08-05-podcast-forward-guidance-the-portfolio-built-to-survive-every-crash-jared (2026-08-05)
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On warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate:
"if you wanted to be long a steepener right now, I, I mean, I think the curve's going to steepen for the next six to 12 months... I think you'll see Fed funds come down to three and you know, I think the long end stays pretty high." — 2026-08-05-podcast-forward-guidance-the-portfolio-built-to-survive-every-crash-jared (2026-08-05)
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On ai-roi-reckoning:
"The stock market has just gone bananas over the last three or four days. I think part of that is what I would call Leopold technicals... basically the cleanup off of him puking his portfolio." — 2026-08-05-podcast-forward-guidance-the-portfolio-built-to-survive-every-crash-jared (2026-08-05)