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SPCX NASA Crew-13 pre-event — Oct 1 Falcon 9 / Dragon to ISS

Pre-event brief for held SPCX ahead of NASA Crew-13 (Falcon 9/Dragon to ISS): current NET/time, scrub/slip history, materiality vs ops noise.

Source

SPCX NASA Crew-13 pre-event — Oct 1 Falcon 9 / Dragon to ISS

Generated by Grok Bot research on 2026-09-24. WebSearch + fetch ladder. Native X skipped (Paul's X API at monthly spend cap). Treat as raw material — review before promoting.

Summary

NASA and SpaceX are targeting Thursday, October 1, 2026, 11:10 a.m. EDT as the earliest Crew-13 launch opportunity from SLC-40, Cape Canaveral, Falcon 9 / Dragon to the ISS, with docking ~8 p.m. EDT the same day if Oct 1 holds. A secondary (Starlust, citing SpaceX/NASA messaging) also lists a Friday, October 2, 10:47 a.m. EDT backup; the SpaceX mission page is a JS SPA and was not retrieved as usable prose this pass — treat the backup as secondary-corroborated, not issuer-HTML-verified. Crew-13 already slipped once: original target Sept 12 came off the table after an Aug 29 NASA notice of an oxidizer leak on Dragon’s propulsion system; teams later reported an oxidizer valve replacement; NASA’s Sept 22 blog set the firm Oct 1 / 11:10 a.m. EDT target. For the held SPCX paper, a routine successful crew rotation is classified as ops noise (not an earnings event); materiality would require an anomaly/abort, crew-safety event, or NASA contract-implications path — no buy/sell/size.

Findings

Current launch date and time

  • Primary (NASA, retrieved): NASA, SpaceX Move to Final Crew-13 Prelaunch Prep for Oct. 1 Liftoff (Sept 22, 2026; also listed on NASA Crew-13 blog index): targeting 11:10 a.m. EDT, Thursday, Oct. 1 as the earliest opportunity; SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS; docking planned ~8 p.m. same day to Harmony forward port if Oct 1 flies; crew travels to Kennedy Sat Sept 26.
  • Corroborating secondaries (retrieved): Space.com, Sept 23 — Oct 1 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 GMT), ISS arrival ~9 hours later; TeslaNorth, Sept 23; FOX 35 Orlando, Sept 23; Space Coast Daily, Sept 23.
  • Backup window (secondary, not issuer-HTML): Starlust states backup Friday, October 2, at 10:47 a.m. EDT. WebSearch highlights of SpaceX Crew-13 match that backup; WebFetch/curl of the SpaceX page returned only the Angular SPA shell — do not treat issuer HTML as retrieved for the backup time.
  • Crew (NASA): Jessica Watkins (commander), Luke Delaney (pilot), CSA Joshua Kutryk, Roscosmos Sergey Teteryatnikov — become Expedition 75 after docking (NASA Sept 22 post; May 1 assignments).
  • Not covered here: TSLA Roadster; Sep 24 SPCX lockup (already vaulted); Starship Flight 14 (already vaulted in PR #273).

Scrub / slip history for Crew-13 so far

  • Original NET: May 1 NASA assignments said launch no earlier than mid-September (NASA commercial crew, May 1). Secondaries (Space.com, TeslaNorth, Starlust) state the firmed target before the leak was Sept 12.
  • Aug 29 slip cause (NASA, retrieved): NASA, SpaceX Adjust Crew-13 Launch Date — adjusting the date to address an oxidizer leak on Dragon’s propulsion system detected during standard prelaunch processing; additional tests/data review/rework; “a new target date will be announced once available.”
  • Mid-September status: NASA, SpaceX Continue Crew-13 Prep as Crew Enters Quarantine (Sept 17) — quarantine entered; still targeting early October (no firm clock yet).
  • Valve repair (secondary quoting NASA/SpaceX social): FOX 35 cites a Sept 16 social post: team successfully replaced an oxidizer valve after the leak. Treat as attributed secondary of social copy, not a fetched X permalink (X skipped this pass).
  • Firm re-target: NASA Sept 22 blog (above) — Oct 1 / 11:10 a.m. EDT earliest.
  • Launch-day scrub so far: None found for the Oct 1 attempt as of research date (Sept 24) — the attempt has not yet occurred. Pre-attempt schedule slip = oxidizer leak → Sept 12 off → early-Oct goal → Oct 1 firm.
  • Prior Crew-N base rates (easy pass only; not comprehensive): Documented weather / technical delays recur on the Commercial Crew line (e.g. Crew-1 weather + Merlin issues; Crew-12 weather corridor; Crew-10 transporter-erector hydraulics scrub — see Provenance). No defensible overall scrub-rate % computed this pass; do not invent one.

Materiality for SPCX (ops noise vs material) — research classification only

Call: ops noise for a routine successful Crew-13 flight; not an earnings event.

  • Mechanism: Commercial Crew ISS rotations are recurring SpaceX operations under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. In SPCX disclosures already vaulted, Space is a reportable segment (Q2 2026 Space revenue $962 million, operating loss $(542) million) that includes customer launches; vault pages do not break out a separate “Crew-N / commercial crew” revenue line per mission (spacex entity from prior Q2 10-Q / 8-K ingest). A single on-time crew rotation does not, by itself, restate segment dollars, backlog, or the Connectivity-vs-Starship-absorption prior. It is not a scheduled earnings print.
  • What would change the call (still not a trade): (1) Launch anomaly / abort / pad contingency with hardware loss or multi-month Dragon grounding; (2) crew-safety event; (3) NASA contract implications (schedule/performance review, further CC mods) that change disclosed backlog or Space-segment narrative. Those paths are material-watch, not the base case for a nominal Oct 1 / Oct 2 attempt.
  • Explicit non-calls: No buy / sell / size. No paper add/trim. Gage owns trade judgment. Do not invent last-price or sleeve mark for this event.

Commercial crew in SpaceX / SPCX disclosures (context only)

  • Vault Q2 2026 print (already ingested): Space segment $962M revenue / $(542)M op. income — customer launches + launch-and-development; internal Starlink launches capitalized with no inter-segment launch revenue. No fetched Crew-13-specific dollar in that print.
  • Public secondary color (not vaulted as fact): SpaceNews / Benzinga-class reporting earlier in 2026 on additional CC mission awards (e.g. Benzinga May 2026 on more crew missions / ~$287M-per-mission Teslarati estimate) — not re-fetched as load-bearing for Oct 1 materiality; contract value ≠ same-day revenue. Prefer issuer 10-Q / 8-K for dollars.

Contradictions and open questions

  • Benzinga Oct 1 piece: Gage asked to start from a Benzinga article on Crew-13’s Oct 1 target. WebSearch did not surface a Benzinga URL specifically on the Oct 1 retarget (older Benzinga Crew-10/crew-award pieces exist). Gap noted; NASA + Space.com + TeslaNorth + FOX35 + Starlust used instead.
  • SpaceX issuer page HTML: spacex.com/launches/crew13 not retrieved as prose (SPA). Backup Oct 2 / 10:47 a.m. EDT rests on Starlust + search highlights of the SpaceX page — open until issuer HTML/API is retrieved.
  • Original Sept 12 clock: NASA Aug 29 post does not itself restate “Sept 12”; that specific prior date is secondary-stated (Space.com / TeslaNorth / Starlust). Prefer NASA for cause; secondaries for the prior calendar day.
  • X skipped: No official @SpaceX / @Space_Station permalinks cited this pass (spend cap). Secondaries quote those posts; do not invent status IDs.
  • Prior Crew-N scrub %: Not computed; anecdotal only.

Provenance

Method: Grok Bot / WebSearch / fetch ladder (WebFetch + curl + NASA RSS). Native X skipped (monthly spend cap).
Generated: 2026-09-24
Rounds: 3 of 3 (R1 NASA/SpaceX/Benzinga survey; R2 scrub history + secondaries; R3 materiality + CC disclosure + backup window)
URLs fetched: NASA Crew-13 RSS/index + three NASA posts (via feed bodies); Space.com; TeslaNorth; FOX35; Space Coast Daily; Starlust. SpaceX crew13 page attempted (SPA shell only). Benzinga Oct 1 target: not found.
Fetch notes: NASA article HTML pages are JS-heavy; usable body taken from Crew-13 RSS feed + index excerpts. SpaceX SPA not climbed to browser (Playwright browsers not installed this pass).

Web sources:

X sources:

  • none found (native X skipped — monthly spend cap). Secondaries quote @SpaceX / @Space_Station; permalinks not verified this pass.

Grokipedia:

  • not used
Referenced by
Entities
SpaceX