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SpaceX

Notes

SpaceX

One-line summary: Listed June 12, 2026 as SPCX; Q2 2026 printed $7,814 million revenue (+92% YoY) with Connectivity the only profitable segment against AI/Starship absorption, NightDesk/Leo last $147.76 Mon 2026-09-14 ~9:36 AM ET (prior vault last $139.63 / $1.90T Aug 26), and a 424B4 lockup that is a dated three-pool calendar — see spacex-lockup-calendar.

What it is

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is a US-listed launch, satellite-broadband, and AI-infrastructure company (Nasdaq + Nasdaq Texas: SPCX), headquartered at 1 Rocket Road, Starbase, Texas, with three reportable segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.

Orbital data centers are not a fetched P&L line. The 10-Q says the company allocates significant launch capacity to Connectivity and expects to allocate a significant amount to AI in the future. The older reusable-rocket → Starlink → orbital-DC narrative remains on terrestrial-power-flat-to-orbital-dc-arbitrage; do not invent an orbital-DC dollar from this print. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.

Why it matters to stock-market

The latest fetched print (Q2 2026, posted Aug 4) is a Connectivity cash engine ($4,291 million revenue / $1,656 million operating income) against AI and Starship absorption (AI op. loss $1,257 million; Space op. loss $542 million; Q2 capex $18,369 million, of which AI $15,828 million) and a still-triple-digit forward earnings multiple on a ~$1.9T mark. The lockup is not a 180-day cliff: the first contractual eligibility date was the earnings-tied 20% (up to 911.5 million) on Aug 6, not the 70-day (Aug 20). That is a supply-calendar input, not a buy/sell. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.

Public proxy is SPCX as of June 12, 2026. Index-add status lives on spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic (still open). The September 2026 Nasdaq-100 quarterly rebalance is a post-inclusion float-reweight pulse, not another Fast Entry event. Sep 11 announce / Sep 21 effective stay methodology-mapped and GIW-timing-consistent, not IR-confirmed (September IR results page still 404 as of 2026-09-14). Newer signal is Bloomberg-syndicated Nasdaq GIW daily pro forma ~1.28%→~2.82% (indicative; final later this month); prior desk/JPM ~1.25%→~1.51% / ~$12.4B is superseded attributed secondary — do not invent a new $ flow from the Δweight. From 2026-09-14-research-spcx-ndx-rebalance-sep12-refresh.

Valuation (September 14, 2026)

Last: SPCX $147.76 as of Monday 2026-09-14 ~9:36 AM ET (NightDesk / Leo; down ~2.2% today). Last only — do not invent OHLC, close, after-hours, or a restamped market cap. Prior vault last was $139.63 / $1.90T at the Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT stockanalysis close.

Paul's directed-ticket cost on the directed 10: $149.63. Position context only — not Gage judgment, not a thesis resize.

Fetched stockanalysis mark (not invented; prior vault last, Aug 26): SPCX $139.63 at the Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT close (+1.68 / +1.22%); after-hours $140.24 as of 6:20 PM EDT. Market cap $1.90T; EV $1.83T. Forward PE 106.33; P/S 81.27; float 595.41 million; short 34.90% of float; 52-week $104.83–$225.64; IPO $135. Same-session history table prints Aug 26 close $139.54 — scrape discrepancy; prefer the overview "At close" $139.63. Multiples are stockanalysis-computed, not SpaceX-disclosed. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.

Path color (history, not a thesis): Aug 5 close $108.27 (−13.61% on the print session); Aug 6 $114.92; Aug 20 $134.00. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.

Gage's judgment (as of 2026-09-14)

Gage, 14 Sep 2026, via Leo. Hold the directed 10. No add into Sep 21 rebalance / Sep 24 day-105 unlock week. GIW ~1.28%→~2.82% is the working map (indicative; final later); old JPM ~1.51% is superseded as the working map — grain status already set on the 2026-09-14 refresh, do not change it here. Demand pulse may already be partly in the tape; Sep 24 ~328M unlock is supply. Next checkpoints: final NDX weight print, then post–Sep 24 digest. No new upside/downside sleeve from this event alone — still Paul's directed ticket, not a thesis resize. Gage's judgment, not grain / not issuer fact. Last-price as-of stays the vault last: $147.76 (Monday 2026-09-14 ~9:36 AM ET, NightDesk / Leo). Not a buy/sell/size. Not a paper sleeve. No source URL for the judgment — do not invent one. No BotBoard card.

Key facts

  • Ticker: SPCX (Nasdaq Global Select + Nasdaq Texas). Cover outstanding as of 2026-07-28: 7,696,293,669 Class A + 5,485,486,276 Class B. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print (10-Q cover); also 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-post-ipo-index-inclusion.
  • Q2 2026 print (period ended 30 June 2026; earnings posted 4 August after the close). Total revenue $7,814 million (+92% from $4,071 million). Space $962 million / Connectivity $4,291 million / AI $2,561 million. Segment operating income: Space $(542) million / Connectivity $1,656 million / AI $(1,257) million / total $(143) million. GAAP NI $(541) million / diluted EPS $(0.09). Adjusted EBITDA $3,538 million (non-GAAP). Cost of revenue $3,495 million → computed GAAP GM 55.3% (not a labeled company line). Q2 capex $18,369 million (AI $15,828 million). H1 operating cash flow $3,466 million; H1 PP&E purchases $(28,476) million. No company-labeled quarterly FCF — do not invent one. Cash + marketable securities $100,009 million (10-Q $93,522 + $6,487; 8-K "$100 billion"). Backlog $47,461 million (8-K "$47.5 billion"); deferred revenue $14,286 million. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print (8-K Ex. 99.1 + Form 10-Q). The Aug 7 clip's 24/7 Wall St $7.81B / +92% is corroborated by this issuer print — do not treat that secondary as the print.
  • Connectivity / Starlink. 12.0 million subscribers / ARPU $66; consumer $2,485 million + enterprise & government $1,806 million. Ex. 99.1: Starshield "over $6 billion" multi-year US government contracts. Only segment with Q2 operating profit. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • Space / Starship. Q2: 10 customer / 28 internal / 38 total launches; H1 78 launches / 1,041 metric tons. Starship V3 Flight 12 (May) and Flight 13 (July, subsequent) in Ex. 99.1. Company claim that Starship "will reduce the cost to orbit by 99% or more relative to the historical average" is first-party. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • AI / compute. Nameplate compute 1.4 GW (installed GPU × all-in power; not utilization). Cloud Services Agreements $14.1 billion contracted sales (Ex. 99.1 Note 2: non-cancellable enforceable period only) with $1.6 billion incremental Q2 AI infrastructure revenue. 10-Q: after the initial ramp, CSAs "may be terminated by either party upon 90 days' notice" — tension with the $14.1B headline; record, do not flatten. Advertising $367 million in Q2. Grok 4.5 released in July (subsequent). From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • 2026-08-27 — colossus clocks and campus MW (424(b)(4) + Epoch; do not flatten units). Same June 11, 2026 424(b)(4): Colossus 1 first cluster ~100,000 H100 / ~130 MW in 122 days (repurposed Electrolux shell); Colossus II ~110,000 GB200 / ~210 MW in 91 days then 110,000 GB300 / 220 MW in 64 days; combined ~1.0 GW of "compute power" (issuer term). SpaceX's own peer line: ~2 years for a 100 MW greenfield. NVIDIA Oct 28, 2024 independently clocks the first 100k-Hopper cluster at 122 days / 19 days first-rack-to-training. Epoch (sat Jun 15, 2026): Colossus 1 340 MW IT / ~230k chips; Colossus 2 946 MW IT / 440k chips; first Colossus 2 cluster dated Oct 19, 2025 (Wikipedia ~Jan 2026 left open). Issuer ~1.0 GW compute power ≠ Epoch 1,286 MW IT ≠ unfetched Introl 2 GW / 555k. Google CSA FWP (Jun 5, 2026): ~110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, $920M/month Oct 2026–Jun 2029; delivery gate Sep 30, 2026; facility not named. See colossus, colossus-cluster-clocks, energized-vs-announced-campus-mw. From 2026-08-27-xai-data-center-build-tempo-vs-peers-and-ai-campus-capacity.
  • Cursor. Ex. 99.1 (Aug 4) announced a $60 billion agreement, expected Q3 close. 8-K 2026-08-14: merger effective that day; 389,289,254 Class A for outstanding Cursor common/preferred at $60.0 billion implied equity / 7-day VWAP. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • xAI merger. Completed February 2, 2026; X had been acquired into xAI on March 28, 2025. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • $25 billion notes. Closed June 26, 2026. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • Lockup calendar (424B4 primary). Three pools from the prospectus / listing date June 12, not the June 15 close. Dated table and share counts live on spacex-lockup-calendar. First eligibility after listing: Aug 6 = second full trading day after the Aug 4 after-close Q2 print = up to 911.5 million (earnings-tied 20%, ex-affiliates) — not the 70-day (Aug 20 / 319.0 million). Performance +10% (455.8 million / $175.50 for 5 of 10 days) did not fire. Musk: June 12, 2027, up to 6.4 billion, no early release. Extended pool + Musk: 7.8 billion / ~60%. No fetched 8-K confirms actual selling. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-lockup-calendar-and-q2-2026-print.
  • 2026-08-26 — listing confirmed (issuer + 10-Q). SpaceX IR (2026-06-15): Class A began trading June 12, 2026 on Nasdaq Global Select and Nasdaq Texas as SPCX; offering closed June 15; 638,888,888 shares including full overallotment (83,333,333 greenshoe); “approximately $85.7 billion” gross. 10-Q: 638.9 million shares at $135.00; net $85,675 million after $575 million costs. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-post-ipo-index-inclusion.
  • 2026-08-26 — realized IPO float (refined, not flattened). 424B4: new investors 4.2% of Class A+B on the base 555,555,555-share deal; ~4.9% if greenshoe fully exercised (it was). Do not treat later lockup releases as IPO float. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-post-ipo-index-inclusion.
  • 2026-08-26 — index adds (do not flatten). FTSE Russell notice 2621018 (2026-06-12): added to Russell 1000, Russell Top 200, and Russell Small Cap Completeness after the close June 26, 2026. Motley Fool (2026-07-07): Nasdaq-100 added July 7. ProcureAM via Newsfile (2026-06-17): UFO added SPCX at 6.17% as of June 16. Motley Fool (2026-07-06): CRSP US Total Market added June 18 (trade-press only). S&P Total Market add unconfirmed. Day 10 still open. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-post-ipo-index-inclusion.
  • 2026-09-09 — NDX September quarterly rebalance (pre-announcement; not Nasdaq results). Methodology maps announce after close Fri Sep 11 and effective open Mon Sep 21; those street dates stay provisional until a September 2026 Nasdaq IR/GIW results release (none found as of this pass). June IR precedent: announced 2026-06-11, effective Mon 2026-06-22. Low-float weighting uses Modified Market Cap (lesser of listed TSO or 3× free-float shares); float updates at quarterly reviews only; Nasdaq does not anticipate future lock-ups in float until they have occurred. Desk/secondary copy (JPM/Min Moon via Briefs; HTX reprint) cites ~1.25% → ~1.51% and ~$12.4B (HTX also an unreconciled ~$15.5B line) — attributed estimates only, not Nasdaq-verified. Morningstar ~1.3% July 7 Fast Entry weight is a pre-unlock baseline, not confirmation of 1.25%/1.51%. June IR tracked AUM >$800B vs desk-attributed ~$1.7T end-Q2 — do not flatten. Not a buy/sell/size. From 2026-09-09-research-spcx-n100-rebalance-sep-2026. 2026-09-14: this desk path is superseded attributed secondary — prefer the GIW-cited pro forma on the next bullet; do not reuse $12.4B against the new Δweight.
  • 2026-09-14 — NDX September quarterly rebalance refresh (GIW-cited pro forma; still not IR results). Bloomberg syndications (Yahoo / Business Times / The Star) cite a late-Fri Sep 11 Nasdaq GIW daily pro forma path: SPCX NDX weight expected to rise to about 2.82% from roughly 1.28%, with final weighting later this month. Raw GIW SPCX row was not retrieved (login wall); Bloomberg.com body robot-blocked this pass. Methodology still maps announce Fri Sep 11 AC / effective Mon Sep 21 open; IR September quarterly-changes page still 404 as of 2026-09-14 — treat those dates as methodology/GIW-timing-consistent, not IR-confirmed. GIW Daily Pro Forma is indicative / subject to change. Syndicated copy says “billions” of passive buying only — no primary $ figure. Prior JPM/Min Moon via Briefs ~1.25%→~1.51% / ~$12.4B stays superseded attributed secondary; do not multiply the new ~+1.54 pp Δweight by ~$1.7T AUM. QQQ cited ~$481B; ~$1.7T NDX-tracking AUM is syndication-quoted Nasdaq, not re-fetched. Not a buy/sell/size. From 2026-09-14-research-spcx-ndx-rebalance-sep12-refresh.
  • S-1 financials (FY2025, historical). $18.67B consolidated revenue; $4.94B net loss. Starlink segment: $11.387B revenue, $4.423B operating income, $7.168B EBITDA. From 2026-05-21-autoresearch-spacex-ipo-s1-index-inclusion-may-2026.
  • Governance (S-1). Musk holds 12.3% common + 93.6% Class B (10 votes/share) = 85.1% voting control. From 2026-05-21-autoresearch-spacex-ipo-s1-index-inclusion-may-2026.
  • S&P 500. June 8 mega-cap exceptions did not pass (S&P DJI 2026-06-04). Trade-press still says June 2027 at earliest. From 2026-08-26-autoresearch-spacex-post-ipo-index-inclusion.
  • First public-company print (2026-08-04, Compound same-day relay — ⚠ not the call transcript). josh-brown in 2026-08-04-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-midsummer-s-melt-up-robinhood-spacex-and-palantir: Connectivity/Starlink $4.29B vs $3.83B expected, operating income $1.66B; AI $2.56B vs $2.18B, lost "$1.25 billion"; Space operating loss $542M. Issuer 8-K/10-Q now confirms those three segment dollars. michael-batnick relays Elon: exclusive Nvidia Vera Rubin. Short-interest color then: 34% short interest as % of float — stockanalysis 34.90% as of this pass.
  • 2026-08-26 — Patel: SpaceX as lessor to the two labs. dylan-patel in 2026-08-25-podcast-dwarkesh-podcast-dylan-patel-anthropic-openai-will-have-most-of: SpaceX is "building a ton of compute" and "actively going to lease quite a bit of it to Anthropic and OpenAI." Attach to elon-web-services-to-spacex-hyperscaler-rerate; status stays hypothesis.
  • 2026-09-15 — Terafab restated (crawl-walk-run) + Starship Flight 14 then catch 15. elon-musk in 2026-09-15-all-in-elon-musk-gwynne-shotwell-terafab-starship: R&D fab at Austin Giga Texas for Tesla+SpaceX; equipment on order; "something useful by end of next year, not at scale." gwynne-shotwell: crawl/walk/run; packaging already. Starship Flight 14 then catch Flight 15. Attach to us-fab-capacity-bottleneck / intel-18a-yield-vs-tsmc — not a named HVM wafer start. Do not mint a net-new AI-infra chain.
  • 2026-09-22 — Starship Flight 14 pre-event brief (NET Sep 28; pending regulatory). Issuer page + official X: first planned orbital Starship after 13 suborbital tests; first planned operational Starlink V3 deploy (26 sats). NET slipped Sep 22 → Sep 28. Sleeve confirm/break = orbit insert / 26-sat deploy / further slip. Not N-100 / lockup / IPO. No last-price. Gage Flight 14 mark empty — none invented. Full checklist under Starship Flight 14. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • 2026-09-24 — NASA Crew-13 pre-event brief (Oct 1 Falcon 9 / Dragon ISS). NASA targeting Thu Oct 1, 2026, 11:10 a.m. EDT from SLC-40; docking ~8 p.m. EDT same day if Oct 1 holds. Backup Fri Oct 2, 10:47 a.m. EDT is secondary (Starlust; SpaceX mission page SPA-shell only this pass). Prior slip: oxidizer leak (NASA Aug 29) off a secondary-stated Sept 12 target; oxidizer-valve replace is attributed secondary of social copy (FOX 35), not a fetched X permalink. Routine success = ops noise; material-watch = anomaly / crew-safety / NASA contract path. Not Roadster / lockup / Flight 14 / N-100. No last-price. Not a buy/sell/size. Full checklist under NASA Crew-13. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • IPO LIVE (pre-listing terms, superseded on share count / close): Roadshow opens June 4, pricing June 11, Nasdaq June 12 as SPCX. Fixed price $135/share. From 2026-06-03-spacex-spcx-ipo-roadshow-opens-june-4-demand-signals-float.
  • Lock-up structure (pre-listing, now superseded as the calendar). Staggered/phased release; Musk 366-day with no early-release. From 2026-05-27-autoresearch-spacex-ipo. Use spacex-lockup-calendar for dates and share counts.
  • Secondary market 106-cent premium + Altimeter selling signal. kelly-rodriguez / brad-gerstner in 2026-06-07-podcast-all-in-podcast-inside-the-private-stock-market-boom-spacex.
  • Most venture-scale upside already captured privately. will-marshall / david-friedberg in 2026-06-06-podcast-all-in-podcast-the-ipo-comeback-why-tech-giants-are-finally.
  • ECM-desk teardown. rupert-mitchell in 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer: day-one placement ~$86B; lockup "reads like a sieve." The 424B4 now dates that sieve — it does not make it a buy/sell.

Strengths (from a thesis-input perspective)

Weaknesses (from a thesis-input perspective)

Starship Flight 14 — NET Sep 28, 2026 pre-event brief

Operational / schedule event for the already-held directed 10, not a change to the Q2 Connectivity-vs-Starship-absorption prior, the lockup calendar, or the NDX rebalance map on this page. Does not update Q2 dollars, lockup share counts, or GIW ~1.28%→~2.82%. Does not open or rewrite spacex-lockup-calendar, spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic, or spacex-ipo-post-listing-entry-timing. Event-path checklists below are facts only, not marks. Gage Flight 14 mark empty — none invented. Not a trade. No buy/sell/size. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.

  • NET (issuer + official X): Monday, September 28, 2026, window 08:15–09:30 ET (75 minutes; opens 7:15 a.m. CT), still pending regulatory approval. SpaceX Starship Flight 14. Official X @SpaceX Sep 17, 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval" (quotes prior Sep 22 target). No later official NET change found after Sep 17 through the research date (Sep 22). Stale secondaries still showing Sep 22 are superseded — prefer issuer. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Orbital first (issuer): First planned send of Starship into Earth orbit after 13 passively safe suborbital tests. Planned profile: ~275 km, ~six orbits, nearly 10-hour flight; ship splashdown Pacific west of Chile; Super Heavy offshore landing burn in the Gulf of America. Orbit burn only after flight control confirms sufficient redundancy on hardware critical to the later deorbit burn — a healthy-coast gate before "full orbital." From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Ship objectives (issuer): first orbital insertion maneuver; deploy 26 Starlink V3; single-Raptor deorbit burn; controlled reentry/descent/splashdown. Timeline: orbital insertion burn ~T+25:19–25:38; payload deploy ~T+34:09 to ~T+1:04:41; deorbit ~T+8:52; landing ~T+9:50. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • V3 payload (issuer): first planned constellation deploy of Starlink V3; 26 sats; each claimed 1 Tbps (~26 Tbps mission total; ~10× a Falcon 9 V2 mini launch per SpaceX). Post-deploy: unfold, RF+laser contact, orbit-raise; customer service "as soon as a few weeks after launch" after checkout. Three sats carry cameras to image the heatshield. Flight 13's 20 V3 were a suborbital path, not operational constellation insert (Aviation Week). From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Booster / pad: launch, ascent, separation, boostback, landing burn at an offshore Gulf point; hardware/software changes after Flight 13 ice-clog / incomplete landing-burn relight (3 center engines ice; 8 of 13 engines on the landing-burn attempt). @SpaceX Sep 21, 2026: "Booster 21 moved to the pad at Starbase." From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Regulatory (still pending): SpaceX page and Sep 17 X both keep "pending regulatory approval." FAA Boca Chica Starship page marks Complete Final Tiered EA + FONSI/ROD for Pacific reentry contingency + additional landing trajectory — supports license modification pathways; not by itself a Flight 14 go. Prior FAA Current Operations Plan listed Sep 22 primary / Sep 23 backup airspace (superseded NET). A search-pointed NOTAM-style reservation named Starship FTL-14 with primary re-entry 28 Sep 2026 and backups through 4 Oct — planning airspace, not proof the vehicle-operator license is closed. NOTAM URL was not fully retrieved in-round. Residual slip risk into Sep 28 remains material (already one unexplained ~6-day move). From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Event-path checklist (confirm — facts, not a mark): (1) Ship executes planned orbital insertion (~T+25 min single-Raptor circularization) and sustains the multi-orbit coast (~six orbits / ~10 h) rather than remaining on the passively safe suborbital path. (2) Payload deploy window completes; 26 Starlink V3 released; RF/laser contact and orbit-raise begin. (3) Liftoff inside the Sep 28 08:15–09:30 ET window (or same-day recycle) with regulatory clearance in hand. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Event-path checklist (break / soft miss — facts, not a mark): flight control withholds the orbit burn (redundancy gate fails) or insertion fails / early deorbit; no orbit → no operational LEO insert of the 26, or partial deploy / checkout fail; further NET past Sep 28, scrub, or continued "pending regulatory approval" without a cleared attempt. Booster Gulf hard-splash or incomplete burn is secondary to the orbital thesis but is a stated booster objective. Orbit insert and 26-sat deploy are linked but separately checkable. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • This brief does not cover: Nasdaq-100 rebalance / methodology / attributed flow (already vaulted; do not redo PRs #210 / #232 / #144); lockup / day-105 / IPO sizing / paper add-trim; buy/sell/size on the held 10. Encyclopedia is never a source. No last-price in this clip — do not invent one. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.

NASA Crew-13 — Oct 1, 2026 Falcon 9 / Dragon ISS pre-event brief

Operational / schedule event for the already-held directed 10, not a change to the Q2 Connectivity-vs-Starship-absorption prior, the lockup calendar, or the NDX rebalance map on this page. Does not update Q2 dollars, lockup share counts, or GIW ~1.28%→~2.82%. Does not open or rewrite spacex-lockup-calendar, spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic, or spacex-ipo-post-listing-entry-timing. Does not redo Starship Flight 14. Event-path checklists below are facts only, not marks. A routine successful crew rotation is classified as ops noise (not an earnings event) — research classification only. Not a trade. No buy/sell/size. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.

  • Primary target (NASA, retrieved): Thursday, October 1, 2026, 11:10 a.m. EDT, earliest opportunity from SLC-40, Cape Canaveral SFS; Falcon 9 / Dragon to the ISS; docking planned ~8 p.m. EDT the same day to Harmony forward port if Oct 1 flies; crew travels to Kennedy Sat Sept 26. NASA, SpaceX Move to Final Crew-13 Prelaunch Prep for Oct. 1 Liftoff (Sept 22, 2026); also listed on NASA Crew-13 blog index. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Corroborating secondaries (retrieved): Space.com, Sept 23 — Oct 1 11:10 a.m. EDT (1510 GMT), ISS arrival ~9 hours later; TeslaNorth, Sept 23; FOX 35 Orlando, Sept 23; Space Coast Daily, Sept 23. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Backup window (secondary, not issuer-HTML): Starlust states backup Friday, October 2, at 10:47 a.m. EDT. WebSearch highlights of SpaceX Crew-13 match that backup; WebFetch/curl of the SpaceX page returned only the Angular SPA shell — do not treat issuer HTML as retrieved for the backup time. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Crew (NASA): Jessica Watkins (commander), Luke Delaney (pilot), CSA Joshua Kutryk, Roscosmos Sergey Teteryatnikov — become Expedition 75 after docking (NASA Sept 22; May 1 assignments). From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Slip history: Original NET: May 1 NASA assignments said launch no earlier than mid-September (NASA commercial crew, May 1). Secondaries (Space.com, TeslaNorth, Starlust) state the firmed target before the leak was Sept 12 — NASA Aug 29 does not itself restate “Sept 12”; prefer NASA for cause, secondaries for the prior calendar day. NASA Aug 29 — oxidizer leak on Dragon’s propulsion system during standard prelaunch processing. NASA Sept 17 — quarantine; still targeting early October (no firm clock yet). Valve repair is FOX 35 citing a Sept 16 social post (oxidizer valve replaced) — attributed secondary of social copy, not a fetched X permalink (native X skipped this pass). Firm re-target: NASA Sept 22 — Oct 1 / 11:10 a.m. EDT earliest. Launch-day scrub for the Oct 1 attempt: none found as of research date (Sept 24) — the attempt has not yet occurred. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Materiality (research classification only): Call: ops noise for a routine successful Crew-13 flight; not an earnings event. Commercial Crew ISS rotations are recurring SpaceX operations. Vaulted Q2 2026 Space segment is $962 million revenue / operating loss $(542) million and includes customer launches; this page does not break out a separate “Crew-N / commercial crew” revenue line per mission. A single on-time crew rotation does not, by itself, restate segment dollars, backlog, or the Connectivity-vs-Starship-absorption prior. What would change the call (still not a trade): (1) launch anomaly / abort / pad contingency with hardware loss or multi-month Dragon grounding; (2) crew-safety event; (3) NASA contract implications (schedule/performance review, further CC mods) that change disclosed backlog or Space-segment narrative. Those paths are material-watch, not the base case for a nominal Oct 1 / Oct 2 attempt. No buy / sell / size. No paper add/trim. No invented last-price. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Event-path checklist (confirm — facts, not a mark): (1) Liftoff inside the Oct 1 11:10 a.m. EDT window from SLC-40. (2) Docking ~8 p.m. EDT same day to Harmony forward port if Oct 1 flies. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Event-path checklist (slip / backup — facts, not a mark): Oct 1 does not fly; next cited opportunity is Friday, October 2, 10:47 a.m. EDT on Starlust + search highlights of the SpaceX page — not issuer-HTML-verified (SPA shell only). Further slip past Oct 2, or a launch-day scrub of the first attempt, remains open. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • Event-path checklist (material-watch / break — facts, not a mark): anomaly / abort / pad contingency with hardware loss or multi-month Dragon grounding; crew-safety event; NASA contract-implications path that changes disclosed backlog or Space-segment narrative. Those are material-watch, not the base case. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.
  • This brief does not cover: TSLA Roadster; Sep 24 SPCX lockup (already vaulted); Starship Flight 14 (already on this page); Nasdaq-100 rebalance / methodology / attributed flow; lockup / day-105 / IPO sizing / paper add-trim; buy/sell/size on the held 10. Encyclopedia is never a source. Native X skipped (spend cap) — no invented permalinks. Benzinga Oct 1 retarget URL was not found this pass. No last-price in this clip — do not invent one. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.

Open questions

  • spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic — which indices actually added SPCX, what float each entry pulled, and whether the 5/10/15-day cadence is a tradeable window. Status still open after the 2026-08-26 follow-up, the 2026-09-09 NDX quarterly-rebalance attach, and the 2026-09-14 GIW-cited pro forma refresh (Sep 11/21 still methodology-mapped / GIW-timing-consistent, not IR-confirmed; September IR page still 404).
  • spacex-ipo-post-listing-entry-timing — does SPCX pop-and-drop (entry on the dip, per Paul's prior) or do the staggered lockup + forced index buying support the price through the first 1-3 months? This page was not opened, edited, or closed.
  • How many Aug 6– / Aug 20–eligible shares actually sold? No fetched 8-K confirms a tranche sale.
  • What calendar day is the Q3 28% / 1.3 billion row?
  • Does any later amendment move lockup day counts from listing (June 12) to close (June 15)?
  • Flight 14 Sep 28: has AST issued the modification authorizing this orbital + V3 profile for the published window? SpaceX still says pending. Retrieved FAA stakeholder page shows Pacific EA/FONSI complete; no retrieved FAA "Flight 14 can proceed" statement dated after the Sep 17 slip. From 2026-09-22-spcx-starship-flight-14-pre-event-orbit-starlink-v3-deploy.
  • Crew-13 Oct 1: does NASA/SpaceX hold 11:10 a.m. EDT Oct 1, slip to the Starlust-cited Oct 2 10:47 a.m. EDT backup, or scrub further? SpaceX crew13 page was SPA-shell only this pass — backup not issuer-HTML-verified. Native X skipped. From 2026-09-24-spcx-nasa-crew-13-oct1-pre-event.

Sources

Related

Referenced by
Mechanisms
AI capex sprint → power-supply gap → grid-component + materials bottleneck → nuclear/copper/transformer beneficiary cascadeChina 230:1 shipbuilding gap → attritable autonomous naval mass → Port AlphaSpaceX IPO passive-demand shortfall → forced Mag7 selling → equal-weight S&P outperformsSpaceX placement + warehousing → dealer-balance-sheet crowding → vol/tail (weakened by the 2025 eSLR easing)Terrestrial power-flat → chip-output exponential → orbital DC arbitrage
Concepts
Colossus cluster clocks are not greenfield campus clocksEnergized vs announced campus MWIPO as comparable-valuation anchorIPO comeback → value capture shifts back to public marketsMega equity-issuance supply wave as an absorption-capacity testOperating profit per gigawattSpaceX (SPCX) lockup calendarToken-price inflation favors asset-heavy compute owners
Questions
Hypothesis: does SPCX's public mark re-rate listed space peers (RKLB, ASTS) *beyond* the transient index-arb pop?Hypothesis: does the SpaceX placement + warehousing consume scarce dealer balance sheet enough to crowd out capacity and spike volatility?Hypothesis: SpaceX (SPCX) post-listing price trajectory — pop-and-drop, or supported?SpaceX IPO: does the 5/10/15-day index inclusion cadence create a measurable passive-buying tailwind?
Entities
AnthropicAST SpaceMobile (ASTS)Brad GerstnerColossus (xAI / SpaceXAI)Dan LoebElon MuskGavin BakerJosh BrownKelly RodriguezMichael BatnickMicrosoft FairwaterPhilip JohnstonPlanet LabsRocket Lab (RKLB)Ron BaronRupert MitchellSaronicStarcloudTeslaWill Marshall