Bert A. Frost
“The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduced a significant supply shock into this already tight market. Exports of urea and ammonia from the region have been severely limited, removing a meaningful portion of low-cost supply during peak nitrogen season.”
“we expect India's urea import requirements will be substantial in 2026, potentially rising to 10 million to 12 million metric tons. This would be approximately 10% to 30% higher than 2025 and nearly double its 2024 imports.”
“Russia has also implemented export restrictions to prioritize domestic agriculture, and this week, Egypt moved to apply a $90 per metric ton duty on nitrogen fertilizer exports.”
Bert A. Frost
SVP Sales, Procurement & Distribution at CF Industries (CF). Primary source on global nitrogen supply-demand dynamics, Strait of Hormuz supply shock, and India import demand.
Said
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bert-frost in 2026-05-07-earnings-cf-q1-fy2026: "The conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz introduced a significant supply shock into this already tight market. Exports of urea and ammonia from the region have been severely limited, removing a meaningful portion of low-cost supply during peak nitrogen season."
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bert-frost in 2026-05-07-earnings-cf-q1-fy2026: "we expect India's urea import requirements will be substantial in 2026, potentially rising to 10 million to 12 million metric tons. This would be approximately 10% to 30% higher than 2025 and nearly double its 2024 imports."
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bert-frost in 2026-05-07-earnings-cf-q1-fy2026: "Russia has also implemented export restrictions to prioritize domestic agriculture, and this week, Egypt moved to apply a $90 per metric ton duty on nitrogen fertilizer exports."