Eaton Corporation

One-line summary: Electrical Americas backlog $15,175M at 6/30/26 (+33% YoY), book-to-bill 1.3, orders +41%, DC orders ~+85%; COL Group €810M EV / ~€250M 2027E sales (3.24x computed); FY26 adj EPS $13.40–$13.60; Q3 ~Nov 3 unconfirmed; fwd P/E 29.3x; US DC backlog 307 GW (Q2 call) vs Q1 prior 228 GW.

What it is

Eaton is a diversified power management company (NYSE: ETN). Electrical Americas — switchgear, distribution, and power management — is the AI-grid line. Electrical Global now includes Boyd Thermal (closed 12 March 2026). COL Group (Italian medium-voltage; signed 25 Sep 2026, expected close Q1 2027) is a pending EMEA bolt-on, not a closed print. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print and 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Why it matters to stock-market

The live print is still Q2 2026 (furnished 31 July). This page now carries the 10-Q dollar backlog (EA $15,175M, book-to-bill 1.3) and the Q2-call restatement of the DC pipeline (307 GW, only ~20% near-term) that the 8-K-only ingest left open. COL is small next to Eaton (computed ~1% of 2025 revenue on a currency-mismatched €250M / $27.4B). The Sep 25 mark is $440.00 with fwd P/E 29.26, above every 2021–2025 year-end forward P/E in the clip. No buy/hold/sell — research only. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Existing electrical / DC chains this name already sits on: datacenter-construction-electrical-picks-shovels, dc-rack-density-to-800vdc-white-space-tam, ferc-large-load-to-dc-gridscale-construction, aging-grid-replacement-to-td-capex-supercycle. This ingest does not mint a new chain.

Valuation (September 25, 2026)

Last in this clip: $440.00 at ~10:14 AM EDT, Sep 25, 2026 (intraday, not a 4:00 PM close). Market cap $170.9B; EV $191.5B. Trailing P/E 44.8; forward P/E 29.26; EV/EBITDA 28.85; Debt/EBITDA 3.07. 50-day MA $419.24; 200-day MA $386.86. Short interest 1.86% of float. Stockanalysis consensus target $479.57 (27 analysts). From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (stockanalysis ETN statistics).

Prior vault last: $419.44 at the Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT close. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-ceg-pwr-ccj-etn.

Computed (clip-labeled): $441 / $13.50 (FY26 adj EPS guide midpoint) = 32.7x FY26. Against Zacks FY27 EPS $15.83 (MarketBeat forecast), ≈ 27.9x FY27. Bases differ from the 29.26 forward P/E; do not flatten.

Own history, year-end snapshots (stockanalysis ratios)

Both current multiples are above every year-end value shown. Caveat (clip inference): trailing EBITDA includes Boyd only from Mar 12, 2026, while EV includes its acquisition debt — likely inflates trailing EV/EBITDA vs a full-year run-rate. Forward P/E is the cleaner history comparison. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Peers (stockanalysis statistics, Sep 25 intraday)

ETN's forward P/E sits between Schneider/Hubbell and Vertiv/GEV. GEV's trailing EV/EBITDA looks distorted vs its own P/E; treat as noisy. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Sell-side targets with dates (MarketBeat forecast)

MarketBeat consensus $456.50 (18 analysts; high $520, low $295). Wells: growth and revision outlook "strong and justifies an upside bias"; "never been a growth cycle like this one in multi-industry." UBS projects 2028 EPS of $19.95, 7% above consensus (Intellectia summary of notes). Computed: Wells $503 is +14.1% vs $441; stockanalysis consensus +8.7%; MarketBeat consensus +3.5%. 52-week range $311.92–$478.00; $441 is ~7.7% below the 52-week high (computed). These are dated street marks, not a call. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Gage's judgment (as of ~9:22 ET 2026-08-27) — historical, not restated

Gage last: $419.62. ~12 months. Upside: about 15% ($480) if Electrical Americas stays this strong and the raised FY26 guide holds. Downside: about 20% ($335) if data-center orders actually cooled (Q1’s 228 GW / +240% DC figures were not restated in Q2) or Boyd/debt weighs. What would change it: Electrical Americas orders/backlog roll over, DC color on the next print is clearly weaker, or the Mobility/Dana split becomes a distraction instead of a cleanup. Gage's judgment, not issuer fact. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-ceg-pwr-ccj-etn. This Sep 25 ingest does not add a new Gage call.

Key facts

• Ticker: ETN (NYSE). Commission file 000-54863; CIK 0001551182. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Form 8-K, Item 2.02).
• Q2 2026 print (quarter ended 30 June 2026; furnished 31 July 2026). Net sales $8,531M (narrative "$8.5 billion"), +21% YoY / mix 14% organic + 7% acquisitions. Diluted EPS $2.11; adjusted EPS $3.15; adjusted earnings $1,228M; net income to Eaton $821M. Segment operating profit $1,974M; segment margins 23.1%. OCF $1,127M; FCF $874M (issuer: OCF/FCF "up 23% and 22%"). Dividend $1.10 per ordinary share; diluted shares 389.5M. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1 + 10-Q R2).
• Electrical Americas (AI-grid line). Sales $3,951M (Q2 2025 $3,350M; narrative "record $4.0 billion, up 18% organically" — same-exhibit rounding). OP $1,088M (Q2 2025 $987M). Operating margin issuer-stated 27.5%, "up 190 basis points sequentially" (1,088 / 3,951 = 27.5% computed). 12-month rolling average orders +41% organically. Americas Products $1,144M / Systems $2,806M. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1 + 10-Q R21 / R9).
• EA backlog in dollars (10-Q MD&A, now fetched). EA backlog $15,175M at June 30, 2026, vs $11,377M a year earlier (+33%). Organic backlog change +33%; organic customer-order change +41% (prior year +2%). Book-to-bill 1.3 vs 1.1. Electrical Global backlog $3,602M vs $1,771M (+103%; organic +54%), book-to-bill 1.1. CEO on the call: EA backlog has grown $5B since the beginning of 2025, including +$700M sequentially in Q2. Computed from the 10-Q: EA backlog grew $3,798M YoY while EA Q2 sales were $3,951M — roughly one quarter of sales added to backlog over 12 months. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (10-Q + Q2 transcript).
• Electrical sector orders / backlog (8-K % growth — not the 10-Q dollar RPO). Electrical sector total backlog +43% YoY. Electrical Americas backlog +33% vs June 2025 (same YoY rate as the 10-Q dollar print). Electrical Global backlog +103% vs June 2025; Global 12-month orders +33% organically. Electrical book-to-bill 1.2 on a rolling twelve-month basis (8-K cover; different grain from the EA 1.3). Aerospace backlog +28% YoY; Aerospace book-to-bill 1.2. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1).
• 10-Q firm RPO (different metric). Firm remaining-performance-obligation backlog approximately $24.1 billion at 30 June 2026; ~71% targeted for delivery in the next twelve months. Only orders customers are "firmly committed" to; open electrical/OEM/distributor orders historically subject to release are excluded. Not on the 8-K cover narrative. Do not flatten onto the 8-K % backlog growth or the EA dollar backlog. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (10-Q R9 / R38).
• Data-center trend (Q2 call / Laguna — restates the unrestated Q1 priors). CFO: EA organic growth of 18% was "driven primarily by strength in data centers up about 65%." Electrical Global DC organic revenue also +65%, against an underlying market the CEO put at +23%. DC orders about +85%, DC revenue about +65% — both repeated by the CEO at Laguna; DC negotiation pipeline up more than 130% (MarketBeat Laguna recap, Sep 17). The Q2 analyst deck line "Electrical Sector data center orders are up approximately 85%… versus 2Q25" is a search snippet only; the PDF was not fetched. Content per MW: CEO said $3.4M/MW is "the right number" for modeling. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (Q2 transcript, Motley Fool transcript, Laguna recap).
• US DC backlog restated: 307 GW (Q2 call), not 228 GW. "Total U.S. data center backlog has grown to 307 GW, or 15 years of backlog at 2025 build rates, up from 12 years in our last update. Only roughly 20% of this backlog converts near term. The majority will translate to 2028 and beyond deliveries." Q1's 228 GW / +240% DC orders / 32 GW under construction stay labeled Q1 priors. Do not flatten 228 → 307 → 342. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (Q2 transcript); Q1 figures from 2026-05-28-autoresearch-datacenter-electrical-picks-shovels.
• 342 GW "announced" at Laguna may be a different measure. CEO cited 342 GW of announced data-center projects vs ~50 GW installed, cautioning that much of it "would unfold over a longer cycle rather than becoming 2027 or 2028 revenue." Unclear whether 342 GW is the 307 GW metric updated or a different definition ("backlog" vs "announced"). From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (MarketBeat Laguna recap).
• DC orders +85% vs Q1's +240%. Different quarters and possibly different scopes: +85% is described as Electrical Sector, Q2 vs 2Q25. The deceleration is real on its face; base effects unknown. No DC order $ figure — Q2 deck PDF unfetched. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Q1 2026 priors (labeled; not current facts). Total company revenue record $7.5B. Electrical Americas $3.6B / OP $922M / margins 25.6%. Electrical sector backlog +48% YoY; Electrical Americas backlog +44% vs March 2025. Book-to-bill 1.2x. Adj EPS guide $13.05–$13.50. From 2026-05-25-autoresearch-csp-capex-cycle-peak-sustained-2026 and 2026-05-28-autoresearch-datacenter-electrical-picks-shovels.
• Guidance (latest formal: Q2 release, Jul 31). No 8-K update since. FY26: organic growth 11–13%, segment margins 24.1–24.5%, GAAP EPS $10.36–$10.56, adj EPS $13.40–$13.60. Q3 26: organic growth 13.5–15.5%, segment margins 24.6–25.0%, adj EPS $3.46–$3.56 (GAAP EPS $2.77–$2.87 on the prior 8-K ingest). On the call: EA organic midpoint raised 200 bps to 15%, Electrical Global up 450 bps to a 12% midpoint, segment-margin ranges reaffirmed, Boyd FY revenue raised to $1.8B ($1.5B on Eaton's books). EDGAR submissions since Jul 31 Item 2.02 are Forms 3/4/144 only. 2025 adj EPS shown as $12.07. Q1 prior was $13.05–$13.50. Computed midpoint lift vs that prior is +$0.225 — not a Q2-page number. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1) and 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Laguna (mid-September): CEO targeting the high end — remark, not a filed update. July and August were "very strong"; Eaton is targeting the high end of existing Q3 and FY ranges. He declined 2027 guidance and called the $31B 2030 electrical revenue target "a floor." "Organic growth could achieve 12%" at Laguna is the Q2 midpoint, not a new raise. "Targeting the high end" implies ~13%, but that is a CEO remark. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (MarketBeat Laguna recap).
• Segment margins (Q2 actuals, 10-Q). EA 27.5% (Q2 25: 29.5%); Electrical Global 19.8% (20.1%); Aerospace 22.8% (22.2%); Mobility 13.0% (12.1%). EA decline: "a 470 basis point decline from higher commodity inflation, partially offset by a 260 basis point increase from higher sales." CFO EA margin bridge: Q2→Q3 +250 bps (150 price/cost, 100 output/productivity), Q3→Q4 +200–250 bps, H2 vs H1 +450–500 bps; 32% 2030 EA margin target still stands. Computed from that bridge: implied EA margin ~30.0% in Q3 and ~32.0–32.5% in Q4. ⚠ EA-specific FY margin guide 28.8–29.2% appears only in a search snippet of the unfetched Q2 deck — unverified, not a fact. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• COL Group deal (signed Sep 25, 2026). Enterprise value €810M from Oaktree's Power Opportunities strategy. "COL Group has forecasted sales of €250 million for 2027." Products: medium-voltage distribution, including SF₆-free switchgear, grid automation, and modular power systems. About 400 employees; facilities in Turin, Milan, Bergamo and Catania. Founded 1920 near Turin; four production sites (PE Hub headline/dek only). Close expected Q1 2027, "subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals." The release does not state financing, accretion/dilution, or EBITDA. Computed: €810M / €250M = 3.24x EV / 2027E sales (denominator is COL's own forecast for a year after close). Eaton itself trades at 6.38x trailing EV/sales (bases differ: forward vs TTM). Scale (computed, currency-mismatched): €250M is roughly 1% of Eaton's 2025 revenue of $27.4B; roughly 2–3% of Electrical Global's annualized Q2 sales run-rate ($2,517M × 4). The ~$923M USD figure seen in search synthesis was not retrieved from a fetched page. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (Business Wire via FinancialContent; PE Hub).
• EMEA context for COL. Q2 call: EMEA revenue +20% organically; CEO credited EMEA with an 18-month turnaround. Electrical Global organic backlog excluding Boyd +54% YoY — the capacity-constraint backdrop COL is meant to address. At Laguna the CEO said Eaton will keep doing bolt-ons, especially in electrical, but does not expect deals as large as Boyd over the next couple of years. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Boyd Thermal. Closed 12 March 2026; $9.55 billion, net of cash acquired. Reported in Electrical Global. Q2 is first full quarter post-acquisition: Electrical Global sales +44% YoY = 18% organic + 25% Boyd Thermal + 1% FX. Electrical Global sales $2,517M; OP $499M; margin 19.8%. Q2 Boyd transaction costs $1M; first-half $36M (S&A). Q2 also records $52 million withholding taxes related to funding Boyd. Boyd turns organic in Q2 2027. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1 Note 3) and 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (Laguna recap).
• Mobility Reverse Morris Trust / Dana (fact, not a thesis). Agreement to separate Mobility via Reverse Morris Trust with Dana; expected close Q1 2027; Eaton to receive ~$1.1B cash distribution; Eaton shareholders expected to own at least 50.1% of the combined company. Mobility Q2 sales $841M, OP $109M, margin 13.0%. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print (Exhibit 99.1).
• Balance sheet 30 June 2026. Cash $483M; short-term investments $212M; short-term debt $2,091M; long-term debt $18,509M. Eaton "does not intend to pursue share repurchases in 2026 due to the acquisition of Boyd Thermal." Revolver upsized to $4.0B, none outstanding at Jun 30. Q2 net interest expense $201M vs $71M a year earlier. Total assets $56,181M vs $41,251M at 31 Dec 2025; goodwill $20,229M vs $15,769M; other intangibles $12,611M vs $5,054M. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print and 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (10-Q).
• Capacity / lead times. 24 facilities ramping, 16 of them in ramp-up (Laguna). CEO: "we know the product lines where our lead times are extended." From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Strengths (from a thesis-input perspective)

• EA dollar backlog $15,175M (+33% YoY) with book-to-bill 1.3 and +$700M sequential; rolling-12M organic orders +41%. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Q2 call restates the DC book: orders ~+85%, revenue ~+65%, US DC backlog 307 GW. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• FY26 adj EPS guide $13.40–$13.60; CEO at Laguna targeting the high end of existing Q3 and FY ranges (remark, not an 8-K). From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Electrical Americas printed $3,951M / $1,088M / 27.5% — higher on all three than the Q1 prior ($3.6B / $922M / 25.6%). From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print.
• 10-Q firm RPO $24.1B with ~71% targeted in the next twelve months is a fetched dollar backlog, distinct from the 8-K % growth. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print.

Weaknesses (from a thesis-input perspective)

• Diluted EPS $2.11 vs $2.51 in Q2 2025; net income to Eaton $821M vs $982M — GAAP down YoY even as sales set a record. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print.
• Segment margins 23.1%, down 80 bps YoY (issuer). EA 27.5% vs 29.5% a year earlier (470 bps commodity inflation vs 260 bps sales offset). Q2 gross margin 33.5% vs 37.0%, including a 390 bps commodity-and-wage hit. From 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print and 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Fwd P/E 29.26 and EV/EBITDA 28.85 sit above every 2021–2025 year-end snapshot in the clip. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Only ~20% of the 307 GW converts near term; most is 2028+. 342 GW "announced" was cautioned as not mostly 2027–28 revenue. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Interest expense $201M vs $71M; 2026 buybacks suspended; Boyd still in measurement period; COL and Mobility/Dana also slated for Q1 2027. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• COL financing, accretion/dilution, and EBITDA were not disclosed. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Risks (with evidence)

• DC capex digestion / hyperscaler guidance. As of Sep 13, every one of the seven tracked AI builders (Amazon ~$220B 2026; Alphabet $195–205B with a "significant increase" flagged for 2027; Meta $130–145B; Microsoft FY27 growth; Oracle, CoreWeave, Nebius) "raised or held its guidance… None cut." Watch-points: Alphabet's Q2 was its first negative-FCF quarter since listing; Oracle's capex is partly customer-prepaid; neoclouds fund capex with debt ("the part of the buildout that can stop faster than it started"); Amazon attributed part of its raise to higher memory prices. Next update: late October. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog (Supercycle hyperscaler capex roundup, Sep 16).
• Timing risk in Eaton's own DC backlog. Only ~20% of 307 GW converts near term; 342 GW cautioned as not mostly 2027–28 revenue. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Peer sentiment. vrt fell 3.0% on Sep 24 with "no fresh company-specific negative announcement," attributed to rotation out of higher-multiple DC suppliers and higher bond yields (Quiver, Sep 24; AI-generated article, low weight). VRT trades 34% below its own consensus target. Vertiv agreed Sep 2 to acquire UtilityInnovation Group. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Input costs / tariffs. Management expects price/cost "roughly neutral" in H2 after Q2 and early-Q3 price actions. April and August price actions plus selective backlog repricing were reiterated at Laguna. Q2 IEEPA refunds <$3M ($2.8M); H2 tariff-refund impact "immaterial." From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Competition / capacity adds. 24 facilities ramping (16 in ramp-up); extended lead times acknowledged. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Leverage / integration load. Boyd $9.55B still in measurement period; Mobility/Dana RMT and COL both Q1 2027; Boyd turns organic Q2 2027. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Insider activity. MarketBeat reports sales by Heath B. Monesmith and Adam A. Wadecki in August 2026. EDGAR shows Form 4s filed Aug 5 through Sep 3 and a Form 144 on Aug 11. Form contents were not read — transaction sizes unverified. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.
• Customer concentration. No customer-concentration disclosure was found in the fetched 10-Q text. Gap. From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Dated checkpoints

Q3 print — confirm / break (baselines from 10-Q, Ex. 99.1, Q2 transcript)

From 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog.

Open questions

• Is Laguna's 342 GW "announced" the same metric as the Q2-call 307 GW "backlog", or a different definition? Do not flatten the three numbers (228 / 307 / 342).
• ⚠ Q3 date ~Nov 3, 2026 remains unconfirmed (stockanalysis estimate; eaton.com unreachable).
• ⚠ EA-specific FY margin guide 28.8–29.2% is unverified (unfetched Q2 deck snippet only).
• COL financing, accretion/dilution, COL EBITDA/margins, and a fetched USD price are still undisclosed.
• How should the 10-Q $24.1B firm RPO be read against the EA $15,175M dollar backlog and the 8-K Electrical sector +43% / Americas +33% prints? Different metrics — do not flatten.
• Customer concentration: none found in fetched 10-Q text.

Sources

• 2026-09-25-eaton-etn-col-group-deal-data-center-backlog — Grok Bot (2026-09-25). 10-Q EA backlog $15,175M / btb 1.3; Q2-call 307 GW and DC +85%/+65%; Laguna high-end remark; COL €810M / €250M 2027E (3.24x computed); Sep 25 ~$440 / fwd P/E 29.26; dated targets; Q3 ~Nov 3 unconfirmed. No buy/sell/size.
• 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-ceg-pwr-ccj-etn — Aug 26 4:00 PM EDT close $419.44; Gage last $419.62 and ~12 month judgment. Not a buy/sell/size. Stockanalysis consensus targets not copied.
• 2026-08-27-eaton-q2-2026-print — Q2 2026 8-K / Exhibit 99.1 / 10-Q notes R2, R9, R21, R38. Full 10-Q HTML and Q2 analyst deck unfetched in that ingest; 10-Q MD&A backlog dollars fetched in the Sep 25 clip.
• 2026-05-25-autoresearch-csp-capex-cycle-peak-sustained-2026
• 2026-05-28-autoresearch-datacenter-electrical-picks-shovels

Related

• datacenter-construction-electrical-picks-shovels
• dc-rack-density-to-800vdc-white-space-tam
• ferc-large-load-to-dc-gridscale-construction
• aging-grid-replacement-to-td-capex-supercycle
• csp-capex-cycle-peak-or-sustained
• gev
• vrt