Rupert Mitchell
Author of Blind Squirrel Macro (Substack) · Former Goldman Sachs / Citi equity capital markets banker (Asia)
aka Rupert
“They need to find a home on day one for $86 billion worth... that leaves 16 [and a half] billion dollars just to get to one times covered.”
“The hedge fund community writ large is going to have to warehouse this stock until this thing goes into the index... the prime broker community has never supported that kind of quantum of warehousing before.”
“The lockup agreement reads like a sieve. Essentially all of the X[/]Elon floats... is unlocked by November of this year... if you think this is some kind of opportunity to play a short squeeze, think again.”
“I think that the equal weight S&P is going to outperform the Mag 7 until this deal is fully seasoned. It's gonna take 9[-]12 months for this all to sort of equalize.”
“[On the chance of it getting really nasty for the broader market:] 15 to 20 delta, roughly... it's enough to be pretty wary. People have not got their left tail, they haven't got their downside insured right now.”
“For me, the mid curve trade into the SpaceX IPO was to short the hell out of Tesla, because all of the fanboys were going to migrate into Musk's favorite baby... [Tesla not selling off] makes me think that 1% Polymarket price on the merger is the wrong price.”
Rupert Mitchell
One-line summary: Macro strategist (Blind Squirrel Macro), ex-Goldman/Citi ECM; tracked for his SpaceX IPO supply/demand teardown and the long-RSP/short-Mag7 trade.
What they're known for
Brief factual context — fill in.
Why they matter to stock-market
Why this person's claims are tracked here — fill in.
Said
Speaker-attributed claims extracted from diarized sources. Each bullet mirrors one entry in quotes: frontmatter — keep them in sync.
-
On spacex-ipo-passive-shortfall-to-equal-weight-rerate, spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic:
"They need to find a home on day one for $86 billion worth... that leaves 16 [and a half] billion dollars just to get to one times covered." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
-
On spacex-ipo-passive-shortfall-to-equal-weight-rerate:
"The hedge fund community writ large is going to have to warehouse this stock until this thing goes into the index... the prime broker community has never supported that kind of quantum of warehousing before." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
-
On spacex-ipo-post-listing-entry-timing, spacex-ipo-passive-shortfall-to-equal-weight-rerate:
"The lockup agreement reads like a sieve. Essentially all of the X[/]Elon floats... is unlocked by November of this year... if you think this is some kind of opportunity to play a short squeeze, think again." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
-
On spacex-ipo-passive-shortfall-to-equal-weight-rerate:
"I think that the equal weight S&P is going to outperform the Mag 7 until this deal is fully seasoned. It's gonna take 9[-]12 months for this all to sort of equalize." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
-
On spacex-ipo-passive-shortfall-to-equal-weight-rerate:
"[On the chance of it getting really nasty for the broader market:] 15 to 20 delta, roughly... it's enough to be pretty wary. People have not got their left tail, they haven't got their downside insured right now." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
-
On spacex:
"For me, the mid curve trade into the SpaceX IPO was to short the hell out of Tesla, because all of the fanboys were going to migrate into Musk's favorite baby... [Tesla not selling off] makes me think that 1% Polymarket price on the merger is the wrong price." — 2026-05-26-podcast-the-compound-and-friends-spacex-ipo-with-rupert-mitchell-consumer (2026-05-26)
Sources
Related
Cross-links — fill in.