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Tesla

Notes

Tesla

One-line summary: US-listed automaker and energy-storage company (NASDAQ: TSLA); Q2 2026 printed a core-auto delivery recovery against opex/capex absorption assigned to robotaxi / Optimus / AI compute, with energy a real but still-small P&L slice and FSD subscriptions the only fetched software-monetization count.

What it is

Tesla, Inc. is a US-listed automaker and energy-storage company headquartered at Gigafactory Texas in Austin, with reportable segments automotive and energy generation and storage. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.

Why it matters to stock-market

The latest fetched print (Q2 2026, posted 22 July) is a core-auto recovery (deliveries +25% YoY, revenue beat) against opex/capex absorption (operating margin 1.4%, free cash flow negative, FY26 capex guided above $25B) that management assigns to robotaxi fleet, AI compute, and Optimus — not to a disclosed robotaxi revenue line. Energy is a growing, still-small slice (~11% of Q2 revenue) with a long-dated backlog. FSD subscriptions are the only fetched software-monetization number that already hits automotive ancillary revenue. The 21 August close still sits at a triple-digit forward earnings multiple. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.

Autonomy product detail lives on the autonomous-driving thread's tesla-fsd page. This page keeps FSD / robotaxi as P&L and guidance claims only.

Valuation (August 21, 2026)

2026-08-28 mark (2026-08-27 closes, twelvedata): TSLA $354.81 (+2.60%, -28.9% off 52w high)

Same-session stockanalysis mark (fetched, not invented): market cap $1.43T; EV $1.41T; TTM PE 376.55 / forward PE 190.62; P/S 13.83; TTM revenue $103.62B / NI $3.81B / EPS $1.08; cash $43.52B / debt $16.08B. Multiples are stockanalysis-computed, not Tesla-disclosed. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.

AP, on earnings day 22 July 2026, said the stock was down just under 17% year-to-date as of that session — a July mark, not the 21 August close. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.

Gage's judgment (as of 2026-09-21)

Gage, 21 Sep 2026, via Leo (for PR #267 empty slot / Oct 1 Roadster). Hold the directed 10. No add into Oct 1. Halo event next to the FSD/robotaxi prior — not a new thesis. Confirm (for near-term reaction): livestream + thruster demo as expected. Break (for near-term reaction): no-show / production re-based into 2026 as if imminent. Production clock still ~2027–28 unless re-based on stage. Gage's judgment, not grain / not issuer fact. Last-price as-of stays the vault last already on this page (Aug twelvedata / stockanalysis block — not restamped). Not a buy/sell/size. Not a paper sleeve. No source URL for the judgment — do not invent one. No BotBoard card.

Key facts

  • Ticker: TSLA (NASDAQ). From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • Q2 2026 print (period ended 30 June 2026; earnings posted 22 July). Total revenue $28.236B (+26% YoY); automotive $20.516B; energy generation and storage $3.139B (+13%); services and other $4.581B (+50%). Gross profit $4.751B / GAAP GM 16.8%. Operating income $398M / OM 1.4%. GAAP NI $1.114B / diluted EPS $0.32. Capex $5.789B; FCF −$1.092B; cash + ST investments $43.524B (30 Jun). R&D $2.371B. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026 (SEC Q2 Update Ex. 99.1 + Form 10-Q).
  • AP recorded street at $26.42B revenue / $0.53 EPS versus Tesla's beat-on-revenue / miss-on-EPS. Treat as AP's attributed street mark, not a Tesla primary. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • Capex guidance: CFO Vaibhav Taneja said H2 capex rises further and drives full-year spending above $25B, with the spend cycle continuing 2–3 years for robotaxi fleet, AI compute, and Optimus. The 10-Q also records a Q2 $1.95B AI-hardware asset acquisition paid in Tesla stock/awards ($1.73B contingent). From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • Auto deliveries (8-K Ex. 99.1, 2 July 2026): produced 451,758 / delivered 480,126 (Model 3/Y 467,762; other models 12,364); +25% YoY deliveries; 15 days of supply; 9.7M cumulative. AP's "480,216" is off by 90 — use the 8-K. Regulatory-credit revenue $146M (from $439M a year earlier). Automotive GM excluding credits 16.3% (from 19.2% in Q1). From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • Energy storage (company line of business — not a new thread). Q2 deployed 13.5 GWh (second-best quarter; +41% YoY; +53% vs Q1's 8.8 GWh). Energy revenue $3.139B vs COGS $2.499B → gross profit $640M → 20.4% energy GM. 10-Q: YoY energy revenue up primarily on more Megapack deployments, lower Megapack ASP, fewer Powerwalls; COGS rose on mix plus unfavorable warranty adjustments. Taneja: energy GM fell from 39.5% to 20.4% on (1) ~$240M vendor-cell warranty true-up on legacy deployments, (2) Q1 tariff benefits >$200M that did not repeat, (3) guided-down industrial ASPs; long-term he expects energy GM to normalize in the mid- to low-20% range. Energy RPO (contracts >1 year): $10.05B unsatisfied, of which $4.56B in the next 12 months; energy deferred revenue $2.31B. Related-party: $318M revenue / $242M COGS from SpaceX Megapack purchases in Q2. Capacity named in the Update: CA Megapack 40 GWh, NV Powerwall >6 GWh, Shanghai Megapack 20 GWh (all in production); Texas Megapack commissioning; Megapack 3 / Megablock "on track" for 2026. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • FSD as a line of business (P&L / monetization only). Active FSD subscriptions 1.48M at Q2-end (+56% YoY; includes upfront + monthly, excludes free trials). Taneja: 1.5M paid customers globally, 55% upfront / 45% subscription; North America Q2 deliveries ~55% FSD subscription at delivery; "the bulk of the growth in FSD monetization will come from subscriptions as we removed the purchase option in most markets." Update: record NA attach, over 55% of new deliveries including FSD subscriptions. 10-Q deferred-revenue pool that includes FSD (Supervised) plus connectivity, Supercharging, and OTA: $4.05B at 30 June 2026. Tesla does not break out a standalone FSD dollar in the fetched 10-Q or Update. A search-only Fool annualization ($1.8B) was not fetched — do not treat it as a Tesla disclosure. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • Robotaxi (guidance / ops — no fetched revenue). Update: live in seven major metros; Texas + Florida listed as "Ramping Unsupervised"; Phoenix / Las Vegas "Preparations Underway"; Bay Area is FSD (Supervised) under CA TCP # TCP0046782 – A. Cybercab started production at Gigafactory Texas. Ashok Elluswamy (company claim): early v15 on the robotaxi fleet; 380,000 unsupervised miles across six cities / "zero notable incidents." Treat as first-party and unaudited — see fsd-safety-data-validity on the autonomous-driving thread. Musk: Cybercab needs chassis-specific miles before volume deployment. No fetched robotaxi revenue, rides, or paid-mile dollar. QoQ paid-mile decline stories were search-only and are omitted. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.
  • China door-handle recall (auto hardware / regulatory — cost, brand, China access). Official SAMR recall-center notice dated 2026-08-21 (S2026M0098V + S2026M0099V, effective 25 Sep 2026): 2,975,910 vehicles (domestic Model 3 973,156 + Model Y 1,956,713 + imported Model 3 35,590 + Model X 8,328 + Model S 2,123). Defect: interior emergency mechanical pull hard to identify because it matches trim color; LV failure after a severe crash can impede escape. Remedy: free warning labels + OTA window-drop (low disclosed unit cash; high China-brand / regulatory salience). Cash cost is not quantified in the fetched primaries. AP framed Tesla's ~2.98M units inside a >4M-vehicle China industry action and relayed a hidden-handle ban "starting next year" — the GB 48001-2026 standard page was not fetched. Same-day second recall S2026M0039I covers 2,740,642 domestic Model 3/Y for insufficient driver-attention monitoring (add cabin camera via OTA) — that action touches ADAS supervision and belongs on the FSD thread; the door-handle action is not an autonomy defect. From 2026-08-24-autoresearch-tesla-public-company-q2-2026.

Strengths (from a thesis-input perspective)

Weaknesses (from a thesis-input perspective)

Next-gen Roadster — Oct 1, 2026 pre-event brief

Halo / brand event, not a change to the Q2 FSD / robotaxi P&L prior on this page. Does not update deliveries, OM, FCF, >$25B capex, 1.48M FSD subs, or "no fetched robotaxi revenue." Autonomy product detail stays on tesla-fsd. Event-path checklists below are facts only, not marks. Gage's Oct 1 mark is filed under Valuation as judgment — see Gage's judgment (as of 2026-09-21) — not grain / not issuer fact. Not a trade. No buy/sell/size. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.

  • Date (primary): Thursday, October 1, 2026. Tesla X "Go for launch" (2026-09-12) stamped 10.01; Musk quote-post "New Tesla Roadster Unveil 10.01." Electrek and Not a Tesla App treat Oct 1 as locked; the Roadster product page countdown is reporter-fetched. Tesla.com/roadster returned 403 to the bot — do not cite a bot-retrieved HTML dump. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Time (invite / secondary): 8:30 PM Eastern / 5:30 PM Pacific. Invite-confirmed via Sawyer Merritt coverage, not IR-confirmed. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Venue (invite / secondary): Waco, Texas, ~90 minutes north of Giga Texas / near SpaceX McGregor. Exact street address not in the fetched reports. RSVP closed midnight Sep 16; invites non-transferable; 21+; food provided. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Livestream (expected, not a Tesla press release): Musk retweeted @techAU (2026-09-13) claiming an X livestream from Roadster-site markup. Electrek Sep 12 still said Tesla had not stated location or whether it would be live at teaser time. Open: live vs delayed thruster footage; Waco stage vs McGregor on the same stream. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • What is likely shown vs street-legal product (reported, not Tesla IR): August reporting summarizing The Information (via Electrek): thruster demo at/near McGregor; car remotely operated, nobody inside; spectators kept far back; concept scaled back toward a hover; limited-edition thruster car expected not street-legal; street Roadster remains a separate undelivered product with 2017-era $200k / $250k Founders reservation structure still cited by secondary coverage. Design path (clean-sheet carbon tub; von Holzhausen; late-2025 two-seat prototype) is secondhand until Tesla shows the car. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Production clock: Nov 6, 2025 shareholder meeting (primary via Electrek paraphrase): Musk set an April 1, 2026 demo and said production was "probably about 12–18 months after" — implying ~2027–2028, not 2026 deliveries. That April date slipped through late April → summer → now Oct 1. Each demo slip pushes the 12–18 month production clock unless Musk re-bases it on stage. Plant: Gigafactory Texas (Lars Moravy / secondary). A successful Oct 1 show does not by itself confirm 2027 SOP. Binding signal would be a stated production window, volume intent, or reservation conversion terms — none exist yet in the fetched set. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Event-path checklist (constructive near-term halo / narrative — not a mark): live thruster/hover that works on camera; unveiled street-legal production-intent car with price near $200k / $250k and a named production year; dated reservation conversion path; unexpected software/Autonomy cameo (unlikely as the main act). From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Event-path checklist (would tend to fade a near-term pop — not a mark): demo fails / heavily edited / cancelled; show is only a non-street thruster stunt with no production date and no street car; specs walk back 2017 claims without a compensating story; event used mainly as SpaceX/Tesla merger theater without product substance (Electrek editorial — treat as opinion; absence of production dates is the fact pattern). Another date lock and teaser alone is described as already in the price for many holders. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Beside tesla-fsd / robotaxi: halo / Musk-narrative / reservation-holder optics. Weak as evidence for the autonomy P&L thesis unless the reveal unexpectedly ships autonomy news. Demo ≠ deliveries — same discipline as Cybercab / robotaxi demos that print ops claims without revenue. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.
  • Do not stamp: FAA TFR / airspace claims (tertiary blogs, not independently verified). Reuters Aug 14 Information URL returned 401/404 to the bot; thruster/demo claims lean on Electrek's summary. No last-price in this clip — do not invent one. Gage's Oct 1 mark is filed under Valuation as judgment — see Gage's judgment (as of 2026-09-21) — not grain. From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.

Open questions

  • When does robotaxi print as revenue, rides, or paid miles? None of those were in the fetched Q2 package.
  • Does energy GM actually normalize to Taneja's mid- to low-20s band once the vendor-cell true-up is behind it?
  • What is standalone FSD dollar revenue? The $4.05B deferred pool mixes FSD with connectivity / Supercharging / OTA.
  • will-nhtsa-ea26002-trigger-fsd-recall remains open on the autonomous-driving thread (not updated in this company-level pass).
  • Company robotaxi safety claims vs fsd-safety-data-validity — do not treat Elluswamy's 380k-mile figure as third-party validated.
  • Oct 1: livestream live vs delayed; Waco stage vs McGregor thrusters (one event or two sites / tape)? Street car vs A71 track toy — both, or only the thruster special? Has the Nov 2025 "12–18 months after demo" window slipped with the ~6-month demo slip? From 2026-09-21-tsla-next-gen-roadster-reveal-oct-1-2026-pre-event-brief.

Sources

Related

  • tesla-fsd — autonomy product / safety / regulation (physical home: autonomous-driving thread; not duplicated here). Oct 1 Roadster does not update that page's product facts.
  • fsd-safety-data-validity
  • elon-musk
  • spacex — Q2 related-party Megapack purchases; McGregor adjacency on the Oct 1 invite is venue color, not an SPCX P&L update
  • intel / terafab — existing foundry / consortium mentions of Tesla as a customer (not re-litigated from this source)
Referenced by
Entities
Tesla FSD
Sources
TSLA next-gen Roadster reveal — Oct 1, 2026 pre-event brief