psychology

refreshed 1, created 0, skipped 0 in this context

• refreshed decisions-as-bets ← group-decision-hygiene, kill-criteria, pre-mortem-analysis — Klein crystal-ball ritual vs Duke red team; Sonkin psychological safety; not if-then quit rules

Multi-context source (vault/sources/) — also tagged for projects/stock-market.

Speaker-aware (AssemblyAI; named: Gary Klein, Paul Johnson, Paul Sonkin, Ted Seides - 1/2). Capital Allocators summer-series replay of the 2019 pre-mortem conversation. Stock-market treated this as craft/zero-novelty; psychology takes the decision-science ritual.

• Created gary-klein (person, 4 quotes on pre-mortem-analysis / group-decision-hygiene).
• Created paul-johnson (person, 2 quotes): “what could go wrong” kills the method.
• Created paul-sonkin (person, 2 quotes): tip-of-the-tongue knowledge + psychological safety. Aliases for transcript garbles (Salkin / Sunken).
• Created pre-mortem-analysis (concept): crystal ball / plan has failed / ~two minutes / leader first. Distinct from red teams and from kill-criteria.
• Updated group-decision-hygiene: leader-sets-the-room + safety chips from Klein / Sonkin.
• Updated kill-criteria: related-link only (same “imagine failure in advance” family; different ritual).
• Ted Seides: named host / interviewer; no thesis-grade claim. Not updated. Unlabeled C/G skipped.
• No mechanism. No project/stock-market tag on these pages (Duke pattern). Not routed to triangulate (not a newsroom method).

Extended 1, created 0, skipped 0

• extended decisions-as-bets ← extended ← approach-avoidance-investment-framework, investment-mistake-taxonomy

Created 1, refreshed 0, skipped 0

• created decisions-as-bets ← thinking-in-bets, resulting, group-decision-hygiene, bankroll-management, quitting-as-skill, kill-criteria, optionality, monkeys-and-pedestals, annie-duke

Multi-context source (vault/sources/) — also tagged for projects/stock-market.

Speaker-aware (AssemblyAI; named: Annie Duke, Ted Seides). Capital Allocators summer-series replay of the 2022 Quit conversation. Stock-market treated this as craft/zero-novelty; psychology takes grit/quit, kill criteria, optionality, and monkeys-and-pedestals as in-scope decision science.

• Updated annie-duke (person, +12 quotes across quitting-as-skill, kill-criteria, optionality, monkeys-and-pedestals).
• Updated ted-seides (person, +1 quote on monkeys-and-pedestals): his own fund-launch sequence as pedestal-before-monkey.
• Created quitting-as-skill (concept): grit and quit are the same decision; correct quits feel too early; identity is hardest to quit (Sears/Everest). Duckworth endorsed with complementary-skill caveat; grit-scale replication flagged as open (SCOPE), not as a finding from this source. No standalone grit page — the thesis is the pairing.
• Created kill-criteria (concept): precommit signals while not in it; Staw via Duke: "would I buy it today?" does not work; dual success metric (win or clean kill); Kahneman/Thaler quitting coach; Ron Conway two-month turnaround contract.
• Created optionality (concept): two-way doors (Bezos/Branson) buy margin of error on the start; dating analogy; parallel exploration as a way to not force a premature quit.
• Created monkeys-and-pedestals (concept): Astro Teller — bottleneck first, pedestals are false progress that snowball sunk cost (California HSR as disaster case).
• Updated bankroll-management: related-link to kill-criteria.
• No mechanism page — decision-science mental models, not ≥2-step forcing-function chains. Kahneman/Mauboussin/Duckworth/Teller/Thaler/Conway appear as intellectual context, not as person entities (they do not speak).

Multi-context source (vault/sources/) — also tagged for projects/stock-market.

Speaker-aware (AssemblyAI; named: Annie Duke, Ted Seides; skip unlabeled C). Capital Allocators summer-series replay of the 2018 Thinking in Bets conversation. Stock-market treated this as craft/zero-novelty; psychology takes the decision-science tools as in-scope.

• Created annie-duke (person, 10 quotes across thinking-in-bets, resulting, group-decision-hygiene, bankroll-management): former poker player / cognitive-psych ABD who operationalizes Kahneman–Tetlock–Gilbert–Kahan for practitioners.
• Created thinking-in-bets (concept): all decisions are bets on beliefs; "wanna bet?" forces Gilbert's skipped vetting step; Kahan: intelligence amplifies motivated reasoning.
• Created resulting (concept): judge process not outcome; deconstruct the trade before the result; hide outcomes from reviewers. (Episode never uses the book-term "resulting"; same rule.)
• Created group-decision-hygiene (concept): Tetlock's three (two disagree, one referees) + Mertonian CUDOS; don't infect the room with a prior; red teams invert the team-player problem.
• Created bankroll-management (concept): Kelly/risk-of-ruin plus loss limits as the lesser irrationality versus tilt-driven luck-vs-skill self-diagnosis.
• Updated approach-avoidance-investment-framework: related-link to thinking-in-bets.
• Ted Seides: present as named host; no thesis-grade claims in this replay (intro/sponsor/reactions). Not updated. Speaker C skipped (unlabeled).
• No mechanism page — these are decision-science concepts, not ≥2-step forcing-function chains.

Speaker-aware (AssemblyAI; named: Ted Seides, Josh Steiner; A/C/E unresolved labels treated as source-attributed). Capital Allocators Ep. 502 — Ted Seides interviews Josh Steiner (SSW Partners co-founder, Yale IC member, former US Treasury Chief of Staff) on mistakes across investing levels. First substantive source ingested into this thread; produces the decision-making-psychology seed material.

• Created josh-steiner (person, 4 quotes across approach-avoidance-investment-framework and investment-mistake-taxonomy): coined the approach-avoidance reframe as an operational substitution for risks-vs-attractions framing; surfaces the diary-subpoena Treasury mistake as a structurally interesting fifth-category (impressionistic-personal-records-under-evidentiary-frame) of decision-making error.
• Created ted-seides (person, 1 quote): Capital Allocators host; brackets the episode framing.
• Created approach-avoidance-investment-framework (concept): replaces standard risks-vs-attractions framing with "what do you have to believe to be true in order to be attracted to this?" — converts an affect-balance into a falsifiable hypothesis. Cross-link to behavioral-economics literature (Lewin field theory, Miller approach-avoidance conflict).
• Created investment-mistake-taxonomy (concept): four-level taxonomy (deal, business-management, people-management, IC-service) with different feedback latencies and different cognitive failure modes. Implication: mistake-tracking systems that don't separate levels over-learn from deals and under-learn from the slower-feedback categories.
• No causal-chain mechanism page created — Steiner's contributions are framings and taxonomies, not multi-step causal arguments with falsifiable empirical links. The approach-avoidance and taxonomy concepts are the right home for this material.
• A/C/E speaker labels were heuristic-fallback (AssemblyAI returned them as unresolved); attributed claims are limited to Ted Seides and Josh Steiner. The unnamed labels appear in the source body but no quotes are attributed to entity pages from them.

Thread psychology scaffolded via /thread-create.

• Scope: catch-all for psychology broadly (behavioral, cognitive, clinical, social, developmental, evolutionary), preferring evidence-based findings over pop framing. See SCOPE.md for details.