RethinkX
RethinkX
One-line summary: Think tank founded in 2016 by tony-seba and James Arbib that forecasts technology-driven sector disruptions using the cost-curve / S-curve framework.
What it is
RethinkX publishes sector "Rethinking" reports (transportation, energy, food, materials, "Rethinking Humanity") built on the thesis that converging, exponentially-improving cost curves disrupt sectors along an S-curve from ~1-2% to ~80% penetration, and that incumbents/analysts systematically underestimate the speed and scale by extrapolating linearly and assuming "all else equal."
Why it matters here
RethinkX is the most fully-worked statement of the disruption framework this thread studies — including its named methodological critique of incumbent cost accounting (the "Great Stranding" argument that conventional LCOE math overvalues coal/nuclear/gas and undervalues solar+battery). It is also a useful caution on source incentives: RethinkX is an advocate, so its forecasts are directional arguments, not neutral base cases.
Key facts
- Founded 2016 (Tony Seba + James Arbib).
- Core claims: five foundational sectors (information, energy, food, transportation, materials) disrupted 2020-2033 with 10×+ cost reductions and ~90% fewer resource inputs.
- Transportation (2017): Transportation-as-a-Service cheaper than ownership by 2030.
- Energy (2021): "Great Stranding" — LCOE flaw drives capital misallocation toward fossil/nuclear.
- Criticism: timelines over-optimistic; predictions conditional on full autonomy in the early 2020s; profit-motive critiques; Wikipedia editors note no evidence earlier timed predictions materialized on schedule.