Tony Seba
Tony Seba
One-line summary: Author/educator and co-founder of RethinkX; the most prominent popularizer of cost-curve-driven technology disruption and the S-curve adoption thesis.
What it is
Tony Seba (with James Arbib) co-founded the think tank rethinkx in 2016. His thesis applies the technology-adoption-s-curve and wrights-law to argue that converging cost curves (see technology-convergence) trigger fast, non-linear sector disruptions that mainstream analysts miss by extrapolating linearly.
Why it matters here
Seba is the central practitioner voice for this thread's investing translation — and his track record is the most instructive caveat in the whole framework: his cost-curve forecasts have been notably right and early, while his adoption-timing forecasts have missed badly. This is the empirical basis for the thread's core principle (cost forecastable, timing not — see forecastability-of-technological-progress).
Key facts
- Right (cost curves): as early as 2010 forecast solar becoming the cheapest electricity in most of the world by the 2020s — "widely dismissed at the time as overly optimistic" — and his solar/battery cost calls came true (utility solar < ~4¢/kWh, ~$100/kWh packs).
- Wrong/late (adoption timing): 2017 — 95% of US vehicle-miles via autonomous Transportation-as-a-Service by 2030 (<18¢/mile); 2018 — a production-ready fully-autonomous vehicle "within ~1,000 days"; cheap robotaxis; used-ICE prices to ~zero. All well behind.
- Pending/contested: food disruption (manufactured protein 5× cheaper by 2030, 10× by 2035; US cattle −50% by 2030).
- Critics' framing: "right spot, wrong timeframe"; point forecasts "unlikely to be precisely right," likely to "miss by a lot"; possible attention/profit incentive.