Schneider National (SNDR)

US truckload and intermodal carrier; ~70% of truckload revenue is dedicated (versus 34% pre-pandemic). Named as a candidate ticker on the freight chain since 2026-06-10; became a cited source on 2026-08-13 when its Q2 2026 call supplied the evidence that graduated that chain.

Valuation (August 26, 2026)

Last: $35.22 at the Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT close. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print.

Gage's judgment (as of 2026-08-27)

Gage last: $35.24 (Thursday NightDesk; not the vault last-price). 12–18 months. Upside: about 20% ($42) if double-digit renewals hold and the H2 dedicated-customer hole is small. Downside: about 25% ($26) if the lost account is large or housing/freight stays soft. What would change it: they size the customer loss; FY26 guide is cut; they add capacity into the tightness. Gage's judgment, not issuer fact. From 2026-08-27-gage-judgment-on-sndr-and-wern-12-18-months.

Next earnings (labeled listed vs company-confirmed)

• Company-confirmed: none. Neither IR calendar has posted a Q3 2026 date. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print.
• Listed (street, not IR): SNDR Q3 Oct 28, 2026. Other unfetched calendars said SNDR Oct 29 — left as an open listed-date disagreement; Oct 29 is not treated as fetched. FXEmpire EPS/revenue estimates were not copied. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print. Same street-date split as werner-enterprises (working listed 28 Oct / Yahoo 29 Oct est.; IR empty). From 2026-08-28-trucking-rate-and-capacity-prints-into-the-oct-28-wern-call. Q2 print not rewritten.

What it tells us

• CEO jim-filter categorized the market as "driver-constrained" on the Q2 2026 call (2026-07-30) — the first-party attribution the truckload chain had lacked since 2026-07-16, when the record LMI price print turned out confounded by the Hormuz fuel shock. He named the enforcement stack explicitly: "non-domicile CDL usage, English language proficiency, illegal cabotage, entry-level driver training, and ELD tampering." (From 2026-08-13-autoresearch-truckload-capacity-structural-exit-and-broker-liability)
• Sized the remaining runway: "roughly half of the non-compliant capacity is left" to exit through next year. ⚠ A single estimate, of a quantity nobody measures directly, from a party whose pricing improves if it is true — the least corroborated load-bearing number in driver-supply-removal-to-truckload-contract-rate-inflection. (Same source)
• Rate realization: network revenue per truck per week +16% YoY; price renewals "accelerated with average price increases in the quarter of double digits"; spot rates "exceed contract rates at a level that has historically preceded more meaningful contract rate improvement." (Same source)
• Q2 FY2026 official print (three months ended June 30, 2026): operating revenues $1,568.7M vs $1,420.5M (+10%); income from operations $71.4M vs $55.0M (+30%); diluted EPS $0.28 vs $0.20; adjusted diluted EPS $0.29 vs $0.21. Official Truckload revenue per truck per week $4,162, up $198 / +5% vs Q2 2025 — total Truckload, not the Network +16% call line above. Leave both; different units. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print.
• Guidance raised on cut capex: 2026 EPS to $0.90–$1.10 from $0.70–$1.00; net capex to $350–400M from $400–450M, per CFO darrell-campbell. Raising earnings while reducing capex is the behaviour that makes the price durable — the carrier is not adding capacity into its own tightness. (From 2026-08-13-autoresearch-truckload-capacity-structural-exit-and-broker-liability)
• No FY26 RPT guide. Printed Q2 Dedicated RPT "modest" / "up modestly." Filter: Dedicated RPT improvement expected in Q3. From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print.
• Capex mix (not a fleet-expansion guide): Campbell — plan "continues to reflect the use of CapEx to improve our age of fleet"; the cut is "lower need for trailing equipment." Q2 net capex $84M vs $53M "primarily reflecting our efforts to improve the age of tractor fleet." Investment will also "support growth across intermodal, especially dray capacity, and in dedicated, particularly in specialty equipment." Mix: mostly fleet-age / trailing-efficiency; some dedicated/specialty and intermodal-dray growth spend. Do not flatten to "pure replacement." From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print.
• Admitted risks (falsifier material): Campbell prepared — "we're anticipating the loss of a large dedicated customer, which will be more evident in the second half of the year." Filter, asked to quantify, did not give dollars or trucks (talked portfolio quality / churn / RPT/week). Unsized. Leave open. Do not file FreightWaves "500 trucks" as this loss — the transcript "500 new trucks sold year-to-date" is dedicated sales, not the departing customer. (From 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print; Campbell line also in 2026-08-13-autoresearch-truckload-capacity-structural-exit-and-broker-liability.) Filter — inflationary pressure "primarily due to higher energy costs", and "interest rates continue to weigh on end markets like housing." (From 2026-08-13-autoresearch-truckload-capacity-structural-exit-and-broker-liability)
• Intermodal lags truckload: contract renewals moved "low single digits in the second quarter, now trending towards mid-single digits" — materially weaker than truckload's double digits, which is why the rail re-pricing leg is treated as lagging rather than coincident. (Same source)

Related

• driver-supply-removal-to-truckload-contract-rate-inflection — the chain its Q2 call graduated.
• broker-negligent-hiring-liability-to-freight-capacity-bifurcation — the separate capacity chain where asset-based carriers are the beneficiary side.
• trucking-regulatory-capacity-removal-to-tl-carrier-rate-recovery — originating hypothesis.
• jim-filter, darrell-campbell

Sources

• 2026-08-28-trucking-rate-and-capacity-prints-into-the-oct-28-wern-call — one-line: same street-date split as werner-enterprises (working listed 28 Oct / Yahoo 29 Oct est.). Q2 not rewritten. Vault last $35.22 and Gage ranges kept. This clip's retrieved 27 Aug mark $35.24 is not the vault last.
• 2026-08-27-gage-judgment-on-sndr-and-wern-12-18-months — Gage last $35.24 (Thursday NightDesk; not the vault last-price). 12–18 month judgment: upside about 20% ($42) / downside about 25% ($26). Gage's judgment, not issuer fact. Not a buy/sell/size. Encyclopedia not used.
• 2026-08-27-valuation-marks-sndr-wern-aug-27-close-plus-sndr-q2-print — Aug 26, 2026 4:00 PM EDT close $35.22 (stockanalysis Previous Close; Aug 27 $35.24 is not the mark). Official Q2 FY2026 print; dedicated-customer loss unsized; capex mix. Gage slot empty. Not a buy/sell/size. Encyclopedia not used.
• 2026-08-13-autoresearch-truckload-capacity-structural-exit-and-broker-liability — Q2 2026 call color that graduated the freight chain.