technology-adoption-s-curves

refreshed 1, created 0

• refreshed technology-s-curves

created 1

• created technology-s-curves ← technology-adoption-s-curve, diffusion-of-innovations, bass-diffusion-model, curve-steepness-and-adoption-velocity, wrights-law, forecastability-of-technological-progress, cost-curve-tipping-point-to-s-curve-adoption, disruptive-innovation, technology-convergence, s-curve-position-in-stock-evaluation, adoption-underestimated-or-overhyped, detecting-s-curve-inflection-in-real-time

Multi-context source (vault/sources/) — also tagged for stock-market and AI. Seat-spend decelerating vs token-consumption compounding; blended token unit price −67% YoY. The "0–2% ROI" stat traces to Aug-2025 MIT NANDA (contested methodology / COI).

• Adoption-measurement color on wrights-law / token-price decline as a learning-rate cousin.
• Did not adjudicate the existing Yardeni 15% margin / productivity+mix vs steroid / 0–2% ROI contradiction on the stock-market side. Left open.
• Zero-novelty ingest for a new s-curve page — novelty inventory: seat-vs-token divergence, 0–2% ROI provenance. All resolved as attach. Surface for review.

Multi-context source (vault/sources/) — also tagged for projects/stock-market and threads/artificial-intelligence. Ramez Naam: sodium-ion could drop battery cost 10x; first solar+battery baseload plants already affordable.

• Updated wrights-law (+1 live sodium-ion / solar+battery cost-curve claim)
• Updated ramez-naam (cross-context — physical home: stock-market)
• No new s-curve mechanism (Wright's Law page already exists; this is an exemplar, not a new model).

Flipped s-curve-position-in-stock-evaluation to status: resolved after:

1. Signal v3 adoption block live on brain + trader (PRs #76 / #31 merged 2026-07-09)
2. First stock-market mechanism backfill (7 chains) with cited adoption: + ## Adoption read

Design decisions (a)–(d) from the proposal remain the operational discipline. Thread research product is now fully wired into the stock-market evaluation layer.

Distilled thread understanding into stock-market's sources.

• Focus: full thread, framed for stock-market signal evaluation (the three Phase-2 encodings — remaining-runway, velocity→conviction/horizon, cost-tipping-point-as-catalyst — plus the cost-forecastable/timing-not caveat).
• Pages consulted: 3 entities, 8 concepts, 1 mechanism, 3 questions.

Folded the Seba/RethinkX practitioner synthesis into the wiki — heavy reinforcement of the canon plus the framework's named ideas, its mixed track record, and the investing translation.

• Created tony-seba (entity) + rethinkx (entity): the framework and its track record (cost calls right, adoption-timing calls wrong — "right spot, wrong timeframe").
• Created technology-convergence (concept): converging cost curves → "vast new possibility space" (smartphone example).
• Updated wrights-law: LLMflation (~1,000× in 3 yrs) and solar/battery parity as live cost-curve evidence.
• Updated technology-adoption-s-curve, curve-steepness-and-adoption-velocity, forecastability-of-technological-progress: RethinkX phases/tipping point, RMI's four feedback mechanisms, compressing time-to-50%, the cost-forecastable/timing-not asymmetry.
• Updated all three question pages with the 2026 segment-specific evidence (solar/storage beating forecasts; EV-battery/robotaxi undershooting) and the three candidate stock-evaluation encodings.
• Note: both sources are flat (no diarization) — source-attributed evidence throughout. No contradictions required adjudication; the "outpacing vs. undershooting" tension is recorded on the mechanism page rather than as a cross-source conflict.

Seeded the (empty) thread wiki from the peer-reviewed canon synthesis (17 papers across diffusion, Bass, Wright's Law, forecastability, asset-pricing).

• Created technology-adoption-s-curve (concept): the central S-curve concept — phases, logistic L/k/x₀, the several distinct generating mechanisms (Geroski 2000).
• Created wrights-law (concept): cost falls ~constant % per doubling; median learning rate ~21%; learning rates change for ~66% of techs (Carlino 2025).
• Created bass-diffusion-model (concept): p/q/M; the M-identification problem that makes the ceiling hard to estimate (Massiani 2015).
• Created diffusion-of-innovations (concept): Rogers' adopter segmentation and decision process.
• Created disruptive-innovation (concept) + clayton-christensen (entity): contested predictively (Weeks 2015, Lile 2024).
• Created forecastability-of-technological-progress (concept): Wright's Law best of six laws, ~2.5%/yr error (Nagy 2012; Farmer & Lafond 2015); cost forecastable, timing/ceiling not.
• Created curve-steepness-and-adoption-velocity (concept): network effects / increasing returns / lock-in set steepness (Klitkou 2015, Roedenbeck 2007).
• Created cost-curve-tipping-point-to-s-curve-adoption (mechanism, 5 steps): the spine chain (academic evidence on steps 1, 3, 4, 5).
• Created detecting-s-curve-inflection-in-real-time, adoption-underestimated-or-overhyped, s-curve-position-in-stock-evaluation (questions).

Thread technology-adoption-s-curves scaffolded via /thread-create.

• Scope: technology diffusion as S-shaped adoption curves (Rogers diffusion of innovations, Bass model, Wright's Law / experience curves, Christensen disruption, Tony Seba / RethinkX), framed for use as a stock-market evaluation lens — position on the curve (remaining runway), curve steepness (adoption velocity), and the cost-curve tipping point that triggers the knee.