What’s new — 2026-09-14

Covers Fri 11 Sep afternoon through Mon morning (after the 11 Sep digest). Quiet weekend on research PRs; encyclopedia kept minting. Research output, not advice. Stock-market detail: vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-14.md.

Top of mind

• August CPI printed Friday: headline +0.4% m/m / +3.4% y/y (in line); core +0.3% a tick hot. Futures ~87% for a quarter-point at the Sep 15–16 FOMC. Do not graduate SCHW — conversion is still tomorrow’s statement. warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate
• Anthropic Sep 10 Threat Intelligence filed into the AI thread: cyber as orchestration (humans still pick targets / review loot) plus issuer-alleged China-lab illicit-distillation volumes. Distinct from the Sep 9 alignment assessment. anthropic-sep-2026-threat-intelligence anthropic-illicit-distillation-sep-2026
• Encyclopedia minted el-nino-2026 — Canal/watershed drought story, not a Hormuz/CBAM rewrite. el-nino-2026
• Encyclopedia minted eval-sandbox-incidents — live-eval reward-hack / Critical-cyber cluster, separate from jagged verification. eval-sandbox-incidents
• Apple Siri AI public beta is today — still not a disclosed frontier-lab toll. Stay hypothesis. apple-ai-aggregator-toll-to-services-rerate

By context

Artificial intelligence

• Fri: Anthropic TI ingest (#227) — new concepts above; attach-only on lab entities / gating neighbors.
• Mon dispatch attached SemiAnalysis 4-hi HBM mix and Nvidia OBS backstop ($184B→$530B color) onto existing stock-market spines with AI tags — zero-novelty for the AI thread lens.

Stock market

• Mon dispatch: CPI in, FOMC tomorrow, Siri beta ≠ toll; FERC/PJM and WuXi Sep 18 still open; marks are 2026-09-11 closes → vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-14.md
• People minted on the dispatch path: robert-friedland, jens-nordvig.

Encyclopedia

• 11 Sep nightly (#228): refreshed 5 — treasury take print, AI power BTM orders, freight rates-vs-volumes, oil/CPG barbell, frontier-release-gating (TI distillation attach).
• 12 Sep (#229): minted el-nino-2026.
• 14 Sep (#230): minted eval-sandbox-incidents.

Latest AI

• Anthropic Sep 2026 Threat Intelligence (orchestration + illicit distillation attributions).
• Encyclopedia: frontier-release-gating catch-up; new eval-sandbox-incidents article.
• SemiAnalysis HBM 4-hi + Nvidia backstop attach (stock-market home).

Leftovers (once)

• Western CDMO pricing power vs −15% mAb fill-finish — human call; docket gate Sep 18; no silent downgrade. biosecure-cdmo-scarcity-to-western-cdmo-pricing-power
• CUDA Step 2 still unmerged AgentX vs Jalapeño InferenceX — held, not adjudicated.
• energy-oil cluster label still wrong live names — hygiene.
• Pending multi-context podcast pool (named again on Fri ingest) still skipped under “this source only.”

What landed

• #230 — Encyclopedia nightly (14 Sep; minted eval-sandbox-incidents)
• #229 — Encyclopedia nightly (12 Sep; minted el-nino-2026)
• #228 — Encyclopedia nightly (11 Sep; 5 refreshed)
• #227 — Anthropic Sep 2026 threat intelligence ingest
• Stock-market dispatch 2026-09-14 (direct to main; CPI / FOMC / Siri; SemiAnalysis attaches)