What’s new — 2026-09-16

Covers Tue 15 Sep afternoon through Wed morning (after the 15 Sep digest). Research output, not advice. Stock-market detail: vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-16.md.

Top of mind

• FOMC statement day: Warsh statement, SEP, and presser are today (2:00 / 2:30 p.m. ET). Futures still ~93% for a quarter-point to 3.75–4.00%. Do not graduate SCHW off FedWatch. warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate
• Gemini 3.8 Live landed: Google’s speech-to-speech / Live API pair (Live + Live Extended Thinking) filed as its own entity — same “3.8” generation label as Flash, different modality SKU. Issuer prices cited; AA STS 82.6 kept Google-cited only. gemini-3-8-live
• Rubin AgentX color onto the moat article: SemiAnalysis Sep 15 Vera Rubin NVL72 ~67× throughput per TCO vs GB300 Dynamo TRT-LLM at 170 TPS (early software). Does not merge AgentX vs Jalapeño. nvidia-inference-moat
• WuXi / FERC still open: docket gate Sep 18 (two days); FERC still silent on PJM backstop. Western CDMO contradiction still a human call. biosecure-cdmo-scarcity-to-western-cdmo-pricing-power pjm-capacity-prices-to-nuclear-premium

By context

Artificial intelligence

• Tue 3pm: Gemini 3.8 Live + Live Extended Thinking source + [[gemini-3-8-live]] entity (#237). Adjacent only to Flash / Lyria / Transcribe — not collapsed.
• Native X still blocked on the spend-cap; provenance has no X permalinks.

Stock market

• Wed dispatch: FOMC statement this afternoon; Columbia restates Brent ~$107 / diesel >$6 after July MOU collapse; SemiAnalysis caps genuine siting delay ~2.3 GW vs +38 GW 2027 IT — ceiling, not a new AI-infra chain → vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-16.md

Encyclopedia

• 16 Sep nightly (#238): refreshed nvidia-inference-moat, us-freight-capacity (C.H. Robinson truckload ~30% above 2025); extended foundry-second-source (Terafab as Giga Texas R&D) and spacex-orbital-compute (Flight 14 then catch Flight 15 + Shotwell chip). Minted 0.

Latest AI

• Gemini 3.8 Live / Live Extended Thinking — first midweek AI-thread clip since Fri Anthropic TI (#227).
• Encyclopedia: Rubin NVL72 AgentX catch-up on nvidia-inference-moat; Terafab restatement stays terrestrial R&D, not orbital watts.

Leftovers (once)

• Western CDMO pricing power vs −15% mAb fill-finish — human call; docket gate Sep 18. biosecure-cdmo-scarcity-to-western-cdmo-pricing-power
• CUDA Step 2 still unmerged AgentX vs Jalapeño InferenceX — held, not adjudicated.
• energy-oil cluster label still wrong live names — hygiene.
• Pending multi-context podcast pool still skipped under “this source only.”
• user-X monthly spend-cap 403 still blocks Alfred’s idle X pulls / paused 10am ingest (credits ~$133 unused).

What landed

• #238 — Encyclopedia nightly (16 Sep; 2 refreshed, 2 extended, mint 0)
• #237 — Gemini 3.8 Live + Live Extended Thinking into the AI thread
• #236 — What’s new digest 2026-09-15 (prior morning)
• Stock-market dispatch 2026-09-16 (direct to main; FOMC statement day)