What’s new — 2026-09-15

Covers Mon 14 Sep afternoon through Tue morning (after the 14 Sep digest). Research output, not advice. Stock-market detail: vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-15.md.

Top of mind

• FOMC day one: the two-day meeting started this morning; Warsh statement, SEP, and presser are still Wed Sep 16 (2:00 / 2:30 p.m. ET). Futures still ~87–93% for a quarter-point to 3.75–4.00%. Do not graduate SCHW off day-one silence. warsh-higher-for-longer-to-brokerage-nii-rerate
• SPCX NDX map refreshed: GIW daily pro forma weight ~1.28% → ~2.82% (indicative; final later this month). Prior JPM ~1.51% / ~$12.4B kept as superseded attributed secondary — no invented dollar flow. spacex-ipo-index-inclusion-mechanic spacex
• Gage on SPCX: hold the directed 10; no add into Sep 21 rebalance / Sep 24 day-105 unlock week; no new sleeve. Vault last restamped $147.76 (Mon Sep 14 ~9:36 AM ET, NightDesk / Leo). spacex
• Encyclopedia catch-up overnight: refreshed orbital-compute (GIW path), Nvidia OBS financing ($184B→$530B reading), oil/CPI gasoline leg, and HBM 4-hi mix — mint 0. spacex-orbital-compute nvidia-gpu-financing
• AI thread quiet: no new clip since Fri Anthropic TI; weekday X pulls still blocked on the user-X monthly spend-cap 403.

By context

Artificial intelligence

• No same-day AI ingest Mon–Tue morning. Last AI-thread X source remains Anthropic Sep 2026 Threat Intelligence (#227).
• Encyclopedia extended hbm-and-packaging (4-hi inference $/bandwidth color) and refreshed nvidia-gpu-financing off the SemiAnalysis 10-Q reading already on the stock-market spines.

Stock market

• Tue dispatch: FOMC day one / statement tomorrow; Monday risk-off in book names; Siri beta live ≠ toll; FERC/PJM and WuXi Sep 18 still open → vault/projects/stock-market/dispatch/2026-09-15.md
• Mon afternoon: SPCX rebalance refresh + Gage hold/no-add + last-price restamp (#232–#234).

Encyclopedia

• 15 Sep nightly (#235): refreshed 4 — spacex-orbital-compute, nvidia-gpu-financing, oil-after-hormuz, hbm-and-packaging. Minted 0.

Latest AI

• Still no midweek AI clip (X connector spend-cap).
• Encyclopedia: Nvidia OBS / HBM mix catch-up onto existing articles (not new AI-thread wiki).

Leftovers (once)

• Western CDMO pricing power vs −15% mAb fill-finish — human call; docket gate Sep 18; no silent downgrade. biosecure-cdmo-scarcity-to-western-cdmo-pricing-power
• CUDA Step 2 still unmerged AgentX vs Jalapeño InferenceX — held, not adjudicated.
• energy-oil cluster label still wrong live names — hygiene.
• Pending multi-context podcast pool still skipped under “this source only.”
• user-X monthly spend-cap 403 still blocks Alfred’s idle X pulls / paused 10am ingest (credits ~$133 unused).

What landed

• #235 — Encyclopedia nightly (15 Sep; 4 refreshed, mint 0)
• #234 — SPCX last-price restamp $147.76 (NightDesk / Leo)
• #233 — SPCX Gage hold / no-add into Sep 21/24 week
• #232 — SPCX NDX Sep rebalance refresh (GIW ~1.28%→~2.82%)
• #231 — What’s new digest 2026-09-14 (prior morning)
• Stock-market dispatch 2026-09-15 (direct to main; FOMC day one)